Iran Concerns and Dollar Weakness Support Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil and gasoline prices settled higher Tuesday after the dollar index (DXY00) fell to a 3 1/3-year low. Also, concerns that Middle East tensions could flare up again are pushing crude prices higher after Iran moved to cut off communications with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Additionally, better-than-expected global economic news on Tuesday is supportive of energy demand and crude oil prices. Gains in crude are limited by expectations that OPEC+ will increase its crude production level by another 411,000 bpd when they meet on Sunday.
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Dollar Weakness and Iran Concerns Boost Crude Oil Prices
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Crude oil found support Tuesday after Iran moved to cut off communications with the IAEA, which could prompt the US and or Israel to launch additional attacks on Iran's nuclear sites. President Trump said the US will "be there" unless Iran backs away from its nuclear program.
Tuesday's global news showed economic strength that was positive for energy demand and crude prices. The US June ISM manufacturing index rose +0.5 to 49.0, stronger than expectations of 48.8. Also, the June ISM prices paid sub-index rose +0.3 to 69.7, stronger than expectations of 69.5. The US May JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose +374,000 to a 6-month high of 7.769 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of a decline to 7.300 million. In addition, the Eurozone June manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 49.5 from the previously reported 49.4. Finally, Japan's Tankan Q2 large manufacturing business conditions survey unexpectedly rose by +1 from Q1 to 13, stronger than expectations of a decline to 10.
Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices. Last Wednesday, Russia stated that it is open to another output hike for OPEC+ crude production in August, when the group meets this Sunday. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd crude production hike for July after raising output by the same amount for June. Saudi Arabia has signaled that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and punish overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production. OPEC+ had previously planned to restore production between January and late 2025; however, production cuts won't be fully restored until September 2026. OPEC May crude production rose +200,000 bpd to 27.54 million bpd.
Gasoline prices have support from the American Automobile Association (AAA) projection that a record 61.6 million people will travel by car this Fourth of July holiday (June 28 to July 6), up +2.2% from last year and a sign of stronger gasoline demand.
Oil prices continue to be undercut by tariff concerns, as President Trump recently stated that he intends to send letters to dozens of US trading partners within one to two weeks, setting unilateral tariffs ahead of the July 9 deadline that followed his 90-day pause.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -8.7% w/w to 80.22 million bbl in the week ended June 27.
The consensus is that Wednesday's weekly EIA crude inventories will decrease by -3.1 million bbl, and gasoline supplies will rise by +900,000 bbl.
Last Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of June 20 were -10.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -20.3% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending June 20 was unchanged w/w at 13.435 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending June 27 fell by -6 to a 3-3/4 year low of 432 rigs. Over the past 2-1/2 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen from the 5-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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