Google admits its earthquake alert system failed during Turkey's quake

Euronews

6 days ago

Google has acknowledged that its Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system failed to accurately warn the vast majority of people before the catastrophic earthquake that struck Turkey in February 2023, killing over 55,000 and injuring more than 100,000.
Despite the potential to issue high-level alerts to 10 million people within 158 kilometres of the epicentre, only 469 'Take Action' alerts were sent out ahead of the first 7.8 magnitude quake, a risky shortfall, as this is the level of warning designed to wake sleeping users and prompt them to seek immediate safety.
Instead, Google told the BBC that around 500,000 users received the less severe 'Be Aware' notification, intended only for light shaking and incapable of overriding a device's Do Not Disturb setting.
The alert system underestimated the severity of the quake, initially calculating the shaking at just 4.5 to 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale, which is far below the actual magnitude of 7.8.
'We continue to improve the system based on what we learn in each earthquake,' a Google spokesperson said.
The BBC's investigation following the disaster revealed that no users interviewed across the affected region had received the more serious Take Action alert before the tremors.
The alert would have been especially vital given that the earthquake struck at 4:17 am local time (3:17 am CET), when most people were asleep in buildings that ultimately collapsed.
While Google had previously claimed the system had "performed well", it later published research in the Science journal acknowledging 'limitations to the detection algorithms' that contributed to the system's failure.
The second major earthquake that struck later that day was also underestimated, although it triggered more alerts — 8,158 Take Action and nearly four million Be Aware.
After the incident, Google revised its detection algorithms and ran a simulation of the first earthquake. The updated system, had it been in place at the time, would have sent 10 million Take Action alerts and an additional 67 million Be Aware notifications, according to the company.
'Every earthquake early warning system grapples with the same challenge — tuning algorithms for large magnitude events,' Google told the BBC.
Yet experts have expressed grave concern about the delay in releasing this information.
'I'm really frustrated that it took so long,' said Elizabeth Reddy, assistant professor at the Colorado School of Mines.
'We're not talking about a little event — people died — and we didn't see a performance of this warning in the way we would like.'
The AEA system, available in 98 countries, operates independently of national governments and is managed directly by Google. It detects tremors through the movement of Android smartphones, which make up over 70% of mobile devices in Turkey.
Google has maintained that AEA is meant to supplement, not replace, national warning systems. However, scientists worry that some countries may be overly reliant on this technology.
'Would some places make the calculation that Google's doing it, so we don't have to?' asked Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network.
'I think being very transparent about how well it works is absolutely critical.'
The BBC has since asked Google how the AEA system performed during the 2025 earthquake in Myanmar, but has not yet received a response.