Russia oil squeeze: Trump's 100% tariff threat - should India panic?

Time of India

3 days ago

Penalty tariffs by the US would mean that Russia's crude oil imports would no longer be a lucrative option for India.
US President Donald Trump's fresh threat of 100% secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia poses an important question - will India's crude oil supply be hit? At present, India and China are the main purchasers of Russian oil.
India relies heavily on imported crude oil, with over 85% of its requirements being met through imports. This crude oil is processed in refineries to produce various fuels, including petrol and diesel.
"We're very, very unhappy with (Russia). And we're going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don't have a (Ukraine peace) deal in 50 days. Tariffs at about 100%, you'd call them secondary tariffs," Trump said earlier this week.
The secondary tariffs, if the threat materializes, would impose a 100% tariff on products entering the US from countries conducting trade with Russia.
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In 2019, India stopped its oil imports from Iran when Trump, whilst serving his first presidential term, warned of implementing secondary sanctions against Iranian oil purchasers. Despite similar threats, China persists with its Iranian oil purchases without facing consequences.
But what does this sanction threat by Trump, and even NATO, mean for India? And should India be worried?
India's Crude Oil Imports From Russia: Top Facts
Whilst the Middle East historically served as the primary source for India's crude oil imports, Russia has emerged as the dominant supplier since 2022.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western countries largely boycotted Russian crude oil. Subsequently, Russia offered substantial discounts on its crude to secure new buyers.
Indian refineries took advantage of these discounted rates, transforming Russia from a minor supplier into India's principal source of crude oil, surpassing the traditional West Asian suppliers.
Who bought Russia's fossil fuels in June 2025?
According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CERA) analysis, since the ban on Russian oil, China has bought 47% of Russia's crude exports, followed by India (38%), the EU (6%), and Turkiye (6%).
In FY22, Russia made up just 2.1% of India's oil imports. Come financial year 2024-25, Russia's share in India's value of oil imports is a staggering 35.1%
In FY22, India bought $2,256 million of Russian oil - three years later that number stands at a whopping $50,285 million!
According to vessel tracking data from global commodity market analytics firm Kpler, India's Russian crude imports reached 2.08 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, marking the highest level since July 2024.
India's worldwide crude oil imports declined 6% during June, yet Russian shipments increased by 8% compared to the previous month. According to CERA, three Indian refineries, which also supply processed petroleum products to G7+ nations, accounted for over 50% of these Russian oil purchases.
What Will Be The Impact Of Sanctions on India?
Penalty tariffs by the US would mean that Russia's crude oil imports would no longer be a lucrative option for India. The increased cost of exporting goods to the US would far outweigh any benefits of discounts offered by Russia for crude oil purchase.
In fact, Russia's discounts on crude oil sold to India have also come down gradually.
According to Western media reports, the secondary tariffs would have broader implications for India, affecting all merchandise exports from the purchasing country, rather than the current system where penalties are limited to entities conducting business with sanctioned Russian organisations.
Discount of Urals oil prices to Brent over time
Indian refiners may need to return to their conventional West Asian suppliers and explore new sources like Brazil to compensate for the reduction in Russian oil imports.
However, these alternative supplies would be costlier, with prices approximately $4-5 per barrel higher, according to a TOI report.
The government had sought assistance from two major West Asian nations to secure oil supplies through alternative routes when concerns arose about potential disruptions in shipping via the Strait of Hormuz during the recent Israel-Iran conflict.
According to industry experts, Indian refiners are expected to maximise their purchases of discounted Russian crude before the deadline, similar to their strategy during the Israel-Iran tensions, whilst simultaneously securing alternative supply arrangements.
Should India Be Worried? Simply put, No!
Gaurav Moda, Partner and Leader, Energy Sector, EY-Parthenon India is of the view that India's three-pronged strategy in the last few years will work in its favour, keeping it relatively insulated from any major oil supply shock.
Firstly, we have diversified our crude oil procurement markets to beyond OPEC ++. This has helped bring certainty in oil supply for India, Gaurav Modi tells TOI.
'Secondly, over the last few years India has been building strategic oil reserves both domestically and leasing oil reserves.
Thirdly, OMCs have also been storing anywhere between 15 days to 3 months of oil reserves,' he said.
'These three steps make India relatively less vulnerable to any oil supply issues caused by geopolitical tensions,' he explained.
India is already signalling growing affinity to crude oil imports from various countries. India's crude oil imports from the United States increased by more than 50% during the first half of 2025 in comparison to H1 2024, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.
Additionally, imports from Brazil saw an 80% rise during the same timeframe. This indicates Indian refiners' increasing preference for non-OPEC crude sources as the country aims to diversify its supply channels.
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The renewed diplomatic engagement with the current US administration has also sparked a fresh interest amongst Indian buyers for American crude oil supplies.
Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has also dismissed fears of likely impact on India if Russian oil supply is choked through secondary tariffs.
'I'm not worried at all. If something happens, we'll deal with it," Puri has said.
"India has diversified the sources of supply and we have gone, I think, from about 27 countries that we used to buy from to about 40 countries now," he said.
Will The US Threat Come Through?
Interestingly, Indian oil industry officials interpret US President Donald Trump's warning of imposing 100% secondary tariffs on Russia as a strategic negotiation move, believing it would have minimal actual impact on worldwide oil trade or India's Russian crude purchases.
Oil refinery executives are of the view that the tariffs would harm the US as well. If enacted, it would potentially block Russia from participating in the global oil trade, causing oil prices to surge beyond $120 per barrel. This would contradict Trump's objectives of maintaining low energy costs and could trigger worldwide inflation, they say.
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Oil industry leaders told ET that imposing 100% tariffs on India and China for their Russian oil purchases could backfire, as elevated import costs from these countries would in turn affect US consumers in terms of higher prices and create political challenges for Trump's administration.
"This whole tariff game is about Trump trying to strike deals with countries, including Russia, not about disrupting energy trade or dealing with high inflation at home," an executive told ET.
Russia maintains significant oil export volumes, shipping approximately 4.5-5.0 million barrels per day (mbd) of crude oil, constituting about 5% of global consumption. Additionally, the country supplies roughly 2 mbd of processed petroleum products to international markets.
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