German polls show Merz gaining ground as SPD loses – DW – 07/07/2025
Does Germany still need the Social Democratic Party (SPD), and if so — on what issues? This question was clearly hanging in the air at the party conference at the end of June. The center-left Social Democrats were shaken to their core by the February federal election, when the party recorded its worst result since 1887.
The result of the latest monthly poll is unlikely to lift their spirits. The SPD, which governs as junior partner with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) parties, has only continued to leak support since the election.
If national elections were held this Sunday, the SPD would only get 13%, according to the poll, conducted by the research institute infratest-dimap of 1,312 eligible voters between June 30 and July 2.
Led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU has gained slightly compared to June, rising to 30% (+1). The Alternative for Germany (AfD), the far-right, anti-immigrant party that is officially considered partly right-wing extremist by Germany's domestic intelligence agency, would still have 23% of the vote.
The Green Party and the Left Party, meanwhile, could expect to receive 12% (+/-0) and 10% (+1), respectively. Other parties, including the newly founded Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) (4%; +/-0) and the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) (3%; -1), would still not have enough of a vote share to enter the Bundestag.
The more left-wing members of the Social Democrats have accused their party leadership of doing too little to secure peace in Europe. In June, they issued a manifesto calling for "peacekeeping in Europe through defense capabilities, arms control, and rapprochement." For the signatories, this means more diplomacy with Russia, and less rearmament of the German armed forces.
Peace has historically been a signature priority for the SPD — going back to the days of Chancellor Willy Brandt's attempts to normalize relations with the Soviet Union in the late 1960s and early 1970s. But in the latest Deutschlandtrend poll, only 11% of respondents now said they considered the SPD to be a party of peace.
Some 31% trust the CDU/CSU most to establish and secure peace in Europe, while 14% named the AfD. As many as 57% of respondents said they were frightened by how lightly the term "readiness for war" is currently being discussed in Germany. However, there are big differences on the issue between Germans from the former West and the former East. — the term frightens significantly more people in the eastern German states.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, also of the SPD, has long been calling for the Bundeswehr to be "war-ready" again. Some 62% of those Germans surveyed in the agree with Pistorius and see this as a prerequisite for securing peace in Europe.
Not only that, 73% believe that Germany needs more soldiers to defend the country in an emergency. In their opinion, compulsory military service, which was suspended 2011, must be reintroduced.
Overall, more than half of those surveyed are in favor of reinstating compulsory military or civilian service for both men and women. However, there is a generational conflict here: About twice as many people under the age of 35 support another suspension than in the overall population.
Overall, armed conflicts, peacekeeping, and foreign policy is only the fourth most important issue for Germans — mentioned by 15% of those surveyed. Immigration/refugees (33%), the economy (21%), and social injustice (16%) were all mentioned more frequently.
Indeed, both the CDU/CSU and the SPD have said that Germany's economic recovery is the top priority. In fact, only 20% of Germans believe that the situation will actually improve in a year's time, while 41% believe that nothing will change, and 35% even expect the economic situation to deteriorate. However, two-thirds of those surveyed say that this will not affect their personal economic situation.
A good 60% of the population, meanwhile, believe that there is social injustice in Germany, the highest figure recorded by the Deutschlandtrend in 15 years. This perception is primarily due to the widening gap between rich and poor, while the tax and social security burden is perceived as too high or unequal. The gap between the lowest wage groups and the "citizen's income," as the basic unemployment benefit is called, is considered too small.
In Germany, single people who are temporarily or permanently unable to support themselves and are in need of assistance receive €563 ($663) per month, as well as support with their rent and heating bills. Couples receive €1,012. The overall costs of this have risen sharply recently, to over €50 billion per year.
The CDU wants to introduce tougher sanctions for citizens' income recipients who repeatedly refuse work. Currently, their benefits can be suspended for up to two months.
Overall, around half of those surveyed consider the existing sanctions to be appropriate, while 12% think they go too far, and 35% believe that the unemployed should be sanctioned more.
In their coalition agreement, the CDU/CSU and SPD agreed in principle to apply stricter rules. But the parties are arguing about what exactly that means. The CDU/CSU wants to drastically reduce spending across the board, while the Social Democrats are opposed. They say that no more than €4.5 billion can be saved in the next two years. Getting people into work also costs money, for example for further training and qualification measures.
Should the unemployed be placed quickly in reasonable jobs, or is it more important to provide them with appropriate training and further education so that they can find better jobs? Opinions are divided.
However, a look at party preferences shows that the majority of CDU/CSU and AfD supporters would prefer to get people into jobs quickly. Supporters of the Left Party and the Greens, on the other hand, prefer to prioritize training. Among SPD supporters, there are equal numbers of people in favor of both alternatives.
The dispute is not just about money. It is also a fundamental socio-political debate about how to treat people who need help and what basic social security in Germany should look like.While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter, Berlin Briefing.
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