P Chidambaram writes: That's the way the cookie crumbles
Where are the dosti and bonhomie?
I gather that Mr Modi and Mr Trump have not spoken to each other since May 7, 2025. The most that we know is that Vice-President J D Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to Mr Modi on the night of May 9 and urged him to stop the war. Mr Trump alluded to such conversation(s) when he posted on Truth Social that 'After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire.' That announcement at 5.25 pm on May 10 rudely awakened Indians to the reality.
Mr Trump was not bluffing. The cease-fire had been agreed at 3.35 pm and had come into effect at 5.00 pm on May 10, 2025. An unsmiling Foreign Secretary confirmed the facts at 6 pm. I think it is important to explore more deeply how America claimed that it had mediated (if not muscled) a cease-fire, and why. There are many plausible reasons:
🔴 Vice-President Vance conveyed 'alarming intel' to Mr Modi on the evening of May 9. The alarming intel could only have been the threat of use of nuclear weapons by Pakistan or the role of China. Both the prime minister and the defence minister have said India will not submit to 'nuclear blackmail': why was that phrase used if there was no such threat?
🔴 On the role of China, it is absolutely clear that China had allowed Pakistan to use Chinese aircraft (J-10) and Chinese missiles (PL-15). They could not have been used without Chinese inputs and Chinese presence in Pakistan Air Force's Command Centres. (India neutralised them and repulsed the attacks.)
🔴 Two websites — india.com and defencexp.com — have carried reports that Colonel-rank Pakistan Army officers had been posted in Chinese PLA's Western and Southern Theatre Commands and in the Joint Staff Command of the Central Military Commission. Chinese battlefield guidance was obviously in play.
🔴 Pakistan claimed that it had used China-made hypersonic missiles to target India's S-400 air defence system. China's official news agency Xinhua described it as the 'dawn of a new era in warfare'. (At Adampur airbase, the air defence system was intact.)
Look at the four-day war and its twisted course. On May 7, India entered the era of algorithm-driven wars. No soldier crossed the land border or Line of Control. No aircraft entered the rival's airspace. The main weapons were missiles and armed drones. India had the first-mover advantage and punished Pakistan severely between May 7 and 9. At that moment of triumph, Mr Trump intervened to end the war. He cast aside his friendship with the 'nicest human being' and bullied India to stop the war. Brushing aside India's discreet protests, Mr Trump publicly claimed during his visits to Saudi Arabia and Qatar that it was his mediation and the threat of 'no trade' that brought the war to an end.
It is becoming clearer by the day that the Trump family's commercial interests were the moving force behind Mr Trump's intervention. The Trump family's crypto currency firm, World Liberty Financial (WLF), had negotiated with Pakistan, met Pakistan's prime minister and army chief, and signed a deal with Pakistan Crypto Council on April 26 — barely four days after the Pahalgam terror attack. As the war intensified, Mr Trump abandoned his initial 'hands off' approach. Frenetic activity began after May 7 and concluded with Mr Trump having the last word, as he claimed.
Despite the dosti, America deported Indian 'illegal' immigrants in handcuffs and leg chains. Not a word of protest from the prime minister. Steep tariffs were imposed on imports from India; not a word. The US voted in favour of IMF's loan to Pakistan; not a word. Foreign students, including Indians, were barred from Harvard University; not a word. Indian students face the threat of revocation of their visas; not a word. Student visa interviews have been suspended; not a word. The dosti lies in a shambles.
The Prime Minister of India is no longer dealing with the President of the United States. Mr Modi is dealing with the head of a family that owns the multi-million dollar WLF which has concluded a commercial deal with Pakistan. He is dealing with a businessperson who will not hesitate to use the cloak, armour, resources and power of POTUS.
Despite the political support within India to Operation Sindoor and despite his strong words, Mr Modi is truly stumped by the behaviour of Mr Trump. Pakistan is no longer a push over: it has China's military support and America's diplomatic support. India has to go back to the drawing board to re-draw its
military strategy. India has also to go back to the drawing board to re-draw its America policy.
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