Will China interfere in choosing the next Dalai Lama?
Traditionally, a Dalai Lama is found according to an ancient system of mystical rites, rather than chosen. The then humble farmer's son Lhamo Thondup was 'proclaimed' the Dalai Lama at the age of 2, based largely on his apparent ability to recognise sacred objects ('It's mine' he apparently exclaimed when presented with such relics). To Beijng's chagrin, the Dalai Lama has, in a recorded address, confirmed the succession will be based on 'past tradition', suggesting a similar process next time, and that only his office, the Golden Phodrang Trust, will be involved.
Although officially atheist, communist China demands the right of approval for state-sanctioned religious leaders (meaning a right of approval for a reincarnation it doesn't officially believe in). Chinese state media have already denounced the Dalai Lama's plan and proposed instead the drawing of lots from a Golden Urn – a method employed in the 18th century in a period when the Qing emperor held sway over Tibet.
The most recent similar discovery was in 1995 when the Dalai Lama identified the next Panchen Lama (the second highest figure in Tibetan Buddhism) but the child soon disappeared and is believed to be being held somewhere in China. Beijing proclaimed an alternative Panchen who turned out to be the son of two party cadres. This has been interpreted as a warning from Beijing of what may happen if the next Dalai Lama does not meet with their approval.
China's disapproval is quite likely. The most credible location for the next incarnation is India, where the Dalai Lama has lived for over 65 years and which is home to a Tibetan diaspora 100,000 strong. The least likely location is anywhere controlled by China. The Dalai Lama stated in a memoir published this year that his successor would be found in the 'free world', and instructed his followers to reject any candidate imposed by the authorities in Beijing.
If China does produce its own alternative Dalai Lama, it could create tensions with the US. In December 2020, President Trump signed into law The Tibet Policy and Support Act, which empowered the US government to impose sanctions on Chinese government officials if they interfered in the selection process of the next Dalai Lama.
One wonders whether the Chinese might be better to leave the whole process well alone. The Dalai Lama has proved to be neither inflexible nor dogmatic: he removed himself from politics in 2011 and advocates a 'third way' which acknowledges the uncontainability of China but seeks to protect Tibetan culture. He has said he will leave 'written instructions' for his successor which are likely to be in a similar vein.
Moreover, whoever the next Dalai lama is will have large sandals to fill and is unlikely to be as charismatic or affable. It is hard to think of a more engaging figure on the world stage. Sincere acolytes, plus a fair few 'Dharma bums', have flocked to his retreat in Dharamshala where an image of a peaceful paradise in exile has been assiduously cultivated. Like his fellow Nobel Peace prize laureate Mother Theresa, though with a better sense of humour, the Dalai Lama is almost universally admired and respected.
Like Mother Teresa, though, he does have critics, and not all of them are Chinese. Some would like to have seen him take an even stronger line with Beijing. Others see him as gullible. In Japan, his reputation took a dent when he allowed himself to be photographed with the cult leader Shoko Asahara (of the Aum Shinrikyo cult – the group behind the 1995 saron gas attack on the Tokyo subway) an error subsequently seized on by Beijing. The Dalai Lama said he was a 'funny little Japanese man'.
Nor is everyone as seduced as the likes of Richard Gere by the happy-clappy image of a Tibetan Shang-ri-la. Serious historians point to the repressive nature of the country led by a ruthless Buddhist elite in the past with violent intersectional conflicts and ordinary Tibetans treated as little more than serfs. As for the supposedly profound sacraments (a way of controlling the masses?) cynics might be put in mind of the Monty Python Holy Grail sketch satirising the mysticism of Camelot, where kings were chosen by the 'Lady of her Lake, her hand clad in the purest shimmering samite, held aloft Excalibur…'.
But such myths are potent and nobody likes a bully such as China. If a struggle is triggered for the global recognition of the Dalai Lama's legitimate successor, Beijing will have a hard time winning it. Chairman Mao seemingly recognised this way back in 1959 when he heard the Dalai Lama had fled to India. 'Then we have already lost the (propaganda) war' he reportedly said. And they have been losing it ever since.
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