Bursa maintains FY25 targets, despite market headwinds

New Straits Times

01-05-2025

KUALA LUMPUR: Bursa Malaysia Bhd has reaffirmed its financial year 2025 (FY25) key performance indicators (KPIs), maintaining its pre-tax profit target of RM369 million to RM408 million and aiming for 60 new listings with a combined market capitalisation of RM40.2 billion, despite facing ongoing market headwinds.
CIMB Securities reported that Bursa's management shared these updates during a recent analyst briefing.
However, the research house noted that a review of these KPIs could take place, with any revisions likely to be announced in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25).
Adopting a more cautious approach, Bursa has also confirmed plans to reduce its annual capital expenditure (capex) from the earlier range of RM50 million–RM60 million, as it prioritises key investments and considers deferring non-critical initiatives amid an increasingly challenging external environment.
CIMB said the regulator is actively managing operating expenses to offset softer revenue performance, with particular focus on marketing, professional fees, development spending, and variable staff costs.
In the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), Bursa's operating expenses rose 6.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) but fell 7.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), resulting in a cost-to-income (CTI) ratio of 50.4 per cent—higher than 46.5 per cent in 1Q24 but lower than 53.8 per cent in 4Q24. Bursa aims to bring its CTI ratio back below 50 per cent through continued cost containment efforts.
Following adjustments to its forecasts, CIMB now expects Bursa's FY25 earnings per share (EPS) to decline by 14.5 per cent YoY, with modest growth of 0.5 per cent and 0.8 per cent YoY anticipated in FY26 and FY27, respectively.
CIMB reiterated a 'Hold' call on Bursa Malaysia, lowering its discounted cash flow (DCF)-based target price to RM7.40 (from RM8.15), reflecting a forecast FY25 price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 22.6 times.
Bursa is currently trading at an FY25F P/E of 23.2 times, which is one standard deviation above its 10-year historical average of 18.1 times.
"We view Bursa as fairly valued at its current price level, supported by a dividend yield of 4.1 per cent," CIMB said.
For 1Q25, Bursa reported a 10 per cent YoY decline in net profit to RM67.5 million, down 2 per cent QoQ, missing analysts' expectations. The weaker earnings were mainly due to a 12.2 per cent YoY (5.5 per cent QoQ) decline in securities trading revenue, as the securities average daily value (ADV) dropped 11.9 per cent YoY and 5.3 per cent QoQ to RM2.8 billion.
However, revenue from derivatives trading rose 13.7 per cent YoY (down 12.2 per cent QoQ) on the back of a 21.3 per cent YoY increase in average daily contracts (ADC) to 102,184. Other trading revenues, including contributions from Bursa Suq Al-Sila', Bursa Gold Dinar, and BR Capital, rose 24.5 per cent YoY (up 12.1 per cent QoQ).
While the results slightly exceeded CIMB's earlier projections—helped by stronger-than-expected conference, exhibition, and other income—they still fell below expectations, as a weaker 2Q25 net profit is anticipated due to cautious market sentiment following US tariff announcements on April 2.
No dividend was declared for 1Q25, in line with expectations, CIMB said.
CIMB has also revised its ADV forecasts downward to RM2.7 billion for FY25 (from RM3.2 billion previously) and to RM2.8 billion and RM2.9 billion for FY26–FY27 (previously RM3.2 billion and RM3.3 billion).
The revisions reflect expectations of continued weak trading activity amid global trade tensions and evolving US tariff policies, which are expected to weigh on global growth, prolong inflationary pressures, and increase market volatility.
While Malaysia's domestic economy remains resilient, CIMB cautioned that global uncertainties could dampen investor and consumer confidence, capping Bursa's earnings upside potential.
"As such, we project ADV to ease to RM2.4 billion in Q225. A rebound is anticipated in 2H25 as market uncertainty fades and greater clarity emerges post-negotiations during the 90-day pause," CIMB said.
Hong Leong Bank Bhd (HLIB) maintains a HOLD call on Bursa but lowers its target price to RM7.70 (from RM8.83) following the earnings revision.
"Although the share price has fallen recently, we still find Bursa's risk-reward profile to be balanced. Considering ADV moderation over the next two quarters, along with the absence of immediate positive catalysts, we envision limited price upside in the near term. Nevertheless, the stock offers a fairly decent dividend yield of 4 per cent," it said in a note.
Looking ahead, HLIB expects ADV to remain subdued in the coming months (at lower RM2.2 billion till October 2025) as investors continue to embrace a cautious 'wait-and-see' posture amid prevailing market uncertainties.