Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on June 26 amid Israel-Iran ceasefire

Mint

3 days ago

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher on Thursday, tracking mixed global market cues amid cautiousness over the fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a mildly positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,296 level, a premium of nearly 43 points from the Nifty futures' previous close.
On Wednesday, the domestic equity market indices extended rally for the second consecutive session to end sharply higher, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 25,200 level.
The Sensex jumped 700.40 points, or 0.85%, to close at 82,755.51, while the Nifty 50 settled 200.40 points, or 0.80%, higher at 25,244.75.
Here's what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Nifty 50 continued to move up on June 25 and closed the day with healthy gains of 200 points.
'A reasonable positive candle was formed on the daily chart on Wednesday, after the formation of a negative candle of the previous session. Technically, this market action indicates an attempt of bulls to recover the intraday losses of Tuesday. The Nifty 50 is on the way towards the decisive upside breakout of the broader high low range of 25,200 - 24,500 levels,' said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
Further sustainable upside from here could pull Nifty 50 towards the next upside target of 25,600 - 25,700 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 25,000 levels, he added.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities noted that the Nifty 50 holds above the 9-day and 20-day moving averages, with the latter placed near 25,000, acting as a near-term cushion. The daily Supertrend support trails, indicating ample buffers on the downside.
'The RSI is now hovering above the key 60-mark, showing improving momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover. The India VIX declined sharply by 5% to 12.96, reducing near-term volatility concerns and creating a supportive outlook. If the index sustains above 25,200, the next potential stretch could be toward 25,330 – 25,410. On the downside, 25,100 - 25,000 now acts as immediate support,' Mehra said.
According to Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in, Nifty 50 formed a bullish candle near the upper Bollinger band, indicating strength in the index.
'The immediate resistance for the index is at 25,600 and then 26,200 levels and the support is now at 24,800 levels. The ADX DI+ line is sloping upside with the ADX average line, indicating momentum in the rally. The momentum indicators are sloping up, suggesting further momentum on the upside in the index,' said Dwarakanath.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, expects the market to lean towards a buy-on-dip strategy, especially if the Nifty 50 index opens below 25,000 due to any macroeconomic triggers.
'Currently, we are in a bullish trend with no signs of reversal. So, for the remaining trading session in June, we could expect Nifty to gain support between 25,000 and 24,950 and face resistance near 25,300 for the rest of the June session,' Ambala said.
Bank Nifty index gained 159.25 points, or 0.28%, to close at 56,621.15 on Wednesday, extending its rebound while respecting the rising channel boundaries.
'Bank Nifty formed a doji candle which remained enclosed inside previous session price range signaling consolidation amid stock specific action. Index in the process has retraced more than 80% of its recent breather (57,049 - 55,149). Momentum remains firmly positive above the 55,400 zone, which aligns with the recent consolidation base and the previous week's low, reinforcing it as a near-term pivot support,' said Bajaj Broking Market.
Looking ahead, it expects the Bank Nifty index to retest the all-time high near 57,050, with potential extension towards the 57,600-mark in the coming weeks.
'The daily 14 period RSI remains in an uptrend, further validating the bullish structure. Key structural support is placed at the 54,500 – 54,000 zone, marked by the confluence of the 50-day EMA and key Fibonacci retracement levels, acting as a strong downside cushion,' said the brokerage firm.
Om Mehra highlighted that the Bank Nifty index traded in a narrow band but managed to hold above its short-term moving averages.
'The 9-day and 20-day EMAs continue to act as support, while the 50-day is catching up from below. The setup reflects steady progress, though a stronger directional push is awaited. The RSI has climbed above 60, indicating momentum is gradually building after recent consolidation.
The immediate hurdle is placed near the upper channel resistance around 57,000, while the support for the near term stands at 56,200,' Mehra said.
A 'buy on dip' strategy would be the preferred approach for the upcoming session, he added.
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