HTX DeepThink: Fed Sits Tight Amid Bind; Trump's New Token on Horizon?
This week, what does Trump's emerging token plan mean for crypto markets? Why is the Fed holding rates steady? Behind Bitcoin's rebound, are hidden risks lurking? In this edition of HTX DeepThink, Chloe (@ ChloeTalk1) from HTX Research breaks it all down.
Trump Media Group's Utility Token: A Potential Shift in U.S. Equity Tokenization
On April 30, Trump Media & Technology Group announced it would collaborate with the Truth digital wallet to launch a new utility token called DJT. Initially, DJT will facilitate payments for the Truth+ subscription service, with plans to expand its utility across the Truth ecosystem.
It's the first time a publicly listed U.S. media company is launching a utility token tied to a real-world product ecosystem, signifying a historic convergence between traditional equities and on-chain asset formats. Although the team has yet to announce a release date, blockchain platform, or tokenomics, the rollout appears to follow Trump's classic strategy: hype first, details later.
DJT is hitting the market at just the right moment as memecoin mania is cooling and narratives are shifting toward utility and payment integration. Similar to HTX's recent listing of WLFI's USD1, demand for "practical crypto assets" is surging. DJT combines powerful political branding with real ecosystem support, offering long-term value potential far beyond that of short-lived meme-driven tokens.
U.S.-China Trade Talks: A Temporary Easing Amidst Persistent Tensions
This weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and Trade Representative Jamison Greer will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva. This meeting, the first high-level U.S.-China trade talks since heightened tensions in spring 2025, signals a potential diplomatic thaw.
Although both sides still dispute who initiated the talks, the meeting alone sends a strong signal of reengagement and diplomatic thawing. With tariffs at historic highs, markets are interpreting the summit as a short-term de-escalation of geopolitical risks—sparking a relief rally in risk assets.
Following the news, Bitcoin rose by approximately 3.6%, briefly surpassing $97,000. This reflects how sensitive capital flows remain to macro-level easing signals. While structural differences between the two nations are far from resolved, the current window of policy détente may offer a short-term liquidity boost for digital assets, gold, and tech stocks.
On May 8, the Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for the third consecutive meeting. While it was widely expected, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a noticeably more cautious tone during the press conference:
"Now is not the time for us to lead with a rate cut."
"The cost of waiting is relatively low."
"Whether we cut this year depends on how things develop."
The Fed is currently caught in a "dual bind": on one hand, disinflation has stalled, with PCE and CPI both above the 2% target. On the other, the central bank's fiscal position is deteriorating. A 25–30 bps rate cut could shave $20 billion off annual income, further reducing remittances to the Treasury and raising concerns over the Fed's policy independence.
As a result, despite markets currently pricing in three rate cuts in 2025, the Fed is more likely to take a "data-driven, delayed transition" approach.
Bitcoin's Market Dynamics: Macroeconomic Data to Dictate Direction
Despite BTC rebounding to around $99,000 on geopolitical and monetary optimism, the options market is not confirming a strong directional bias. Deribit data shows implied volatility on June and July calls rising only modestly, while 25d risk reversals remain neutral to slightly bearish, and skew curves are relatively flat. Notably, large Gamma exposures are clustered around the $95,000–$100,000 range, indicating that BTC is currently trapped in a "high-volatility, low-conviction" zone awaiting macro catalysts.
If CPI and jobs data for May–June remain hot, the Fed may push back on rate cut expectations— risking a BTC pullback. Conversely, if inflation cools and unemployment ticks up, Powell may pivot dovishly, providing a green light for BTC to break out of its volatility compression range and resume its bullish trend.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.
cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends.
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Asian shares mostly advance after Wall Street cruises to more records
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Japan Forward
an hour ago
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Dalai Lama Reincarnation Is None of the Atheist CCP's Business
On July 2, His Holiness the Dalai Lama made a highly anticipated announcement regarding his reincarnation. In it, he clearly stated, "I am affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue… I hereby reiterate that the Gaden Phodrang Trust has sole authority to recognize the future reincarnation. No one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter." Here is the full text of the statement. The announcement is in tandem with the statement he made earlier in September 2011 on this reincarnation. As expected, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership came out strongly through their spokespersons and media outlets. It stated that the Dalai Lama has no authority to decide on his own reincarnation. In addition, it declared that the reincarnation will require the Central government's approval. To justify its stance, on July 2, China Daily published an article titled "Reincarnation of Living Buddhas Never Decided by Reincarnated Individuals." Li Decheng, Deputy General and research fellow at the China Tibetology Research Center, authored the piece. The article attempts to summarize the grounds on which the CCP claims authority over the reincarnation. Li presented his argument under two headings. The first, "The reincarnation of the Dalai Lama has never been decided by reincarnated individuals," and the second, "The reincarnation of Living Buddhas follows rigorous historical convention and rules. It is not subject to individual decision." In both statements, the first thing to notice is the use of "Xizang" in place of "Tibet." A clear and deliberate effort by the CCP to erase the name "Tibet" from both the global map and collective memory is evident. Another key point is the claim that an individual's decision is not required for reincarnation. The Chinese appointed Panchen Lama pledges loyalty to the CCP in a meeting with Xi Jinping. June 25, 2025. (©Xie Huanchi/Xinhua via AP) Tibet emerged as a significant force in Central Asia around the 7th and 8th centuries. Its rise occurred during the reign of its 33rd Emperor, Srongtsan Gampo, and his successors. They raided and conquered neighboring countries, including the Chinese capital Chang'an, present-day Xi'an. Since then, Tibet has been known as Tubbat by the Arabs, Tubet by the Mongolians, Tufan and Tubod by the Tang dynasty of China, and Bhote and Tibbat by the Indians. Italian explorer Marco Polo referred to Tibet as Tebet. It was never referred to as Xizang. Xizang is merely a meronym adopted by the CCP for Tibet, referring only to the U-tsang province of Tibet. Historically and politically, Tibet is composed of the three provinces of U-tsang, Amdo, and Kham. By using Xizang in place of Tibet, the CCP is attempting to confuse the world. It is trying to convince it that there is no Tibet, and therefore, no Tibet issue. When it comes to the reincarnation of the Dalai Lamas, it's essential to understand several key Buddhist concepts. A proper grasp of samsara, the law of karma, and the three kayas is crucial to fully comprehend what reincarnation truly means. Buddhists, Hindus, and Jains understand that all beings, including insects, birds, and other creatures, reincarnate continuously based on their positive and negative karmas. Here, it is not the individual but their karma that decides their reincarnation. This is an involuntary rebirth driven by the force of karma. Reincarnated Lamas are different. According to His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama, their rebirth is not driven by karma or negative emotions. Instead, it is determined by compassion and a vow to help others. "Superior Bodhisattvas, who have attained the path of seeing, are not reborn through the force of their karma and destructive emotions, but due to the power of their compassion for sentient beings and based on their prayers to benefit others. They are able to choose their place and time of birth as well as their future parents. Such a rebirth, which is solely for the benefit of others, is rebirth through the force of compassion and prayer." - HH the 14th Dalai Lama on Reincarnation High Lamas are Bodhisattva beings who have purified their karmas and have attained enlightenment. They enter the world of the three Kayas of Dharmakaya, Sambhogkaya, and Nirmanakaya. However, some Lamas, guided by their Mahayana vows, choose to be reborn out of compassion in order to continue serving sentient beings. This is a voluntary rebirth. So, it is up to the enlightened individual to decide whether he should reincarnate or not. Therefore, Li Decheng's assertions that "Living Buddhas never decided by reincarnated individuals" and "It is not subject to individual decision" are totally false. They reveal either a deliberate misrepresentation or complete ignorance of the subject, aimed at appeasing the CCP regime. China claims authority to select the Dalai Lama based on the use of the Golden Urn, as decreed by the Manchu Emperor Qianlong (r 1732-1795) in 1792. We must note that by 1792, some eight Dalai Lamas had been reincarnated, starting from the first in 1391. The Manchu Qing Dynasty started only in 1644. Therefore, the traditional system of selecting the reincarnation of the Dalai Lamas predates the Manchu Dynasty by 253 years and the Golden Urn by 400 years. Regarding the use of the Golden Urn, Tibetans accepted the Manchu's advice out of courtesy only. Except for the selection of the 11th Dalai Lama, it was never used. Li Decheng's assertion, "All the aforementioned Dalai Lamas were formally approved by the central government," is false. Moreover, the Manchu Dynasty was a foreign and not a Chinese dynasty. It is a historical faux pas on the part of the CCP regime to claim authority to select the Dalai Lama based on the Manchu's Golden Urn. Speaking of the Golden Urn, the free world is very well aware of how it was used and manipulated in 1995 to select the false Panchen Lama. Repeating the same with the Dalai Lama's reincarnation will only shame China and earn greater distrust from the Tibetan people and the international community. Li claims that the Ming government dispatched envoys to Qinghai in 1579 to grant the Third Dalai Lama (1543–1588) a title and seal. According to Li, "This confirmed and recognized the legitimacy of his status as a reincarnated Living Buddha and the reincarnation system by the central government." This claim is entirely false. The 3rd Dalai Lama Sonam Gyatso, 1543-1588. (© The Third Dalai Lama, Sonam Gyatso, was already recognized in 1548, when he was five, through traditional Tibetan rituals. In 1579, at the age of 36, on his way back from Mongolia, the Chinese Ming envoys visited him at the border and presented many gifts and extended the Emperor's invitation to visit China. However, the Dalai Lama declined the invitation. This demonstrates that the Ming Emperor has no authority and the Dalai Lama does not need formal recognition from the Ming court. Long before that, the Ming Emperor Yunglo (r 1403-24) invited Lama Tsongkhapa (1357-1419) several times. Lama Tsongkhapa declined the invitation due to other obligations. Instead, he sent his disciple, Jamchen Shakya Senge, to China, where he was warmly received and exchanged titles with the Emperor. He built the monastery of Huang-ssu (Yellow Temple) in Peking. These historical records indicate that the Ming Emperor revered the Lamas but had no direct authority over Tibet. Li writes, "The reincarnation of Living Buddhas must follow the principle of respecting the sentiments of lay followers." This is exactly what His Holiness has done. In his statement, he said he received earnest requests from different quarters, including messages from Tibet. "In accordance with all these requests, I am affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue." Furthermore, Li says, "The majority of Tibetan Buddhist believers reside in China, specifically within regions where Tibetan Buddhism is practiced. Therefore, in practice, reincarnated Living Buddhas do not abandon their followers or the land that nurtures them, and can only reincarnate within China, rather than in places where Tibetan Buddhism is not traditionally practiced." True, very well said, but the pertinent question here is: will the CCP regime allow the reincarnated Lamas to carry out their religious teaching freely? It is for this reason only that HH the Dalai Lama has stated that his reincarnation will be born in a free country. Otherwise, the whole purpose of reincarnation is lost. Therefore, it is incumbent on the individual Lama to decide whether to reincarnate or not and where to reincarnate. It is an undeniable fact that India is the birthplace of Buddhism, and Tibetan Buddhism derives its roots from India, particularly the Nalanda tradition. It is therefore preposterous on the part of the atheist CCP regime to hint at India as a land where Tibetan Buddhism is not traditionally practiced. Representative Dr TG Arya of the Liaison Office of HH the Dalai Lama for Japan & East Asia in an interview on TV Asahi. (Screenshot, July 2, 2025) Li's article concludes with a statement, "Any attempt to politicize the reincarnation of Living Buddhas will ultimately prove futile." This is exactly what the Tibetans, along with the Buddhist and international community, want to say to the CCP regime. Xu Feihong, the Chinese Ambassador to India, made a statement that is both audacious and lamentable. "The reincarnation of the Dalai Lamas neither began from him nor will end due to him. He has no authority to decide whether the reincarnation system shall continue or be abolished," the Chinese official asserted. That he would make such a blatantly false claim in India, the land of the Buddha, reflects a complete lack of diplomatic decorum at the highest level. Above all, the international and religious community, especially Buddhists in the free world, must protest the CCP regime's impudent and blasphemous act against religion. Under Religious Act No 19 of 2024, the Chinese Communist Party has made it mandatory for all faiths to adopt Xi Jinping's ideology of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Having already subjugated the land and its people, the regime now seeks to control their very souls. Silence from the international community on these blasphemous assaults will only embolden the totalitarian state to extend its reach beyond China's borders. Author: Tsewang Gyalpo Arya Dr Arya Tsewang Gyalpo is the former Secretary of the Department of Information and International Relations (DIIR) and former Director of the Tibet Policy Institute (TPI). He is currently the Representative of the Liaison Office of His Holiness the Dalai Lama for Japan and East Asia. His books include Harnessing the Dragon's Fume and The Ancient Tibetan Civilization . The view expressed above is the author's own.
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