Fantasy Football: Justin Boone's 2025 Strength of Schedule Matrix
[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season]
My model factors in many variables, including historical defensive data, offseason roster changes, new coaching staffs, home/road splits, individual player matchups, dome games and more.
However, let me be clear — you shouldn't decide whether to draft someone based on this table alone. Instead, let it serve as an additional data point to help break ties between players you're targeting.
It's also important to note that the impact on players at the extremes (green or red) will be much more significant than the differences among those in the middle range (yellow).
Fantasy Strength of Schedule Results
Quarterback Findings
It's nice to see Kyler Murray and C.J. Stroud holding down the two most favorable QB schedules, after a down year that saw both passers fall out of the top 12 in per game fantasy scoring at their position. The Texans have gone to great lengths to surround Stroud with more pass-catching talent, while Murray acknowledged that he needs to run more in 2025.
Justin Fields is one of the best value fantasy picks at the moment, which I recently outlined in my first article for Yahoo Fantasy. His rushing production immediately puts him in the QB1 conversation, but he will also benefit from the third-softest grouping of opponents. With no one threatening him atop the depth chart, Fields is set up to be a strong fantasy starter this season.
Before you panic about Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott being near the bottom of this list, just know that both passers are more than capable of overcoming tough matchups — especially considering their offenses feature two of the best receiver duos in the league. Even with the bad hand they've been dealt here, Burrow is a locked-in QB1 and Prescott is a solid QB2 who could easily flirt with top-12 numbers.
Running Back Findings
Bijan Robinson has moved ahead of Saquon Barkley as the top running back in my rankings and one of the reasons is a massive gap in terms of opponents. The Eagles' schedule isn't a major concern, but the Falcons' backfield will have the friendliest slate across the NFL. Robinson was the highest scoring fantasy back over the final 13 weeks, finishing as a top-12 fantasy back 10 times during that stretch. Get ready for him to dominate over the entire 2025 campaign.
James Conner has been undervalued in fantasy for as long as I can remember and that trend is continuing in this year's drafts. Since arriving in Arizona, the veteran has been the RB6, RB10, RB9 and RB14 in fantasy points per game (half PPR). Now, he gets to run against the fourth-easiest schedule for running backs this season. If you're worried about Trey Benson, you can easily draft them both in the fourth and 11th rounds, respectively.
Jahmyr Gibbs is the type of back who's matchup-proof, but should we be worried about his teammate, David Montgomery? The departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will certainly have an impact on the offense, as will the retirement of star center Frank Ragnow. On top of that, the Lions will battle with the worst fantasy schedule among RBs. Montgomery already dealt with a decline in carries, managing to overcome it by reaching the end zone 13 times. Unfortunately, with all the changes around him, banking on him getting home with touchdowns is becoming more risky.
Wide Receiver Findings
Garrett Wilson has been one of my favorite wideouts for a while and things are lining up for him to have a career year. Despite dealing with terrible quarterback play during his first two NFL campaigns and a bizarre Aaron Rodgers-led season this past year, Wilson has topped 1,000 yards on every occasion. Now, he'll get a chance to reunite with his college teammate Fields — who was responsible for DJ Moore's 96-catch, 1,364-yard, eight-touchdown effort with the Bears in 2023. The Jets lack high-end playmakers in the WR room, so having the No. 1 schedule for the position will help Wilson more than anyone. He's a strong fantasy WR2 with top-10 potential.
It's surprising we haven't brought up the 49ers yet, considering they have the fourth-best schedule for QBs and fifth-best for RBs. We'll give them a mention here, since they have the third-easiest string of opponents for receivers. So, the real question is, how will fantasy managers capitalize? Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from a torn ACL and MCL suffered in October. That puts his early season participation in doubt and could affect his entire campaign. That's why I'm investing heavily in George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall and even deep sleeper, Jacob Cowing.
As a George Pickens apologist, I never expected to be the one preaching caution about his fantasy outlook, but here we are. While the move from Pittsburgh to Dallas comes with a massive quarterback upgrade, it also lands him on an offense with an established and elite target-earner in CeeDee Lamb. To make matters worse, Pickens will have to contend with the most challenging fantasy schedule for wideouts. Though his presence will be a huge addition for the Cowboys' offense, he profiles as more of a fantasy WR3 — unless Lamb misses time.
Tight End Findings
It's hard to displace Brock Bowers as the TE1 overall, but Trey McBride isn't far behind. His 111 receptions, 147 targets and 1,146 yards put him one catch, six targets and 48 yards behind Bowers a year ago. The biggest problem — as we all know — was an often comical lack of touchdowns for a player with his kind of volume. The volatile nature of TD scoring should result in McBride getting across the goal line more regularly in 2025 and it doesn't hurt that he has the second-easiest fantasy schedule among tight ends. Did I mention he's also going almost a round later than Bowers?
Darren Waller coming out of retirement to play for the Dolphins was one of the more shocking developments this offseason. There are plenty of pros and cons when discussing a former elite fantasy tight end who's coming off a year away from the game and is about to turn 33 during the season. However, let the record show his schedule should fall into the pro column. Waller is in the green with the 10th-best TE slate. We'll see where his ADP ends up, but I'm keeping my expectations in check and viewing him as a late-round sleeper and dynasty stash only. It's rare for players to have meaningful fantasy efforts after coming out of retirement and he still has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle soaking up targets.
Travis Kelce and his fantasy managers have had a great run, but the signs of decline are there and the soon-to-be 36-year-old is no longer in the mix as a top fantasy tight end. Father Time isn't the only thing stacking up against Kelce either. The Chiefs have made serious investments in their receiving corps in recent years with Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown and intriguing rookie Jalen Royals. If everyone is healthy and available, Kelce will struggle to get anywhere near the volume he once did. He'll also have an uphill climb against the second-hardest schedule for his position. There will be weeks Kelce finds the end zone and delivers — they just won't be nearly as frequent.
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