NASCAR midseason review: Checking our predictions at Cup Series' halfway point

New York Times

6 hours ago

Get those crossed flags in the air: We've reached the halfway point of the NASCAR Cup Series season.
OK, technically, we're a bit past halfway if you count the two non-point events, the exhibitions. However, in terms of championship points races, it's now 18 down and 18 to go.
So, at the midpoint of 2025 — and with just eight races remaining until the playoffs — let's revisit our NASCAR preseason predictions and see how they're stacking up so far.
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Preseason: Kyle Larson
Now: Kyle Larson
This is not as clear-cut as it seemed in the preseason, but Larson hangs onto this spot for now. He is tied for the most wins (three, along with Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell) and has the most laps led, most top fives and most top 10s in the Cup Series. Larson slipped to third in points when he was passed by Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott last week, and both of them are behind another Hendrick teammate, William Byron.
Larson has been great at times but has also made mistakes, such as in the Coca-Cola 600, when he took the lead for 34 laps only to have an unforced error ruin his night. That's not unusual for a driver who always seems to find the limit, but it's hurt him in the regular-season point standings.
It's tough to say who else would be in this spot if not Larson. Yes, Byron has led the points almost every week this season, but he only has that Daytona 500 win in terms of victories. Bell and Hamlin have each won three times, but like Larson, they have been inconsistent. No one else has won more than one race.
Ross Chastain could be the other candidate here. He had a brilliant first half of the regular season, when he put an underperforming car on his back and was finishing 10 spots higher than his qualifying average every week. His win in the Coke 600 was a signature moment, and he's been dominant on restarts this season. However, since that Memorial Day Weekend victory, Chastain has not led a lap and has only one top-10 finish (a sixth-place result at Michigan).
So for now, we'll stick with Larson here.
Preseason: Chase Briscoe
Now: Ryan Preece
With apologies to Carson Hocevar, who has certainly been The Show many weeks and could be an easy choice here, it's tough to overlook what Preece has done.
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Preece has never finished better than 23rd in the Cup standings, but currently ranks 14th. He has the 11th-best average finish in the Cup Series this season — nearly five spots ahead of his career average — and already has a career-high seven top 10s (which also ranks 11th in the series).
And by the way, Preece is doing this for a startup team at RFK Racing. We often see new cars at existing race teams struggle to find their footing when first established, but Preece and his No. 60 crew are already 130 points ahead of where he and his Stewart-Haas Racing team were at this point last season. And that's not even counting the points Preece lost at Talladega, when he finished second only to see his car disqualified for a technical violation.
By the way, Briscoe has been fine — he won Pocono, is 10th in the point standings and has six top-five finishes (tied for sixth in the series). However, that's more along the lines of the minimum we expected at this point, not a 'breakout.'
Preseason: Shane van Gisbergen
Now: Shane van Gisbergen
Not much to say about this one. SVG is doing precisely what was expected, has already won his way into the playoffs and is the heavy favorite for the Chicago Street Course Race this weekend. He has also shown improvement on the ovals, ensuring he'll stick around for next season (as Trackhouse Racing teammate Daniel Suárez will leave at the end of the year).
Preseason: Carson Hocevar vs. The Field
Now: Carson Hocevar vs. The Field
You could argue Hocevar vs. Stenhouse belongs in this spot if Hocevar hadn't irked so many other drivers along the way, too. So, The Field it is.
Hey, is it obnoxious to copy and paste what we wrote here in the preseason because we nailed it? It's not bragging if it's true, right?
The second-year Spire Motorsports driver is lightning quick but is also fast to irritate other drivers with his moves. Like mentor Ross Chastain in 2022 and 2023, Hocevar doesn't get the benefit of the doubt for his role in any incidents, but he also doesn't seem to care very much about what other people think. He's a big personality who has the potential to be polarizing depending on the popularity of whatever driver with whom he's clashing.
Yeah, we're patting ourselves on the back for that one.
Preseason: Richard Childress Racing
Now: Justin Haley
RCR hasn't been great by any means — its two drivers have only one combined top-five finish and neither will make the playoffs barring a victory. Kyle Busch is 20th in the standings and Austin Dillon is 26th.
However, the biggest disappointment? Eh, not really. The expectations weren't that high to begin with, given last year's performance, and there are other candidates in this category.
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Brad Keselowski has had a miserable season, though back-to-back top-10 finishes have helped him climb from 32nd to 27th in the point standings. Front Row Motorsports doesn't have a driver better than 25th in points. And Suárez is 29th in points while teammate Chastain is eighth.
The pick here, though, is Justin Haley. What a bizarre situation for Haley at Spire Motorsports, where he entered this season with the second-winningest active crew chief (Rodney Childers) on his pit box and driving for an organization clearly on the rise.
Yet, Childers was gone from the team by the end of April, and Haley has been a non-factor with no single-digit finishes this season (his best result was 10th at Homestead). Haley has more finishes outside the top 20 (11) than inside of it (seven) and his best finish since early May is 19th.
Make it make sense. Haley's average finish (22.3) is in line with what he did last year at Rick Ware Racing (23.1) and what Corey LaJoie did in the same No. 7 car (23.0) before losing his ride.
Preseason: Michael McDowell
Now: John Hunter Nemechek
The 28-year-old Nemechek has quietly made a huge year-over-year leap in his second season at Legacy Motor Club. In 2024, Nemechek finished 34th — dead last — among all full-time Cup Series drivers in the standings.
This year, he is 23rd in points so far and already has two more top-10 finishes (six) than he had all of last season (four). Most notably, Nemechek has improved his average finish from 25.4 to 19.1 — a gain of more than six positions, which is a significant improvement.
Recently, his back-to-back sixth-place finishes at Mexico City and Pocono boosted him to 21st in the standings before getting crash damage (like many others) at Atlanta last week.
However, an honorable mention has to go to Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Hyak Motorsports for Stenhouse's consistent, veteran finishes that have kept him in playoff contention (despite two costly run-ins with young Hocevar). Stenhouse is 21st in points on a single-car team and is tied for second in the Cup Series with 15 lead-lap finishes this season.
Meanwhile, McDowell hasn't had the year we expected after leaving Front Row for Spire. He has just two top-10 finishes and is 22nd in the standings.
Preseason: Ty Gibbs
Now: Carson Hocevar
Gibbs is the only Joe Gibbs Racing car that has not won yet this season. And while it could happen any week (even Sunday at Chicago, given how fast Gibbs was in Mexico City), it sure feels like Hocevar is much closer to breaking through.
Hocevar has two second-place finishes this season and was also in contention at Michigan (thwarted by a late flat tire and fuel strategy) and Charlotte (blown engine). It seems a matter of time before Hocevar wins, whereas Gibbs' trip to victory lane is less certain.
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Finally, let's examine how the playoff field is shaping up so far, based on our preseason predictions.
Already in (10): Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, William Byron, Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Shane van Gisbergen.
Currently in on points (three): Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick.
Need to win to make it (three): Ty Gibbs, Michael McDowell, Brad Keselowski.
Drivers already locked into the field who we didn't predict would make it (two): Josh Berry, Austin Cindric.
Drivers currently in on points who we didn't predict would make it (one): Bubba Wallace.