Japan heads to polls in key test for PM Shigeru Ishiba
Opinion polls suggest Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito may fall short of the 50 seats needed to retain control of the 248-seat upper house of parliament in an election where half the seats are up for grabs.
The polls show smaller opposition parties pushing for tax cuts and increased public spending are set to gain, among them the right-wing Sanseito, which vows to curb immigration, oppose foreign capital inflows and reverse gender equality moves.
A poor showing by the coalition could shake investor confidence in the world's fourth-largest economy and disrupt critical trade talks with the United States, analysts said.
Ishiba may have to choose between making way for a new LDP leader or scrambling to secure the backing of some opposition parties with policy compromises, said Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at the Asia Group in Japan.
"Each scenario requires the LDP and Komeito to make certain concessions, and will be challenging, as any potential partner has leverage in the negotiations."
After the election, Japan faces a deadline of Aug 1 to strike a trade deal with the United States or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market.
Such import levies could squeeze the economy and further pressure the government to give financial relief to households already reeling from inflation, such as a doubling of rice prices since last year.
With an eye on a jittery government bond market, the LDP has called for fiscal restraint, rejecting opposition calls for major tax cuts and welfare spending to soften the blow.
Ishiba's administration lost its majority in the more powerful lower house in October.
That was the LDP's worst showing in 15 years, roiling financial markets and leaving the prime minister vulnerable to no-confidence motions that could topple his administration and trigger a fresh general election.
Ruled by the LDP for most of the post-war period, Japan has so far largely avoided the social division and fracturing of politics seen in other industrialised democracies.
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Business Times
23 minutes ago
- Business Times
Japan heads to polls in key test for Prime Minister Ishiba
[TOKYO] Japanese voters headed to the polls on Sunday (Jul 20) in a tightly contested upper house election that could unleash political turmoil, with rising prices and immigration concerns threatening to weaken Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's grip on power. Voting ends at 8 pm (1100 GMT), when media are expected to project results based on exit polls. Opinion polls suggest Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and coalition partner Komeito may fall short of the 50 seats needed to retain control of the 248-seat upper house of parliament in an election where half the seats are up for grabs. The polls show that smaller opposition parties pushing for tax cuts and increased public spending are set to gain, among them the right-wing Sanseito which has grabbed voters with slick online messaging about a 'silent invasion' of foreigners. 'A lot of my friends are voting for Sanseito,' said Rin Kuramoto, a 21-year-old college student. 'I think their slogan of 'Japanese-first' is very powerful and easy to understand.' Kuramoto, who declined to say which party got her vote, braved sweltering summer heat to cast her ballot at a packed polling station at the Setagaya ward in Tokyo, the capital. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up About a fifth of registered voters had already cast their ballot before election day, a sharp increase from the last upper house election three years ago, public broadcaster NHK said. That could signal higher turnout, which may not be a good sign for Ishiba's government, although the vote is being held over a bank holiday weekend. A poor showing by his coalition could shake investor confidence in the world's fourth-largest economy and disrupt critical trade talks with the United States, analysts said. Ishiba may have to choose between making way for a new LDP leader or scrambling to secure the backing of some opposition parties with policy compromises, said Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at the Asia Group in Japan. 'Each scenario requires the LDP and Komeito to make certain concessions, and will be challenging, as any potential partner has leverage in the negotiations.' After the election, Japan faces a deadline of Aug 1 to strike a trade deal with the US or face punishing tariffs in its largest export market. These could squeeze the economy and further pressure the government to give financial relief to households already reeling from inflation, including a doubling of rice prices since last year. With an eye on a jittery government bond market, the LDP has called for fiscal restraint and rejected opposition calls for major tax cuts and welfare spending to soften the blow. Ishiba's administration lost its majority in the more powerful lower house in October. That was the LDP's worst showing in 15 years, roiling financial markets and leaving the prime minister vulnerable to no-confidence motions that could topple his administration and trigger a fresh general election. 'The LDP has been running the government without resolving anything,' said Kaoru Kawai, a 59-year-old novelist who voted for the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. Ruled by the LDP for most of the post-war period, Japan has so far largely avoided the social division and fracturing of politics seen in other industrialised democracies. REUTERS
Business Times
an hour ago
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A spokesperson for the exchange, citing confirmation from several data providers including Dealogic, KPMG and EY, told The Business Times that its IPO fundraising in H1 put it at the top of global IPO rankings. The top listing on HKEX during this period was the US$5.3 billion IPO of China's largest battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology in May. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up This was followed by the HK$9.9 billion raised by Chinese drugmaker Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, which also took place in May, and the HK$9.4 billion IPO in June staged by China's largest condiment maker, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food. Hong Kong has long been in an intense tussle with Shanghai for the title of being China's primary funding source, and it seems that Hong Kong has the upper hand for now. As at Jul 8, Dealogic's team counted 184 planned IPOs in Hong Kong, all of which were from the city and the mainland, with the exception of two from the Cayman Islands, and one each from Malaysia, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates. Of the planned IPOs, 49 belong to the technology sector. Perris Lee, head of convertible bonds and Asia-Pacific equity capital markets at Ion Analytics, the parent company of Dealogic, said: 'At this point, we can say with much certainty that technology stocks will be central to many of the Hong Kong IPOs in the queue, thanks in no small part to (Chinese artificial intelligence company) DeepSeek.' He attributes the recent strong rally in Hong Kong stocks to a Deepseek-inspired optimism that may also spill over to industries such as healthcare and consumer-related businesses. The hectic pace of fundraising is also supported by what analysts call 'homecoming' listings by mainland Chinese companies with stocks already listed elsewhere outside the mainland, primarily in the US. Lee said that, given a US-China relationship that has been 'polite' at best in recent years, there have been many such homecoming listings in Hong Kong and China by US-listed Chinese companies. 'Many of the US-listed companies that should or could seek a secondary listing have done so,' he said. 'Only a few remain on the drawing board.' In particular, he named technology giant Alibaba and electric vehicle (EV) maker Xpeng. 'These two deals were significant in many ways. One key aspect is that they were doing a dual primary listing in Hong Kong, rather than a secondary listing. Dual primary listings subject the companies to strict regulations in both the US and Hong Kong.' The immediate prospects are brightened by a long listing pipeline stretching well into the coming year. 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CNA
2 hours ago
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South Korean prosecutors seek drone chief arrest over operation in North Korea
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