
Business confidence subdued amid tariffs but ‘worst-case' less likely: BoC survey
The central bank's business outlook survey said 28 per cent of firms are now planning for a recession in Canada, down from 32 per cent last quarter but still up from 15 per cent over the previous two quarters.
Sales outlooks remain pessimistic overall due to widespread concerns about the effects of a slowing economy, but the report says recent monthly surveys suggest some improvement in firms' outlooks, especially among exporters because few have been directly affected by current tariffs.
Meanwhile, the Canadian survey of consumer expectations says spending intentions have weakened further because of persistent tariff threats.
Consumers also continue to see the labour market as soft amid 'elevated' fears of job loss.
The reports come ahead of the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision and monetary policy report set for July 30.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 21, 2025.

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Newsweek
11 minutes ago
- Newsweek
NATO Ally Shadows China Icebreaker
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The Canadian military confirmed to Newsweek that it is "actively monitoring" the Chinese icebreaker Xue Long 2, which was tracked entering Arctic waters from East Asia last week. "The top priority of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is the defense of Canada and Canadians, and we will continue to conduct activities needed to detect, deter, and defend against potential threats in, over, and approaching Canada," the Canadian Joint Operations Command said. Newsweek reached out to China's Foreign Ministry and Canada's Coast Guard via email for comment. Why It Matters China asserts itself as a "near-Arctic state" and an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs. In recent years, it has gradually expanded its presence in the region, including deploying its icebreaking fleet and conducting scientific research that could have military applications. The Xue Long 2's voyage comes amid growing Arctic rivalry between the United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, a Danish island rich in mineral and energy resources, and one that counts China as a key economic partner. Canada, Washington's key NATO ally, conducted an "Arctic awareness and sovereignty mission" in July of last year, during which one of its warships shadowed the Arctic-bound Xue Long 2, China's first domestically built icebreaker capable of conducting research. China's icebreaker Xue Long 2 leaving the Xiuying Port in Haikou on June 8, 2025. China's icebreaker Xue Long 2 leaving the Xiuying Port in Haikou on June 8, 2025. VCG/VCG via AP What To Know Using data from the vessel-tracking website MarineTraffic, Steffan Watkins, a research consultant based in Canada, said the Canadian Coast Guard vessel CCGS Sir Wilfrid Laurier shadowed the Xue Long 2 at a distance as it sailed from Japan toward Alaska. A Newsweek map shows that the Xue Long 2 departed East China on July 6 and was operating in the Chukchi Sea, located south of the Arctic Ocean and north of the Bering Strait, on July 18, following a transit past the west and north coasts of Japan and Russia's Far East. As of Tuesday, the Xue Long 2 was not in Canadian territorial waters, which extend up to 13.8 miles from the coastline, the Canadian Joint Operations Command told Newsweek. According to the Chinese company COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry, the icebreaker completed a 10-day, high-intensity maintenance on June 29 and returned to its polar expedition base in Shanghai, as it prepared for an Arctic scientific expedition mission scheduled for this month. The Sir Wilfrid Laurier, a multi-purpose ship capable of icebreaking, was deployed to the North Pacific last month for a patrol aimed at deterring illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing. According to the map, it departed Hakodate Port in northern Japan on July 8. The ship, one of seven Canadian icebreakers scheduled to deploy for the Coast Guard's Arctic summer operations between June and November, was tracked near Nome, Alaska, on July 19, as it shifted its mission to icebreaking and scientific support in the Arctic. While the voyages of the Chinese and Canadian vessels "unmistakably paralleled" each other during their transit to the Arctic, as described by Watkins, the Canadian Coast Guard denied that the Sir Wilfrid Laurier was shadowing the Xue Long 2, according to CBC News. Meanwhile, ADSBexchange, an online platform that collects real-time flight data, tracked a Canadian CP-140 patrol aircraft launching from Alaska and heading toward the Chinese vessel in the Arctic, Watkins revealed on Bluesky on Sunday. Watkins told Newsweek that only one patrol aircraft appears to have been deployed to Anchorage, flying nine-hour sorties every day or every other day. The Canadian Joint Operations Command confirmed to Newsweek that a CP-140 aircraft was based in Alaska. 🇨🇳 Chinese dual-use research vessel Xue Long 2 (MMSI:413381260) has returned to the Arctic, shadowed at a distance by CCGS Sir Wilfrid Laurier (MMSI:316052000) all the way from Japan. It appears #RCAF CP-140 Aurora 140108 #C2B1ED is monitoring Xue Long 2 right now. 👀 — Steffan Watkins 🇨🇦 (@ 2025-07-21T02:32:24.602Z Canada has been deploying military patrol aircraft to Alaska for at least the past two years to monitor Chinese research vessels in the Arctic; however, such missions have not been made public. "Canadians should be aware and appreciate what the air force does," Watkins said. What People Are Saying The Canadian Joint Operations Command said in a statement to Newsweek on Tuesday: "Competitors are exploring Arctic waters and the seafloor, probing our infrastructure, and collecting intelligence using dual-purpose research vessels and surveillance platforms. The [Canadian Armed Forces] will continue to actively monitor the Xue Long 2 so long as it continues to operate near Canadian territorial waters." Steffan Watkins, a research consultant based in Canada, told Newsweek on Tuesday: "I'm sure some of [Chinese research vessel] deployments to the Pacific are academic-research related, but like American and Russian research vessels, I presume they're conducting some of that 'research' for their military; whether that's deploying or retrieving sensors, mapping undersea cables, collecting intelligence, measuring the salinity of the water, or other tasks." What Happens Next According to Watkins, Canada is expected to receive the first of its 16 P-8A patrol aircraft, each equipped with a long-range radar and high-resolution imaging and detection system, in 2026 and achieve full operational capability by 2033 for monitoring vessels of interest.


Hamilton Spectator
an hour ago
- Hamilton Spectator
S&P/TSX composite up Wednesday morning, U.S. markets also higher
TORONTO - Gains in battery metal stocks helped lift Canada's main stock index in late-morning trading on Wednesday, while U.S. markets also rose. The S&P/TSX composite index was up 76.52 points at 27,440.95. In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 204.92 points at 44,707.36. The S&P 500 index was up 15.51 points at 6,325.13, while the Nasdaq composite was up 13.96 points at 20,906.65. The Canadian dollar traded for 73.45 cents US compared with 73.34 cents US on Tuesday. The September crude oil contract was down 44 cents US at US$64.87 per barrel. The August gold contract was down US$20.60 at US$3,423.10 an ounce. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 23, 2025. Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
S&P/TSX composite up Wednesday morning, U.S. markets also higher
TORONTO — Gains in battery metal stocks helped lift Canada's main stock index in late-morning trading on Wednesday, while U.S. markets also rose. The S&P/TSX composite index was up 76.52 points at 27,440.95. In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 204.92 points at 44,707.36. The S&P 500 index was up 15.51 points at 6,325.13, while the Nasdaq composite was up 13.96 points at 20,906.65. The Canadian dollar traded for 73.45 cents US compared with 73.34 cents US on Tuesday. The September crude oil contract was down 44 cents US at US$64.87 per barrel. The August gold contract was down US$20.60 at US$3,423.10 an ounce. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 23, 2025. Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD) The Canadian Press