Morning Bid: The euro's big beautiful moment

Reuters

16 hours ago

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today
Investors are keeping a wary eye on the progress of President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful" U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill that is slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by Trump's preferred July 4 deadline. Meanwhile, over on Wall Street, futures on the S&P 500 suggest another record high might be in the offing later on.
Mike Dolan is enjoying some well-deserved time off over the next two weeks, but the Reuters markets team is here to provide you with all the information you need to start your day.
Today's Market Minute
* Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting U.S. technology firms late on Sunday, just hours before it was due to take effect, in a bid to advance stalled trade negotiations with the United States.
* The trade deal signed between U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowering some tariffs on imports from Britain has come into effect, the British government said on Monday.
* A million-dollar question will hang over the world's top central bankers when they meet in Sintra, Portugal, from Monday evening: Is the monetary system centred on the U.S. currency beginning to unravel?
* The war between Israel and Iran offered a real-time look at some new global cross-asset dynamics that can help investors understand the state of play in the first half of 2025 and what they can expect in the next six months. TPW Advisory founder Jay Pelosky details three key takeaways from the conflict.
* Plus, ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso explains why Egypt was one of the biggest economic losers of the Middle East's 12-day war.
The euro's big beautiful moment
The euro is heading for a ninth straight day of gains versus the dollar, something it has only achieved three times since its inception in 1999. Another daily rise and we're in record territory.
In 2025's "everyone hates the dollar" trading environment, the euro, and European assets in general, have to be real magnets for investor cash.
The euro itself has gained nearly 14% against the dollar so far this year, while its performance against other currencies has been far less eye-popping. It has risen around 3.5% against both the pound and the Japanese yen and has barely broken even against the Swiss franc and Norwegian crown.
Confidence in the United States as an investment destination - not just in markets, but for businesses too - has not vanished, but has taken a serious knock from the erratic and unpredictable policies of the Trump administration.
This would not be obvious when looking through the lens of the stock market, given the S&P 500 is at record highs, in dollar terms at least. When priced in other currencies, it is a long way off.
Europe's STOXX 600 has risen 7% so far this year, compared with the S&P's 5% rise. On an equal-weighted basis, the divergence is even more marked. Wall Street's Magnificent 7 are back in vogue, but not quite riding to the rescue. The equal-weighted S&P is up 3.3% versus a near-10% gain in the STOXX equivalent.
That said, in spite of the chaos from Trump's on-again off-again tariffs, the heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East and the deficit-busting "One Big Beautiful Bill" that is up for debate in the Senate right now, investors aren't exactly ditching U.S. assets en masse.
"Anywhere But The USA" may sound catchy as an investment theme, but it has taken more than that to lure capital into Europe.
European governments, spearheaded by Germany, have pledged to unleash a one trillion euro ($1.17 trillion) spending bazooka, much of which will be concentrated on defence and infrastructure, as they attempt to address years of riding on the coattails of Washington for security, and of shortfalls in spending on basics at home.
The July 9 deadline for a trade deal is less than two weeks away - and with Trump saying he will impose 50% tariffs on all EU goods without a deal - investors are moving their money.
Data from LSEG's Lipper Funds show that more than $100 billion has flowed into European equity funds so far this year - up threefold from the same period last year - while outflows from the U.S. more than doubled to nearly $87 billion.
"All that is an indication that at least market forces, investors, those who move real money around, actually see value and have confidence in Europe," European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said earlier this month.
She said now is the time for Europe to take its destiny into its own hands, and that this is the euro's "moment".
Chart of the day
With the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Friday, the June employment report lands on Thursday. A Reuters poll shows economists expect to see a rise of 129,000, slightly below May's 139,000 increase.
Evidence of the impact on the economy from Trump's tariffs and their potentially inflationary effect, along with the mass layoffs among government employees and the likelihood of big cuts to a raft of welfare benefits is starting to materialise in other data points.
So far, the monthly non-farm payrolls report has not been one of them. May's number marked the fifth upside surprise in the past 12 months, and the ninth reading below the 200,000 mark over the past year. Layoffs are historically low, but hiring is not exactly booming.
The most recent weekly jobless claims numbers showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell, but work opportunities are becoming scarce as businesses are reluctant to hire while things such as import tariffs are in flux.
Today's events to watch
* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal
* Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy in London
* Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Aspen Ideas Festival 2025
* June Chicago PMI
* Three- and six-month Treasury bill auctions
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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($1 = 0.8533 euros)