Can Pheu Thai retain its grip on power?

Bangkok Post

3 days ago

Thaksin Shinawatra reappeared in politics after a conspicuous absence following the leak of the phone conversation between his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn and former Cambodian PM Hun Sen.
He expressed confidence that Ms Paetongtarn, who has been suspended from duty as prime minister over the content of the controversial telephone call, will survive the ongoing crisis. But this was always going to be wishful thinking.
While speaking on a chat show, the Pheu Thai Party's de facto leader likened the suspension of Ms Paetongtarn, pending a court ruling, to that of Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, saying the latter was later acquitted. And in his view, this might also be the case for his daughter.
Besides, Thaksin has confidence that Thai politics will not experience a deadlock as long as he is around.
Political pundits, however, envisage the opposite scenario for Ms Paetongtarn, who is currently serving as culture minister. The Constitutional Court is expected to hand down a ruling against her in a month or two. In fact, the Pheu Thai Party cannot afford to be so optimistic regarding Ms Paetongtarn's political future. It is involved in a tough game with Bhumjaithai, a friend turned foe, which is pushing for Anutin Charnvirakul to take the political baton as "interim prime minister" in accordance with a proposal drawn up by the People's Party.
Pheu Thai's immediate plan is to pass the torch to Chaikasem Nitisiri, the party's third prime ministerial candidate, who has regained his strength after a long illness. Mr Chaikasem, now 76 years of age, told the media he's ready for the top job when the time comes.
It could be said that all political parties foresee a political scenario without Ms Paetongtarn. Pheu Thai has to accept the hard fact that the party, with its slim majority, is politically vulnerable. Even if Mr Chaikasem eventually assumes the role of PM, he may not be able to stay in power for long, particularly if and when financial bills are shot down, as this would mean the government would have to resign.
Coming into the picture is the idea of "interim prime minister". This idea was coined by the People's Party as a way out of the political impasse if Ms Paetongtarn is removed from office. Surprisingly, the opposition bloc leader said, while insisting it will stay out of a new coalition, said it will vote for any party that accepts its conditions: dissolving parliament by end of the year after the approval of 2026 budget, and proceeding with charter amendment, especially setting the groundwork for the formation of a charter drafting panel. Under the People's Party's conditions, the interim PM must ensure that poll ballots include a referendum question on whether voters approve the charter panel's bill.
Given its surging popularity, the People's Party is the only one that is ready for snap elections. Besides, the interim government plan could prevent political intervention in case of Ms Paetongtarn's downfall, referring to Section 5 of the 2017 charter. This enables the palace to appoint an outsider prime minister if and when the country faces political deadlock. Under that scenario, therefore, there is speculation that Gen Prayut, who is now a privy councillor, may make a political comeback. Lest we forget, the former junta leader still retains his position as a PM candidate for the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party. Another form of intervention, a coup d'etat, is even more worrisome.
The People's Party concedes that it is in talks with Bhumjaithai to see the proposal being translated into reality. But the chances are almost nil. This is because even if the two parties enter into an alliance, they will still need around 40 MPs to secure the premiership for the Bhumjaithai leader. But three parties in the coalition, namely UTN (36 MPs), Democrat (25 MPs), and Chart Thai Pattana (10 MPs), which have received rewards from Pheu Thai in the form of cabinet seats appear to favour the status quo, thus, they see no benefit in the interim government proposal.
Not to mention that the coalition parties are waiting for another bonus if Ms Paetongtarn is replaced with Mr Chaikasem, which would mean Pheu Thai would need to form a new cabinet again. In this case, they would get a chance to optimise demands for cabinet seats like in the previous reshuffle that saw micro parties, or even political factions with only 3-4 MPs, get big slices of the reshuffle cake. Pheu Thai would have to make sumptuous offers again to ensure no parties shift to Bhumjaithai.
Moreover, since the lawsuits against Thaksin over the extended hospitalisation known as the "14th-floor saga" and against his daughter for "Hun Sen-gate" will soon be wrapped up, it's necessary for Pheu Thai to cling on to power at this crucial time.
It's an open secret that Bhumjaithai finds changes to the constitution an unfavourable option. Undeniably, it is the current charter that opened the door for the much-criticised senatorial vote in which candidates who are believed to have affiliations with Bhumjaithai entered the Upper House in droves.
It will come as no surprise if the Senate throws cold water on charter amendment proposals. Besides this, the requirement for three referendums, as suggested by the charter court, would in effect stall the amendment efforts.
At the same time, even if Bhumjaithai and the People's Party can push the interim PM proposal, tight scrutiny by the latter would make Mr Anutin uncomfortable. Instead, as the Pheu Thai-led administration is unlikely to last long, the Bhumjaithai leader would rather wait for the next election when he has a better chance to become prime minister.
Last but not least, we must not forget that Pheu Thai still has House dissolution as its trump card. If other options seem not to be working, the party would rather start afresh instead of seeing Bhumjaithai rise to power.
By dissolving the House, the ruling party could retain its grip as a caretaker government for around two months and grasp whatever opportunities come its way.