Russia's Nabiullina on central bank rate cut, inflation and rouble
They spoke in Russian and the quotes below were translated into English by Reuters.
"Today, we considered two options. There were arguments in favour of leaving the rate unchanged, and arguments for lowering the rate. It's worth noting here that many of those who proposed to leave the rate unchanged for now allowed for its possible reduction at the next meeting in July."
"There was a discussion about whether to reduce the rate by half a percentage point, or one percentage point ... a more substantial step was not considered."
"Inflation is around the lower end of our expectations. We will speak more specifically when our prognosis is re-evaluated in June. But taking into account the facts of the first four months of the year and the operational picture we see regarding this month, any update will likely be towards a reduction."
"As for future steps on the rate, (the decision) is not predetermined. Our decision will depend on how the situation develops, on the data that we receive by the time of the next meeting on the rate."
"We certainly take into account the opinions of experts ... we listen to the expert opinions of government members, but the decision, as required by law, we make independently."
NABIULLINA ON THE ROUBLE:
"We are now more confident in the stability of the exchange rate dynamics than in April. We explain most of the rouble strengthening by the consequences of a tight monetary policy. There may be short-term factors, like the dividend season. This, of course, can influence the rouble exchange rate, but does not determine the trend."
"The tight monetary policy that we are pursuing to slow inflation also affects the rouble exchange rate. And we will pursue a policy that is needed precisely to return inflation to the target of 4%. And accordingly, the trajectory of the exchange rate will be one that meets this forecast."
"If trade wars intensify and hit our exports, then we will make decisions on the rate so that there is no new round of inflation."
*NABIULLINA ON ECONOMIC GROWTH:
"We are close to a scenario of balanced rates of economic growth ... there is no overcooling, because our inflation is still higher than the target, unemployment is below the average for (the last) several years. Our task is to make sure that the trajectory of the slowdown in growth rates is smooth, so that we move to a situation where we have both stable low inflation and stable rates of economic growth."
"We do not see any risks to financial stability, risks of serious deterioration or reduction in the systemic stability of enterprises ... This was not a separate factor for our decision, because in general the situation with companies' financial condition remains stable."
"Overall, despite the more moderate growth in profits, despite the fact that some individual companies are having problems, either facing external restrictions or a large debt burden, overall, the situation is stable, and large companies are mostly stable. There may be slightly more problems in the small and micro business sector."
*NABIULLINA ON STATE OF BANKING SECTOR:
"We assess the state of the banking sector as stable... In my opinion, the rehabilitative mechanism that we proposed instead of the credit one, when the bank is immediately capitalized, has proven itself, it is much more effective than the previous instrument."
"And we are, according to plan, exiting the regulatory relaxations that we provided. The banks have already exited most of them. They are coping well and increasing lending, there is enough capital reserve. There are no special concerns here."
*ZABOTKIN ON INFLATIONARY IMPACT OF HARVEST:
"This year the picture (of the harvest) is noticeably better. And here it is important to understand that it is not necessary for the harvest to be a record, it is enough that it is not worse than last year, and that will ensure a more restrained food prices dynamic, because they have already risen significantly."
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