If this ceasefire holds, Trump's foreign policy agenda would be a roaring triumph
In a Truth Social post, the American president claimed that Israel had agreed to a 60-day-ceasefire in Gaza and urged Hamas to accept a deal 'because it will not get better.'
Strong words, but is Trump's optimism about peace in Gaza warranted? Hamas and its main sponsor Iran's current vulnerabilities play into Trump's hands. Israeli public opinion adds to this positive outlook. Even though only 21 per cent of Israelis surveyed in a February-March 2025 Pew Research poll believe in peaceful coexistence with Palestinians, the popularity of a long-term occupation of Gaza has nosedived. The clout of pro-peace voices, ranging from hostage families to opposition leader Yair Lapid, has also grown.
Despite these trends, though, history shows that there are reasons for pessimism. The last two truce-for-hostage release deals in November 2023 and January 2025 dramatically unravelled and morphed into higher-intensity conflict. Many of the same factors that caused peace to fail in the past are still impeding the path to a sustainable ceasefire today.
The biggest roadblock to peace is Hamas's continued influence in the Gaza Strip. Israel has assassinated Hamas's senior leadership figures such as Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh, and most recently killed Hakham Muhammad Issa Al-Issa, the logistical mastermind of the October 7 attacks.
Despite claiming these big scalps, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu cannot claim victory in his maximalist goal of eradicating Hamas. This failure is causing Netanyahu's far-Right coalition partners to push for continued war in Gaza.
On Monday, Israeli finance minister Betzalel Smotrich confidently declared that an end to the Gaza War will not happen, and that Netanyahu is not ready to sue for peace. Israeli national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, meanwhile, is forming an intra-Cabinet coalition with Smotrich to thwart the deal's implementation.
Aside from creating political rifts in Netanyahu's orbit, Hamas's survival paves the way for a longer-term Israeli military presence in Gaza. Israeli defence minister Israel Katz wants Israeli forces to remain in security zones in Gaza and provide a 'buffer' to protect Israeli communities.
This stipulation could cause Hamas to reject the ceasefire deal and diminish the prospects of the release of the 50 remaining Israeli hostages. A lack of clarity on the path to a Palestinian state, the probable expansion of Israel's West Bank settlement infrastructure and the continued bellicosity of Yemen's Houthi militants create an even more perilous environment for peace.
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