Bitcoin to $1 Million by 2028? Arthur Hayes Says It's Inevitable.
A System Built On Sand
Hayes sees Bitcoin's price action as a structural response to the erosion of financial sovereignty. When the U.S. decoupled the dollar from gold in 1971, it created a global financial system reliant on credit issuance, massive debt accumulation, and central bank intervention.
'The people who benefited the most are those who issue credit – commercial banks,' Hayes explains. 'And anyone who challenges their dominance tends to fall afoul of regulators.'
From his perspective, Bitcoin's rise is not a random fluke, it's a very clear reaction. A decentralized, scarce, programmable asset stands in stark contrast to the highly centralized, inflationary fiat model.
The Trump Factor And The Strategic Reserve Illusion
Hayes is less impressed by politicians claiming to embrace Bitcoin, especially when it is there to serve a populist narrative. Take President Trump's Executive order on the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, while the move grabbed headlines and delighted many in the Bitcoin and crypto community, Hayes remains sceptical.
'Governments buy assets for political reasons and sell them for political reasons,' he warns. 'Why tether your financial future to the whim of politics?'
He doesn't see this as actual adoption, but only as a tactical appeal to voters disillusioned by deindustrialization, wage stagnation, and the rise of big finance. Still, the political interest in Bitcoin, no matter how superficial, signals a shift in how governments perceive the role of digital assets in a post-dollar world.
Stablecoins Will Lead, But Bitcoin Will Reclaim The Narrative
In the short term, Hayes argues that stablecoins, particularly USD-backed ones like USDT, will see greater real-world adoption, especially in regions with limited banking access.
'People want dollars, not volatility,' he notes, citing the Middle East, as a major growth market for stablecoins. Afterall, the Arab region's population is only approximately 40% banked according to the ESCWA Annual SDG Review 2025.
But that doesn't mean Bitcoin loses its edge in the stablecoin game. Quite the opposite. Hayes predicts Bitcoin dominance will rise to 70% just before we will see unprecedented price action to $1 million.
Why $1 Million Bitcoin Isn't As Wild As It Sounds
At the heart of Hayes' forecast is one simple principle: the fiat system must inflate or collapse. Either path fuels Bitcoin's rise.
'The amount of money that will need to be printed just to maintain the current economic structure is staggering,' he explains. 'That's what's going to propel Bitcoin.'
Whether or not governments buy Bitcoin is secondary. Their policies of debt expansion, currency debasement, and geopolitical fragmentation will drive more capital into decentralized stores of value.
In other words, Bitcoin doesn't need the Government's buy-in or permission to win. We just let governments do their thing, and this leads to Bitcoin winning.
Beyond Price: A New Financial Era
Hayes' prediction of $1 million isn't rooted in hype. It's based on deep scepticism about the longevity of the current financial order and belief that a decentralized alternative is not only possible but necessary.
'This isn't just about crypto,' Hayes concludes. 'It's about dismantling a system that no longer works and building something better.'
Whether Bitcoin reaches $1 million by 2028 remains to be seen. But the conditions that could make it happen are already here.
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