IT Sector's Muted Q1 Trend Likely to Continue through FY26
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The Indian IT services industry has experienced muted growth during the first quarter earnings as clients across sectors continued to delay or defer discretionary projects due to macroeconomic uncertainty and cost pressures.
Despite some commentary on a better second half of the fiscal, CareEdge Ratings believes the Indian IT sector is expected to witness a flat revenue growth of 0-2 per cent in FY26 as compared to the previous year in terms of constant currency revenue growth. This is underpinned by a healthy deal pipeline poised to convert into wins over the near term, ensuring revenue visibility for the next few quarters.
"Increasing digitisation and rise in demand for emerging technologies like 5G, advanced data analytics, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, cyber-security, robotics and blockchain provide growth opportunities for Indian IT/ITeS firms," CareEdge said in a report.
It further stated that, "The uncertainty arising from tariffs and movements in the US market is a significant concern for the IT industry, as a large proportion of its revenues are derived from the US market. The IT-software industry has been re-aligning its offerings to cater to the evolving requirements of its clients with respect to emerging technologies to become more effective in the dynamic business environment. Growth remains muted in key markets, as clients are cautious in spending prioritizing cost optimisation and vendor consolidation."
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reported muted growth in core markets (except India) due to deferrals and decision-making delays in Q1. Deal TCV has been strong for last three quarters, up 7.4 per cent YoY, but revenue growth in core markets has been flat at -0.7 per cent YoY USD due to re-scoping, delay in ramp-up and elongation in deal tenure. Pace of client decision making did not improve in Q1. Management believes that uncertainty would persist until trade deals between US and all major countries are finalised. Management reiterated its target to grow better in international markets in FY26 versus +0.5 per cent YoY USD in FY25.
"We continue to value the company at 24x on Q3FY27-Q2FY28 EPS of INR 152.9 to arrive at our target price of INR 3,670. We continue to like TCS for better execution, profitability and return metrics in the industry," ICICI Securities said in a note.
Wipro grew marginally better than expected at -2 per cent in constant currency, within its guided range for Q1, led by the healthcare and technology verticals. Guidance for Q2FY26 is flat at the midpoint. With a strong TCV and two mega deals, focus shall be on execution of these mega deals.
"Though Wipro has indicated that H2FY26 will likely be better than H1 on the back of these deals, negative seasonality of H2 will also be at play. The company has indicated that margin might be impacted on upfront investment for large deals for a few of the quarters. WPRO has been losing clients and has trouble gaining broad-based growth traction across verticals. We factor in a -0.5 per cent IT services revenue USD growth print for FY26. We cut FY26–28E EPS by about 1–2 per cent and maintain 'Reduce' with a one-year forward target price of INR 240 on a target PE of 18x," ICICI Securities said.
LTIMindtree reported in-line revenue growth led by a recovery in consumer and healthcare segments, and healthy momentum in BFSI. EBIT margin improved about 50 basis points QoQ on expected lines, enabled largely by its focused margin improvement program. TCV wins have been healthy with TCV up 13.6 per cent YoY over the last three quarters.
"But this is yet to translate into revenue growth (5.3 per cent YoY USD over same period). Management is focussing on execution i.e. improving its large deal pipeline and win rates amidst a challenging macro environment and expects revenue growth momentum to improve from here on. We continue to value LTIMindtree at 22x on Q3FY27E to Q2FY28E EPS of INR 215 to arrive at a revised target price of INR 4,740. We maintain 'Reduce'. LTIM has higher exposure to its discretionary portfolio, constraining its growth in the current weak macro," ICICI Securities said.
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