Can Trump fulfil his grandiose foreign policy promises?
Political scientist John Mearsheimer argues that Trump can't ethnically cleanse Gaza or resolve the Ukraine War.
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Published On 31 Jan 2025
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Qatar Tribune
17 hours ago
- Qatar Tribune
As US and Europe cut aid budgets, China's star is on the rise in Southeast Asia: Report
Agencies China's role as Southeast Asia's largest infrastructure financier is increasing its regional influence at a time when the United States and the European Union are slashing their foreign aid budgets, a new report by an Australian think tank said. With the Trump administration in the United States scrapping about US$60 billion in aid and European countries pulling back more than US$25 billion, 'the centre of gravity' in Southeast Asia's development finance landscape 'looks set to drift East, notably to Beijing, but also Tokyo and Seoul', the Lowy Institute report, which was released today, said. 'China is the single largest partner on infrastructure financing in Southeast Asia, but traditional donors combined still outspend it,' the report's lead authors, Alexandre Dayant, Grace Stanhope and Roland Rajah, wrote. 'As Western aid declines and China recalibrates its strategy, Beijing is well positioned to regain dominance.' Southeast Asia's traditional partners include countries such as the US and Australia, and international organisations such as the United Nations, the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank. With the US expected to cut its foreign assistance by 83 per cent this year, the retrenchment of funds from Europe and tariff uncertainties undermining trade ties between the US and other countries, China is enhancing its influence in the region through infrastructure connections. Recent examples include work on high-speed railway links with Vietnam and Thailand. China International Development Cooperation Agency spokesman Li Ming told a news conference in March that China's 'principles related to foreign aid, including non-interference in internal affairs, no political strings attached and no empty promises made, will not change'.'A major country should act like a major country by shouldering its due international obligations and fulfilling its responsibilities, rather than renege on its promises, be mercenary or bullying,' he Lowy Institute report said that in 2023, China had 'ramped up' non-concessional loan disbursements by almost 50 per cent compared to 2022, accelerating major infrastructure projects such as the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway in Indonesia and the East Coast Rail Link in Malaysia. 'Even as the infrastructure race slows, China's relative importance as a development actor in the region will rise as Western development support recedes,' the report said. 'Beijing retains a substantial pipeline of infrastructure projects and has shown continued appetite to take on major projects.' Lower-middle-income economies such as the Philippines and Vietnam would engage with China when doing so aligned with their domestic priorities, the report said, while poorer economies such as Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar – which had limited access to alternative financing – remained 'heavily reliant' on China and had 'much less room to negotiate'. There was a fourfold increase in Chinese infrastructure project commitments from a low of US$2.5 billion in 2022 to almost US$10 billion in 2023 due to the revival of the Kyaukphyu Deep Sea Port project in Myanmar, the report said. It said the European Union and the governments of seven European countries – France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Austria and Italy – had announced plans last year to implement US$17.2 billion in foreign aid cuts between this year and 2029, while the United Kingdom was cutting around US$7.6 billion a year. Total development finance to Southeast Asia could decline by 8 per cent, or more than US$2 billion, to US$26.5 billion next year, according to Lowy Institute estimates based on budget documents, public announcements and calculations by other researchers.
Qatar Tribune
17 hours ago
- Qatar Tribune
Trump's tariff pressure pushes Asia towards American LNG
Agencies Asian countries are offering to buy more U.S. liquefied natural gas in negotiations with the Trump administration as a way to alleviate tensions over U.S. trade deficits and forestall higher tariffs. Analysts warn that strategy could undermine those countries' long-term climate ambitions and energy security. Buying more U.S. LNG has topped the list of concessions Asian countries have offered in talks with Washington over President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on foreign goods. Vietnam's Prime Minister underlined the need to buy more of the super-chilled fuel in a government meeting, and the government signed a deal in May with an American company to develop a gas import hub. JERA, Japan's largest power generator, signed new 20-year contracts last month to purchase up to 5.5 million metric tons of U.S. gas annually starting around 2030. U.S. efforts to sell more LNG to Asia predate the Trump administration, but they've gained momentum with his intense push to win trade deals. Liquefied natural gas, or LNG, is natural gas cooled to a liquid form for easy storage and transport that is used as a fuel for transport, residential cooking and heating and industrial processes. Trump discussed cooperation on a $44 billion Alaska LNG project with South Korea, prompting a visit by officials to the site in June. The U.S. president has promoted the project as a way to supply gas from Alaska's vast North Slope to a liquefication plant at Nikiski in south-central Alaska, with an eye largely on exports to Asian countries while bypassing the Panama Canal Thailand has offered to commit to a long-term deal for American fuel and shown interest in the same Alaska project to build a nearly 810-mile (1,300-kilometer) pipeline that would funnel gas from The Philippines is also considering importing gas from Alaska while India is mulling a plan to scrap import taxes on U.S. energy shipments to help narrow its trade surplus with Washington. 'Trump has put pressure on a seeming plethora of Asian trading partners to buy more U.S. LNG,' said Tim Daiss, at the APAC Energy Consultancy, pointing out that Japan had agreed to buy more despite being so 'awash in the fuel' that it was being forced to cancel projects and contracts to offload the excess to Asia's growing economies. 'Not good for Southeast Asia's sustainability goals,' he said. Experts say LNG purchasing agreements can slow adoption of renewable energy in Asia. Locking into long-term deals could leave countries with outdated infrastructure as the world shifts rapidly toward cleaner energy sources like solar or wind that offer faster, more affordable ways to meet growing power demand, said Indra Overland, head of the Center for Energy Research at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Building pipelines, terminals, and even household gas stoves creates systems that are expensive and difficult to replace—making it harder to switch to renewables later. 'And you're more likely then to get stuck for longer,' he said. Energy companies that profit from gas or coal are powerful vested interests, swaying policy to favor their business models, he said. LNG burns cleaner than coal, but it's still a fossil fuel that emits greenhouse gases and contributes to climate change. Many LNG contracts include 'take-or-pay' clauses, obliging governments to pay even if they don't use the fuel. Christopher Doleman of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis warns that if renewable energy grows fast, reducing the need for LNG, countries may still have to pay for gas they no longer need. Pakistan is an example. Soaring LNG costs drove up electricity prices, pushing consumers to install rooftop solar panels. As demand for power drops and gas supply surges, the country is deferring LNG shipments and trying to resell excess fuel. Experts said that although countries are signaling a willingness to import more U.S. LNG, they're unlikely to import enough to have a meaningful impact on U.S. trade deficits. South Korea would need to import 121 million metric tons of LNG in a year — 50% more than the total amount of LNG the U.S. exported globally last year and triple what South Korea imported, said Doleman. Vietnam — with a trade surplus with the U.S. twice the size of Korea's — would need to import 181 million metric tons annually, more than double what the U.S. exported last year. Other obstacles stand in the way. The Alaska LNG project is widely considered uneconomic. Both coal and renewable energy in Asia are so much cheaper that U.S. gas would need to cost less than half its current price to compete. Tariffs on Chinese steel could make building building gas pipelines and LNG terminals more expensive, while longstanding delays to build new gas turbines mean new gas power projects may not come online until 2032. Meanwhile, a global glut in LNG will likely drive prices lower, making it even harder for countries to justify locking into long-term deals with the United States at current higher prices. Committing to long-term U.S. LNG contracts could impact regional energy security at a time of growing geopolitical and market uncertainties, analysts said. A core concern is over the longterm stability of the U.S. as a trading partner, said Overland.
Qatar Tribune
17 hours ago
- Qatar Tribune
Uncertainty grips global economy in first 6 months of Donald Trump 2.0
Agencies Six months into his second term, one of the defining features of U.S. President Donald Trump's time in office appears to be his continued use of tariffs as a key policy tool. From China to Mexico to the European Union, Trump has reignited trade tensions with a barrage of new levies, fulfilling campaign promises but causing great uncertainty in financial markets and global supply chains. Trump's renewed focus on his protectionist economic policy has sparked sharp reactions in global markets, commodity prices, precious metals and oil. Trump first introduced his 'reciprocal' tariffs in April, imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on most countries. He suspended those tariffs for 90 days, except for China, on April 9. After a back-and-forth tariff standoff with China, Washington agreed to a trade deal following a meeting in London last month, as the two sides agreed to roll back some punitive tariffs and other restrictive measures. Meanwhile, many countries have been attempting to negotiate a more favorable trade agreement, which includes lower tariff rates than those introduced in April by the U.S. Other countries with which the U.S. has announced trade deals are the U.K., Vietnam and Indonesia. Additionally, the U.S. president has sent letters to numerous countries, informing them of the tariff rate they will be paying as of Aug. 1. They include the EU and Mexico at 30% and Canada at 35%. Trump also introduced new sectoral tariffs, which included a 25% tariff rate for all automotive imports in April. He also introduced 50% levies on copper imports starting Aug. 1 and a 200% rate on pharma products coming into the U.S. During the first four months of Trump's second term, the New York Stock Exchange experienced significant turbulence, frequently plunging into the red and wiping away substantial gains from the previous year. The Dow, a key indicator of the performance of America's largest corporations, experienced a notable decline of approximately 11.5% over four months. Following the trade agreements and the easing of uncertainty, the index recovered, settling at around 44,340 points as of late July, with a 0.72% rise in the last six months. Similarly, the S&P 500, another key indicator of U.S. economic health, had declined by approximately 18% over the preceding four months. It had briefly fallen below the psychologically significant 5,000-point mark, illustrating the breadth of market uncertainty. As of late July, the index stood at approximately 6,296 points, up around 4% over the previous six months, reaching record levels in early July. The technology-heavy Nasdaq had borne the brunt of market anxieties, experiencing the largest decline of the major indices. It plummeted 24% to 15,270 points, demonstrating investors' growing apprehension about technology firms and their global supply chains. However, over the last six months, the Nasdaq rose 5.76% to record levels of 20,895, with chip company Nvidia leading the gains. The VIX volatility index, often referred to as Wall Street's 'fear' gauge, had surged dramatically. It rose an alarming 66.6% to 25, spiking briefly beyond 52 points – a record in recent years. The fear index settled around 16.4 as of late July, as tariff fears eased following the uncertainty. Alongside equity markets, currency markets also saw volatility. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against major global currencies, fell 10%, declining to around 98.50. Conversely, the euro surged significantly, climbing approximately 13% against the dollar, settling at $1.16, compared to $1.04 six months earlier. With greater initial uncertainty, investors rushed toward safer investment havens, most notably gold. Gold prices soared dramatically as uncertainty spread throughout financial markets. During Trump's first six months in office, the price surged 24%, jumping from around $2,700 per ounce in late January to $3,350 by late July. In late April, gold reached a historic high, surpassing $3,500, reflecting growing concerns about global economic turmoil. Conversely, oil markets faced downward pressure. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell approximately 14.3%, dropping from nearly $80.2 per barrel in late January to around $68.60 by late July. Market analysts attribute the slump partly to concerns that Trump's tariffs would dampen global trade activity, reducing oil demand worldwide. On the other hand, oil experienced a short-lived spike in June, after Israel and the U.S. attacked Iranian nuclear capabilities. Bitcoin, another asset closely watched due to Trump's past enthusiasm for cryptocurrency, also witnessed initial volatility before reaching all-time highs. Initially buoyed by Trump's campaign pledge to make the U.S. the global crypto capital, bitcoin had sharply declined by around 8.5% during Trump's first three months in office. However, following the easing of uncertainty after trade deal announcements and regulatory optimism, the world's largest cryptocurrency exceeded the $120,000 threshold in July. Perhaps most notably affected by market uncertainty were shares of technology and innovation-driven companies, often collectively referred to as the 'Magnificent Seven.' Electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Tesla, whose CEO, Elon Musk, was one of Trump's staunchest financial supporters, contributing more than $130 million to the president's election campaign, suffered the sharpest losses in the group. Tesla's shares fell dramatically, plummeting 20% over the past six months. Although Trump's initial election victory had provided a substantial boost to Tesla shares due to his enthusiasm for tech innovation, the realities of global economic uncertainty and reduced investor confidence took their toll on the company's valuation. Especially after Musk parted ways with the U.S. president, Tesla's shares declined by around 10% in less than a month. Over the last six months, the EV giant's shares have plummeted by more than 22%. Following Tesla in losses was Apple, which experienced a 5.1% decline since Jan. 20. Google's parent company, Alphabet, also suffered a 6.8% decline. E-commerce and tech giant Amazon also saw a decline of around 2% in the same period. The losses were significantly lower than they were just two months ago, as announcements of trade agreements and suspensions alleviated fears and uncertainty in the markets. Conversely, Nvidia saw a 22.4% climb in its stock price within six months as the demand for artificial intelligence technologies continues to grow. It also became the first publicly traded company to reach a $4 trillion market value. Microsoft shares rose 19% and Meta shares increased 14.2% over the same period.
