13 Million Humanoid Robots Will Walk Among Us By 2035

Forbes

19 hours ago

Morgan Stanley predicts 13 million humanoid robots will work alongside humans by 2035, with costs ... More dropping to $10,000 annually, making them as affordable as cars.
Imagine a future where we share our world with walking, talking humanoid robots. It's not hard; we've all seen it in science fiction. But could it be just around the corner?
Well, a report recently published by Morgan Stanley suggests that it could be less than 10 years before millions of them are working alongside us, playing with us, protecting us and providing care. And by 2050, there could be one billion of them among us.
So, is society ready for this massive change? What might this robotic world of the future look like? And are there ethical questions that have to be considered if we are going to give walking, talking machines intelligence and make them serve us?
Let's take a look at what we know so far about humanoid robots, how they'll fit into our lives, and what opportunities and challenges they will create.
Robots On The Rise
By 2035, there could be 13 million robot members of society, and the cost of owning one could be around $10,000 a year. Roughly making them comparable to a car in terms of how affluent you'll need to be to afford one.
This accessible price point, analysts suggest, could mark a tipping point where they become commercially viable for a critical mass of businesses. This will lead to an explosion of demand, with the headcount of active robots potentially rising to a billion over the next 15 years.
It's a bold prediction for sure, but there are already examples of these robots being put to work. One model, known as Digit, created by Agility Robotics, is in use on factory floors in the U.S. It's capable of carrying out many tasks, such as lifting and stacking objects that previously could only be done by humans.
BMW also completed a pilot project where they introduced a humanoid robot called Figure 02 onto the floor of its assembly plant in Spartanburg, South Carolina. They are capable of opening doors, climbing stairs and using human tools.
And there are also plans to deploy them in a Houston factory owned by Foxconn, where they will be used to build Nvidia servers.
They can be used to provide care and companionship, too, as seen in several products and projects launched in South Korea, a country with a highly developed robotics industry.
Today's Challenges And Opportunities
All of this has become possible in recent years thanks to advances in AI that have led to better image recognition, language processing and fine motor controls. This means they can see and understand us, as well as move in a humanlike way by continually adjusting to their environment.
As advanced as they are, these early-generation humanoid robots are unlikely to have the generalized AI needed to create the kind of multi-tasking, mechanical humans we've watched in movies for decades, yet.
Instead, just as with today's other hyped AI applications, like ChatGPT or robotaxis, they will have a narrower range of capabilities, in line with specific jobs they're created for.
But these are, quite literally, just the first steps for humanoid robots. Their form factor makes them anatomically suited to many physical tasks we currently can only do ourselves, as well as operate alongside us in human environments.
Their arrival does, however, present challenges. Some are technological, such as the need to constantly create more efficient batteries and durable materials to support increasingly advanced models and use cases.
And, of course, their impact on human workforces and employment opportunities will need to be carefully modeled and addressed. Can (and will) they be introduced in a way that supports human workers by freeing them from mundane, routine or dangerous work? Or will their introduction simply make swathes of manual workers redundant?
There are psychological considerations, too. Many people may be intrinsically frightened of robots. The psychologist who coined the term 'robophobia' in the nineties suggested that as many as 20 percent of people might suffer from it. The impact on everyone's mental health of a billion robots in our streets, factories and homes will have to be carefully thought through, too.
One Billion Robots
One billion robots would equate to one for roughly every eight humans on the planet. By 2050, this means they could be a common sight in factories, healthcare settings, retail, hospitality and education.
They would become increasingly common in our homes, too, with Morgan Stanley's researchers estimating that 10 percent of U.S. households will have one by this point. The U.S. is likely to see the highest concentration of these domestic humanoid robots, helping out with chores, caring for children and the elderly, carrying out maintenance work or providing security.
However, the growing access of less developed markets to cheaper Chinese robots and supply chains could lead to greater uptake in Asia, too.
But if you live in the U.S. and have a household income of $200k-plus, there's a 33 percent chance you'll be sharing your home with a robot by 2050 (everyone else will just have to wait a bit longer).
This is the point at which we must address some of the serious questions: Are governments permitted to use robots as police officers or to conduct surveillance work? Are private companies allowed to use them to enforce security restrictions, for example, preventing humans from accessing buildings or even fighting back if they are attacked?
And what about robots' rights? Is it fair to treat them as unpaid servants or slaves?
Today's most advanced AIs might just be hugely complex language-crunchers, but what about tomorrow's, as they become smarter, more aware, and perhaps even begin to develop qualities we've only seen before in conscious, sentient lifeforms?
As well as processing all of this, we may have to come to terms with no longer being the only intelligent entities walking around with the power to reshape the world with fingers and opposable thumbs. And that could ultimately be the biggest culture shock of all.