2025 MLB Draft primer: 5 names Cardinals could target with No. 5 pick

New York Times

2 days ago

For the first time in franchise history, the St. Louis Cardinals will have a top-10 draft pick in back-to-back years.
MLB's annual draft begins July 13 in Atlanta ahead of All-Star week. Thanks to some favorable fortune in the draft lottery, the Cardinals landed the No. 5 pick. This will be their highest selection since taking JD Drew fifth in 1998 and comes on the heels of their No. 7 selection (JJ Wetherholt) in 2024, which represented the organization's first top-10 pick in 28 years.
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Cardinals ownership made clear the organization would return to focusing on drafting and player development, areas in which the club thrived during the early 2010s.
'I've always been a draft-and-develop guy,' chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said in January. 'I think that's the best way to build a baseball team. Back when we bought the club, that's the path we took. I think we've reached a point in time where it's appropriate to focus on that.'
How will scouting director Randy Flores respond? There has been plenty of praise regarding last year's first-round selection, Wetherholt, who ranks as the Cardinals' top prospect. But this year's draft class isn't deemed nearly as strong as previous seasons. Mapping out who will be available at No. 5 is also more complicated than usual. The Washington Nationals have the first pick, but there is no true consensus on the top player in the class.
That leaves Flores' board wide open, but some names are more alluring to the organization than others. Let's look at five targets under the Cardinals' consideration, with scouting analysis provided by The Athletic's Keith Law.
Click here for Law's latest draft rankings and most recent mock draft.
Age: 17
Law's draft prospect ranking: No. 8
Law's scouting report: Willits, the son of former Angels outfielder Reggie Willits, is one of the leaders of the deep group of high school shortstops in this draft class, and one of the most likely to stay at the position for the long term. … He's a definite shortstop with soft, easy hands, a plus arm, and plus running speed, with the upside of 70 defense. His floor is pretty high because he can defend and make contact, which would at least make him a utility infielder, with above-average upside if he gets strong enough to get to some doubles power and hit .300 or so.
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Latest mock draft pick: No. 5 to the St. Louis Cardinals
Woo's analysis: I know, I know. The Cardinals already have a ton of middle infielders in their system, and between Wetherholt and Masyn Winn, shortstop appears locked up for the foreseeable future. But no organization drafts for need, especially with their top pick. You draft for best available, and Willits looks to be the best shortstop talent of his class.
Willits is a switch-hitter, though he profiles stronger from the left side. He's a young selection after reclassifying from the 2026 draft, but his speed and hit tools make him one of the most exciting prep talents available. The Cardinals would get a pure athlete with this pick, but not one ready to impact the big-league roster anytime soon.
Age: 21
Law's draft prospect ranking: No. 2
Law's scouting report: He spent the spring of 2025 dominating hitters with his 96-99 mph fastball, striking out 42.6 percent of batters he faced. He throws the heater more than 60 percent of the time, and hitters just don't hit it — they whiff over 40 percent of the time they swing at it, even though he's throwing it so often they can frequently just guess fastball and be correct. … The only knocks on Doyle seem to be the lack of track record before this year and the fact that the delivery is unorthodox, although he repeats the heck out of it, and I don't see a big red flag beyond the fact that he throws really hard. If his command and control hold up against better competition, he could be a No. 2 starter, and I wouldn't hesitate to start him at least in Double A.
Latest mock draft pick: No. 2 to the Los Angeles Angels
Woo's analysis: Doyle being available at No. 5 would qualify as a steal. Some chatter has linked Doyle to the Angels, who have the second pick and tend to draft quick-rising college-level talent.
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One of Doyle's attractive traits is that he seems to have a fast-track path to the major leagues. Again, no team drafts for immediate need, but if Doyle is available at No. 5, he'd be a tantalizing option for an organization looking to bolster upper-level pitching depth.
Age: 21
Law's draft prospect ranking: No. 6
Law's scouting report: Arnold came into the year as the likely top college pitcher on the board after a dominant sophomore season in 2024 that saw him finish third in Division I in strikeouts, behind only 2024 top-six picks Chase Burns and Hagen Smith. He's taken a tiny step back in stuff this year, although he's still topping out at 97-98, just sitting about a half a mile an hour less, so now he's 91-95 but with a ton of ride, coming from such a low slot — nearly sidearm — that hitters can't square it up. … There's definitely some reliever risk here with the low slot, but in this class he's pretty clearly one of the top-five talents, and at least a mid-rotation guy if he starts.
Latest mock draft pick: No. 6 to the Pittsburgh Pirates
Woo's analysis: The hype around Arnold has been real since last spring, when he finished with the third-most strikeouts in Division I. The two above him? Hagen Smith, who was selected fifth by the Chicago White Sox last year, and Chase Burns, who debuted for the Cincinnati Reds last month. There's a lot to like about Arnold, who joins Doyle and Kade Anderson as the top three left-handed starting pitchers in the class. Like Doyle, he projects to be a quick riser in the minor leagues.
Age: 20
Law's draft prospect ranking: No. 9
Law's scouting report: Witherspoon was dominant in his second year with the Sooners after he spent a year in junior college, cutting his walk rate almost in half, even though he's gained about a full mph on his heater since last year. Witherspoon will hold 95-97 deep into games, topping out at 99, with a five-pitch mix that includes a slider and cutter that run into each other, along with a 55 changeup that he needs to use more often. … There's so much to work with here, and a strong foundation of arm strength and strikes, with No. 2 starter upside if he gets the right development help.
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Latest mock draft pick: No. 14 to the Tampa Bay Rays
Woo's analysis: Witherspoon isn't ranked as high as Doyle or Arnold, but that's more of a testament to the depth of the starting pitching class. His upside is just as high, and it would be surprising if he were not the first right-handed college starter selected this year.
There is some debate whether Witherspoon is top-five material, but this could be an opportunity for the Cardinals to sign under slot and save money for their later picks. The Cardinals have a bonus pool of slightly over $14 million this year.
Age: 18
Law's draft prospect ranking: No. 1
Law's scouting report: There have been plenty of points in the past year-plus when Ethan has looked like the best prospect in the class. He has easy plus power already and projects to be more similar to his father in that regard than his brother, though he's not as advanced a hitter as Jackson was at the same age. Ethan has been inconsistent this spring at the plate, with his front side flying open as he tries too hard to get to that power, leaving him vulnerable to stuff on the outer third, although that's a fixable problem. … He's not a sure thing, given some of his swing-and-miss issues (such as on velocity up in the zone) and the mechanical adjustments he'll have to make, but he offers the best combination of upside and probability in the class.
Latest mock draft pick: No. 4 to the Colorado Rockies
Woo's analysis: To be clear, the probability of Holliday being available at No. 5 is slim. He has the potential to go first overall. But if he doesn't, most draft pundits have the No. 4 pick as his probable landing spot. The fifth pick is seen as Holliday's absolute floor. There's still a chance the Nationals take him No. 1, and even if he falls to No. 4, it's hard to imagine the Rockies passing on him, given their history with his father, Matt Holliday. The senior Holliday was drafted by Colorado in 1998 and spent the first six years of his career there.
But the Cardinals are obviously familiar with the Holliday family as well, and if Ethan Holliday is somehow still there at No. 5, they'll go for it. But that scenario is more a fever dream than a legitimate possibility.
(Top photo of Eli Willits: Sarah Phipps / The Oklahoman via Imagn Images)