The Problems of Fifteen: Turning 90, the Dalai Lama leaves behind a challenging legacy for the successor

Time of India

17 hours ago

Monks in maroon robes walking down wet cobblestone streets seemed to be disappearing into the rain clouds that shrouded
McLeodganj
in early July. Visibility was poor, the all-enveloping monsoon reaching earlier than usual meant the drizzle never really stopped.
It ought to have been a time of celebration with the Dalai Lama's 90th birthday address scheduled for July 6, but the weather was somewhat of a dampener. What perked up the local population was the announcement the
Dalai Lama
made on July 2, affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama would continue after his passing.
That had a galvanising effect on the exiled population, who escaped from Tibet in 1959, and has been living in McLeodganj, nestled under the 4,610-m-tall Moon Peak in the Dhauladhar range of the Himalayas.
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Truth be told, the Tibetan population needed the cheer. Life in exile was never supposed to last this long— more than six and a half decades. Going back looks impossible, and with time, issues have become more and more fraught, and unsolvable.
SOUL AUTHORITY
Live Events
In the face of a difficult life far from home, for most of the population, the Dalai Lama has been the binding force. But with him hitting 90 and with the looming uncertainty over the next Dalai Lama—partly due to the earlier pronouncements of the cur rent Dalai Lama about not reincarnating, and partly due to China's insistence on having control over the selection—the people had been looking for some reassurance.
The Dalai Lama, in his statement, also, crucially, rejected China's claim that it would have a final say in recognising the future occupant of the spiritual office.
While a 15th Dalai Lama might be a while away, awaiting the next spiritual leader will be a proverbial mountain of challenges, stemming from geopolitical realignments, China's moves to delegitimise the next occupant of the office, complex demographic shifts and a dwindling budget.
Q OF REINCARNATION
The near-universal acceptance of the current Dalai Lama has been a critical rallying point for a broader support of the Tibetan cause. Many fear that the next Dalai Lama, one not approved by China, may not find it easy to get the same level of support because of Beijing's likely diplomatic offensive.
What complicates matters is the commitment the Dalai Lama has made on following tradition in his reincarnation announcement. The age-old belief is that the Dalai Lama is reincarnated in a body of his choosing after his death. The process to identify such a person is rooted in inexact signs, including that of senior monks experiencing a vision and being guided to a toddler—the next leader
The age of any such person would pose a problem as he or she will have to be trained not just in the traditions and scriptures of Tibetan Buddhism, but also in navigating modern-day geopolitics. That means there could be a gap of well over a decade, and nearly two—before a child would be ready to truly assume the mantle.
'In my view, reincarnation is not a good system today, in the 21st century. To have a gap of 20 years is not good. Where will Tibet or the diaspora be in 20 years?' asks author, journalist and Tibetologist Claude Arpi.
The Dalai Lama had cued earlier that he could choose not to reincarnate, suggesting that he could pass on the mantle to a person of his choosing during his lifetime. That door has now been firmly shut, given the emphasis on tradition.
Beijing argues that the next spiritual leader of Tibet must be selected by drawing lots from the Golden Urn, with the chosen person ratified by China. That is not acceptable to many.
Andrew M Fischer, professor of inequality, social protection and development at Erasmus University Rotterdam, says, 'Whether or not one believes in the process, there is absolutely no value in recognising a reincarnation if it does not take place through a legitimate, established religious process. It would be like a country (say, the US) trying to dictate who the Pope will be instead of the Vatican and overriding the selection process.'
The Dalai Lama and Tibet's government-in-exile called the Central Tibetan Administration (
CTA
) argue vehemently against any Chinese claims to a role in the process.
'Beijing's worry,' says Jayadeva Ranade, president of Delhi-based Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, 'is that if the Dalai Lama is born outside the People's Republic of China, the next one will also continue to be a thorn in their side. The
Central Party School
in Beijing had prepared a detailed paper saying that they don't want a situation with two Dalai Lamas, as we have of two Panchen Lamas.'
Ranade is referring to Beijing's alleged abduction of
Gedhun Choekyi Nyima
, the 11th Panchen Lama (the second highest spiritual office in Tibetan Buddhism), in May 1995, and the installation of their own Panchen Lama, who has still not earned acceptance within Tibet, much to Beijing's chagrin.
One reason the Dalai Lama separated political power from spiritual office in 2011 was this fear of a gap before the next Dalai Lama comes of age. Much of the work over the last decade or so has focused on building the CTA to continue the hefty push for the Tibetan cause that the Dalai Lama has carried on his shoulders on the global stage for over six decades. The post of Sikyong was created as the political head of the CTA, thereby separating church and state.
The current Sikyong, Penpa Tsering, is aware of the enormity of the task. He says a key agenda is to convince other countries to follow the path of US, which passed the Resolve Tibet Act in 2024. The law pushes China to resume dialogue without preconditions in accordance with international law under the UN Charter.
Given China's economic and diplomatic muscle, that ask is the diplomatic equivalent of David versus Goliath.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
Back in 2011, around 150,000 Tibetans were living in India, but their numbers sharply tanked to about 89,000 in 2019. Now, there are only 65,000 of them, according to unofficial estimates.
The lure of a better life has attracted many to the West, from Scandinavia to Canada and Australia, affecting the dynamics of what has traditionally been a close-knit society.
This kind of diffusion has political implications. It could affect the Tibetan struggle for finding a middle ground with China, as it weakens the sinew of their pushback, not to mention their cultural anchoring.
As Fischer points out, 'The community in exile in India is in a demographic collapse due to outmigration. Hence, the future of the community is probably more influenced by this than the Dalai Lama's reincarnation, although if the Dalai Lama is no longer in McLeodganj, that will probably exacerbate the decline of the community.'
The Sikyong admits that this is a problem, something that he has been fighting back by putting together several programmes to keep the community cohesive, aware of its roots and fighting back, wherever in the globe they may be.
Will that be the same as being in McLeodganj or in Bylakuppe in Karnataka? As Arpi says, the key question is whether the successor will be able to play the role of a unifier.
TRUMP TROUBLES
Complicating matters are issues around funding. A huge portion of the funding for the Tibetan diaspora came from the US. But now President Donald Trump's move to reduce foreign aid has created significant issues.
Tsering is putting up a brave face, but it is clear the cuts have affected the community. The locals in McLeodganj say plenty of programmes have been scaled back, including community outreach through radio as well as cultural and spiritual programmes through institutions run by the diaspora.
For a community trying to keep its people together and its culture and way of life alive, those are significant. Tsering says much of the funding is being restored and that, by October, a vast majority of it will resume, and that the remaining gap will have to be bridged by identifying new sources.
This is a rude reminder that the Tibetans will have to diversify sources of support, which will be a critical part of the next Dalai Lama's assignment. For now, says Tsering, the emphasis is on institutionalising relationships with foreign governments, and finding new donors among them, something that will invite Chinese pushback.
TOUGH QUESTIONS
Where does India stand on all of this? The country has unquestionably been the biggest supporter of the Tibetan diaspora, but it does share its longest border with China.
Understandably, India's ministry of external affairs has been going slow as it does not want to rock the boat. Status quo works best for India, reckons Arpi.
India is already threading the needle. The country had to get on the defensive and clarify that it does not take any position on matters of faith, after China reacted sharply to
Union
minister Kiren Rijiju's backing of the Dalai Lama's stance on succession. The Chinese foreign ministry said India 'should stop interfering in China's internal affairs', resulting in Rijiju too having to clarify that he was speaking as a devotee.
But if the next Dalai Lama is reincarnated outside China, as is likely, things may change and India will be under immense pressure from both sides.
Ranade believes that the Chinese could try and squeeze India, and may even up the ante along the border in
Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh
, reviving the fight for what they claim to be old Tibetan territory.
Will any of this ultimately result in Tibetans being able to get some level of autonomy in their homeland—a solution called the middle way by the Dalai Lama?
According to Fischer, the reincarnation issue, 'will have no effect on China's control over Tibetan areas in China, which is now very solidly established, although it would create much resentment among Tibetans in China—those who are still religious, who are still probably the majority. But they do not have much power at this point'. He adds, 'The struggle is largely one of propaganda and public relations.'
Perhaps the wet dreary weather hugging the looming mountains in McLeodganj is nature's way of showing the scale of the challenge that awaits the successor to the spiritual throne of the Dalai Lama.