Anti-Trump tide turns tables

The Star

04-06-2025

THE Trump factor is shaping global politics, one election at a time – just not necessarily to the president's liking.
In recent votes in Canada and Australia, centrists revived their fortunes while parties that borrowed from the Maga playbook faltered.
Although Donald Trump has been back in power only four months, his policies – from tariffs to upending alliances – have rippled into domestic political battles worldwide.
Voters seem to have Trump somewhere on their minds as they head to the polls.
Canada and Australia share much in common: a political system, a major mining industry and a sovereign in King Charles III. Now they also share a remarkable political story.
Before Trump's inauguration, the centre-­left ruling parties in both countries seemed poised to lose power. The front-runners were conservative parties whose leaders flirted with Trumpian politics in style and substance.
Yet, within weeks of Trump's return, both political landscapes flipped. The centre-­left incumbents surged ahead and went on to win. In both cases, the conservative leaders lost not just the elections but even their own parliamentary seats.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney campaigned on an explicitly anti-Trump message, placing the US president's threats to Canada at the heart of his campaign.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese did not do so explicitly, but both men benefitted from an anti-Trump bump.
Pierre Poilievre, head of Canada's Conservatives, and Peter Dutton, leader of Australia's opposition, struggled to shake off damaging associations with Trump.
Dutton backtracked on unpopular Trump-style proposals, such as radically cutting public sector jobs. Poilievre never pivoted away, even after Trump threatened Canada's sovereignty.
Charles Edel, Australia chair at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, called Australia's election a 'blowout' partly driven by Trump's implicit intrusion.
'There were enough similarities to the Canadian election to suggest the conservatives' fortunes fell as Trump's tariffs and attacks on America's allies ramped up,' he said.
In Canada, some viewed the Australian result as trans-Pacific solidarity.
'Albo Up!' an online meme proclaimed, swapping Albanese's nickname into Carney's anti-Trump slogan: 'Elbows Up!'
Carney capitalised on a perception that he would be a steady hand to manage Trump's unpredictable impact on Canada's economy, already hurting from tariffs and uncertainty. His background as an economic policymaker bolstered his image.
Across the globe in Singapore, a similar argument for stability also helped the ruling People's Action Party.
Last month, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong told his parliament that Singapore would suffer a heavier blow from US tariffs due to its reliance on global trade.
Much like Carney, who declared the old Canada-US relationship 'over', Wong issued a stark warning.
'The global conditions that enabled Singapore's success over the past decades may no longer hold,' he said.
On May 3, voters returned Wong's party to power – an expected outcome but one seen as strengthened by the party's 'flight to safety' strategy.
'This is another case of the Trump effect,' said Cherian George, an academic who has written on Singaporean politics. 'Deep concern about Trump's trade wars is driving many voters to strongly back the incumbent.'
In Germany, the first Western ally to hold a national election after Trump's return, the effect has been less direct but still present.
Friedrich Merz, sworn in as Germany's new chancellor on May 6, did not politically benefit from Trump's election the way leaders in Canada and Australia did.
However, Trump's confrontations with European allies on defence and trade have helped him since.
Merz successfully pushed for suspending spending limits in fiscally conservative Germany, arguing that old certainties about US commitment to mutual defence were gone.
'Do you seriously believe that an American government will agree to continue Nato as before?' he asked lawmakers in March.
Meanwhile, the far-right AfD party, embraced by Maga figures and endorsed by Elon Musk, failed to capitalise. Polls suggest its ties to Trump did it no favours.
An unpredictable US president can yield unpredictable outcomes abroad, as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is learning.
Starmer, a centre-left leader who won office before Trump's return, initially won praise for his businesslike dealings with Washington.
Unlike Carney, Starmer avoided direct criticism of Trump, seeking common ground and preventing rupture.
After a seemingly successful White House visit, even Starmer's political opponents acknowledged his deft handling.
At the same time, Nigel Farage – leader of the anti-immigration Reform UK party and a close Trump ally – struggled with accusations of sympathising with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Yet Starmer soon ran out of steam. He failed to parlay his pleasant US visit into exemptions from tariffs on British goods.
Early last month, his Labour Party suffered a significant setback in local and regional elections. It lost 187 council seats and a parliamentary by-election in one of its strongholds.
By contrast, Farage's party surged. Reform UK won that by-election, took two mayoralties and made sweeping gains across England.
For the first time, it seized control of the lowest tiers of government in several areas. — ©2025 The New York Times Company
This article originally appeared in The New York Times