Healthy life for a healthy ageing
According to the World Health Report 1998, the average life expectancy at birth in 2025 was expected to be 73 years, which was 48 years in 1955 and 65 years in 1995.
Today, on average, people live more than 73 years. Average life expectancy in Europe, Oceania, America, and Japan is close to 80 years.
In Malaysia, it is more than 74 years. Indeed, the prediction came true. In other words, the dream of having a prolonged life is now a reality.
How long will people live who will be born in the year 2040 and beyond? The more pressing question is to fathom the expected lifespan of those who are in their 40s or younger today.
Looking at the trend of increasing life span, it is not unlikely that they might live longer than those who were in their 40s twenty years ago.
Turning the dream of a prolonged life into a reality came with a price—the cost of coping with the ageing population.
Developed countries are facing the challenges of declining labor force participation and increased healthcare costs to cope with the aging population. Malaysia will not be an exception.
The simple and straightforward policy strategy is to estimate the potential ratio of the aged population, then prepare the necessary infrastructures, including the required number of geriatricians and caregivers to provide support for the elderly.
Given the rise of artificial intelligence, the countermeasure to deal with a declining labor force participation and increased healthcare costs might be easier than anticipated.
For example, replacing human labour with AI, especially by developed nations would minimise the shortage of human labour in the long run.
But that will not solve the problem of the burden of the growing aged population in society. Every nation has to deal with the elderly. At the same time, there is a strong possibility that the elderly in the future might face different health complications from those of today.
It is well known that the risk of developing dementia rises steeply with age in people of 60 years. In addition to that, a population-based study in Seoul suggested a potential link between COVID-19 vaccination, particularly mRNA vaccines, and increased incidences of Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment.
If that trend continues, dealing with the cognitively impaired elderly will require additional measures than those with physical ailments.
Besides, dealing with the elderly in 2040 and beyond will come with different sets of challenges.
Those who are in their 40s today will belong to the elderly by 2040 and beyond. Several unforeseen health determinants emerge among these current youths and adults that were less prevalent among their earlier counterparts.
According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) the number of marriages decreased 12.5% from 215,022 (2022) to 188,100 (2023).
Arguably, happy marriages are linked to a healthy life at an older age. Besides, a family life comes with an opportunity for family care of the elderly by their next generations.
Hence, those are are forced or intended to continue unmarried life might face unforeseen mental and physical health concerns in their old age.
Struggles with economic precarity, job security, and workplace stress are more common among the current generations of youths and adults.
This array of continuous physical and psychological stress incubates the potential non-communicable diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases, at an older age.
In other words, those who are in their 40s living a stressful life are expected to face challenging health issues in their old age.
Finally, the experience of COVID-19 has made us ponder with caution if there should be another emerging pandemic that will be equally or more fatal for the elderly with or without the comorbidity of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases.
In summary, the elderly in 2040 and beyond might struggle more with cognitive impairment, non-infectious diseases, and above all, psychological distress.
Therefore, the long-term policy to ensure good health for the aged population is not only about building infrastructure but also ensuring that the youths and adults today will have a healthy life for a healthy ageing.
At the same time, the possibility of unforeseen fatality of the elderly with another potential pandemic must remain in the backdrop of the policy platform. ‒ June 4, 2025
Prof Mohammad is the Deputy Executive Director (Development, Research & Innovation) at International Institute of Public Policy and Management (INPUMA), Universiti Malaya.
The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Focus Malaysia.
Main image: UNFPA
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