One year on: Looking back on Labour's time in power

ITV News

7 hours ago

The UK government's official guide to reversing a car is clear in the Highway Code.
'Choose an appropriate place to manoeuvre. If you need to turn your vehicle around, wait until you find a safe place.'
Labour ministers failed politically on all counts earlier this week as it gutted its own controversial welfare reforms as a last resort that saw off a potentially fatal defeat in the House of Commons for Sir Keir Starmer.
It's a long way from the 174-seat majority he secured last summer. But in some ways, this might sum up the prime minister's first year in office, which he celebrates on Friday.
If celebrate is the correct word.
'It took us 12 years to disintegrate,' a senior Tory told me this week. 'They've managed it in less than 12 months.'
Even loyal Labour MPs freely admit the last few days have been shambolic.
They blame poor party management – not least Starmer's failure to either put an arm around those on the backbenches or to dangle a carrot of potential promotion above them – and strategic errors in how controversial decisions have been announced.
Think of the original ending of universal winter fuel payments (now mostly U-turned so only the richest pensioners miss out), which was dropped into a news vacuum and took on a life of its own.
Or the decision not to include policies – like scrapping the two-child cap – that would have appealed to the left of the Labour Party during his welfare reforms to make the plans more palatable to would-be rebels.
Others in the UK government say this is easy to argue after the fact and the lack of money available to the chancellor means such big changes have to be announced in a piecemeal fashion.
Starmer is not a natural communicator either. Look at his initial failure to guarantee Rachel Reeves' future at prime minister's questions, while his chancellor sat behind him with a tear running down her cheek.
This is despite one senior Downing Street source telling me that speculation about Reeves' job was 'utter madness' and that she was 'never going to go' despite absorbing much of the heat for not just the welfare climbdown but a host of other economic decisions.
It's these other calls that have festered throughout the year.
Colin Borland, director of devolved nations for the Federation of Small Businesses, expressed concerns about the Employment Rights Bill, which he said would create more hoops for people to jump through when hiring someone.
'That simply makes it harder for small firms to continue offering employment chances to those further from the jobs market,' he said.
'Maintaining an environment where small businesses can carry on doing that will be key to tackling economic inactivity and driving sustainable growth.'
This comes on the back of controversy about increasing the national insurance contributions of businesses, which the agricultural sector has – alongside changes to inheritance tax – harmed firms and family farms.
Andrew Connon, president of the National Farmers Union Scotland, said: "One year ago, the prime minister promised 'food security is national security', suggesting that agriculture was respected and valued by our newly elected government.
'However, a year on, farmers and crofters across Scotland worry those words have been neglected.'
Labour ministers say the employment rights bill is making things better for workers and that their policies are making a difference to people's pockets, while also sending more cash to Holyrood to spend on public services.
Starmer's allies defend him as a decent man trying to make things better in a way that's not showy.
But this week he has been ruled by rebels and once parliamentarians realise they have that kind of power, they get a taste for wielding it.
Meanwhile, ten months out from the Holyrood election (that some overconfident Labourites were last summer practically declaring victory in), the path to power in Edinburgh looks decidedly narrower.
A new poll published on Wednesday by Ipsos, in partnership with STV News, highlighted a trend that causes frown lines to appear on the foreheads of senior Scottish Labour figures.
Voters who took a chance on Starmer now say they are planning to vote for another party with 9% planning to drift – back, probably – to the SNP; 7% to the Scottish Greens; to 6% the Liberal Democrats and 17% to Reform UK.
This leaves about one in 10 of those who voted Labour last summer undecided.
Strategists in Holyrood believe they can squeeze many of them – and those considering Reform and the Lib Dems in particular – to back their party come crunch time.
They look at the recent Hamilton, Stonehouse and Larkhall byelection for inspiration, where Scotland's political bubble declared Labour dead and buried only for the party to win literally against the (long) odds.
There is also the fact that Labour's campaigning organisation is streets ahead of the SNP's in particular, which made the difference in the byelection.
And there are other glimmers of hope. The SNP is the largest party on voting intentions – and it has a much higher floor of support than its rivals – but backing is still anywhere between 10 and 15 points down compared to the last Holyrood election.
People are unhappy with public services, are unhappy with politicians in general and want something to change.
But they're hardly crying out for Labour. First Minister John Swinney and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar both sit around the same level of (un)popularity.
Starmer is also a drag on Labour's ambitions north of the border.
His ratings have plunged so far that he is now less popular than Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.
And compared to last year, when Labour and the SNP were roughly neck and neck when it came to who Scots trust to manage public services, the nationalists have pulled back out in front with the public.
Let's be honest, most people are not following every cough and spit of Westminster debates – but they do track the mood music.
Right now that sound is of a weak prime minister who has admitted to being distracted from key domestic issues by foreign affairs and who is unable to command even his own MPs.
If the second anniversary of this UK government doesn't coincide with a U-turn in the public's affection for Labour, there's next to no chance of the party taking power at Holyrood.