Stars, stripes and sticker shock? Certain cookout items may be more expensive this year, study finds

The Hill

2 days ago

SAVANNAH, Ga. (WSAV) — You may be gearing up to start the grill and prepare the perfect July 4 picnic, but you may still find some sticker shock on grocery store shelves, despite a new report showing the average cookout will cost less than last year.
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), this year marks the second-highest average Independence Day cookout cost since the organization began tracking in 2013.
The average cost of a Fourth of July picnic for 10 people will cost $70.92 in 2025, down slightly from $71.22 last year.
'Inflation and lower availability of some food items continue to keep prices stubbornly high for America's families,' said AFBF associate economist Samantha Ayoub. 'High prices don't mean more money for farmers, however.'
'Farmers are price takers, not price makers,' she continued. 'Their share of the food retail dollar is just 15%. The cost of running their farm is up, from labor and transportation to taxes.'
The AFBF determines the average cost for cookout staples like cheeseburgers, potato salad and ice cream by having volunteers visit their local grocery stores nationwide to review prices. This year, the cost breakdowns were collected in early June.
The 2025 data show an increase in the cost of beef, potato salad and canned pork and beans, while there are drops in the cost of pork chops, chips, and hamburger buns.
The table below shows this year's estimated costs on the left, beside last year's costs found by AFBF.
According to the AFBF, 2025 marks the highest price for beef since they began tracking cookout prices. Rising beef prices have been fueled by drought conditions, consumer demand, and the recent New World screwworm threat. Meanwhile, pork prices have dropped compared to last year thanks to 'elevated production and higher market hog weights.'
Another analysis by Wells Fargo found similar price increases over the last year, as well as higher costs across produce items. Cauliflower, broccoli, potatoes, and baby carrots are all up at least 1 percent in that time frame, while cherry tomatoes are up 3.7 percent.
Common cookout goods that have also seen a price hike since 2024 include apple pie (1.5 percent), beer and wines (under 2 percent), liter bottles of soda (2 percent), and flavored sparkling waters (4.7 percent). Eggs, seemingly still seeing high prices due to the avian flu, are up 40 percent over the last year, according to Wells Fargo.
The latest Consumer Price Index shows at-home food costs are up 2.2 percent over the last year. The cost of food away from home, meanwhile, is up 3.8 percent.