What we're hearing: Rays' relief plans, Luis Robert's value and deadline ‘ambulance chasing'

New York Times

4 days ago

What we're hearing about the MLB trade deadline is a collection of news and notes from our reporting team of Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal.
St. Louis Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak watched as his team faltered and his popularity surged among his peers. Getting swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first series out of the All-Star break brought some clarity to what had been a muddled situation.
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In the final days before the July 31 trade deadline, the Cardinals flunked a big test. Their competitors pounced.
'People realized it was a tough weekend for us,' said Mozeliak, whose phone was suddenly flooded with opportunists.
As executives across Major League Baseball constantly check their phones, the buzzword is 'fluid.' Entering play Tuesday, 12 of the 15 American League clubs were either in a leading position or within five games of a playoff spot. Meanwhile, in the National League, only the three last-place teams could be classified as traditional sellers. The unusually large number of bubble teams this summer has created the conditions for more potential awkwardness.
It makes you wonder if there's some sort of waiting period before dialing, or a kind of professional etiquette. The fraternity of high-ranking baseball officials is rather small.
'You kind of make a joke in the beginning of the conversation,' Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said.
Players and coaches romanticize 'the grind,' writing off a bad game as 'one of 162' and trying to focus on the process. But at this time of year, the results matter. A win or a loss can take on outsized import.
The Cardinals have been at a crossroads since last year's announcement that, after three decades in the St. Louis front office, Mozeliak would step down at the end of the 2025 season with Chaim Bloom set to take over.
The Cardinals retained veteran players such as Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray without making significant investments in their major-league payroll to push forward. While creating opportunities for young talent, the Cardinals did not go all-in and replenish their farm system by trading, for example, All-Star closer Ryan Helsey. In this bridge season, the Cardinals have been largely competitive and mostly unexceptional.
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Getting swept in Arizona by another team hovering around .500 seemingly went beyond the margin for error.
'Where we are in the standings definitely affects our decision-making going forward,' Mozeliak said. 'Playing those three games and losing all three was not helpful.'
As division rivals, the Cubs and Cardinals do not come together to make deals at the deadline. For context, Hoyer was speaking broadly about how the trade market usually works. But even in a cutthroat business, executives aren't always bluffing or misdirecting. At times, they gossip, crack jokes and commiserate.
'We've all been there,' Hoyer said.
As an example, Hoyer pointed to how the Cubs pivoted at the 2023 trade deadline, reacting to an eight-game winning streak in late July. Not only did the Cubs not trade Cody Bellinger to the New York Yankees, Hoyer's group acquired Jeimer Candelario, who was putting together a fine season with the Washington Nationals.
'In '23, I was just really open with everyone,' Hoyer recalled. 'Like, 'Hey, don't feel bad. Yes, this is a little bit day-to-day here. Yeah, if we lose two games in a row, we may well be selling. And if we keep winning, we might be buying.' Teams are pretty open about that.
'If a team loses three in a row and they're still in really good position, no one's calling to ask. But with the teams that are generally in that up-or-down spot, trying to make that decision, I don't think you feel bad about it because usually they are pretty open. Like, 'Hey, we're a little bit series-to-series here.''
In that sense, the media coverage of the trade deadline is not overblown, and fans are not overreacting to a three-game losing streak. Front offices might be making the same calculations.
The really awkward part over the phone does not necessarily involve sellers at the trade deadline, Hoyer said. It's when a team gets hit with injuries and bombarded with messages from rival officials who sense an opportunity.
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'Ambulance chasing,' Hoyer said.
Two clubs made aggressive attempts last week to land Luis Robert Jr., league sources said, but the Chicago White Sox wanted a better return of prospects. Indeed, Robert picked a fascinating time for a hot streak.
Through 10 games in July, Robert is 12-for-33 (.364 batting average) with two home runs and three stolen bases. He had a scheduled day off on Tuesday, and he missed the first week of the month due to a hamstring injury.
Robert's overall numbers for this season remain subpar: .206 batting average, .636 OPS, 10 home runs in 323 plate appearances. Since last season, his trade stock has suffered because of poor results. Perhaps a late push helps the White Sox recoup some value.
Compared to some other center fielders in the trade market, such as Cedric Mullins (Baltimore Orioles) and Harrison Bader (Minnesota Twins), rival scouts still say Robert holds the greatest upside. He is 27 years old and is just two seasons removed from hitting 38 home runs.
League sources expect the market to further heat up for Robert, especially if he continues to hit. If not, in theory, it is possible that the White Sox could decide against trading Robert and pick up his $20 million club option for next season because of their low payroll. However, that would be a serious gamble on a player with health and production concerns.
An AL executive recently expressed some of that skepticism heading into the trade deadline: 'What are you really getting?'
The Tampa Bay Rays remain one of several teams straddling the fence as the trade deadline looms. Should they buy, relief pitching will be the priority.
The Rays already swung a deal in early July, swapping their 37th overall pick in this year's draft to the Orioles in exchange for right-hander Bryan Baker. Their next week of games will dictate their course, but the club will continue monitoring the bullpen market.
While it's unclear to which degree the Rays would buy, league sources say the club would strongly prefer to hold on to closer Pete Fairbanks, regardless of the direction they take. Fairbanks, 31, is in the final guaranteed year of his current deal, but the Rays hold a club option that would pay the reliever $7 million for 2026, with additional escalators that could take things up to $11 million.
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In addition to bullpen help, the Rays are also exploring potential position player upgrades, people familiar with their plans said, in the event they rack up wins quickly. After Tuesday's 4-3 victory over the White Sox, the Rays improved to 53-49, just a half-game out of playoff position.
(Top photo of Luis Robert Jr.: Justin Berl / Getty Images)