Report finds maintaining nuclear weapons stockpile to cost 25% more than estimated

Yahoo

30-04-2025

A gallon of milk costs a dollar more than it did in March 2020. So does a pound of chicken, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
And the receipt for the nation's nuclear program is following suit.
An April report published by the Congressional Budget Office, which conducts nonpartisan analyses for Congress, found maintaining the nation's nuclear stockpile is likely to cost 25% more over the next 10 years than it estimated in 2023 — an increase of about $129 billion over the estimate for 2023 to 2032.
Call that sticker shock.
The office estimates over the next decade the country will spend $946 billion on modernizing silos, improving infrastructure at nuclear weapons laboratories and other projects associated with nation's nuclear program. Among the sites working to update the nation's nuclear arsenal is Los Alamos National Laboratory, one of two sites designated for production of plutonium pits — the hollow, bowling-bowl sized core of a nuclear weapon.
Developing and preparing the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile system is one of the main programs driving up costs, the report states. Missiles that make up the system will replace hundreds of Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles located in Wyoming, Montana and North Dakota that have been in service for half a century, a swap that's part of a nationwide nuclear stockpile modernization effort.
Proponents have argued it's essential to ensure the threat of nuclear weapons remains credible amid a changing geopolitical landscape. In a fact page about plutonium pits, LANL called the replacements a "precaution" to avoid potential changes to the capability of a nuclear weapon as plutonium ages.
"The world has changed since nuclear modernization efforts began," said Gen. Anthony J. Cotton at a November discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Our posture must align with today's reality, where nuclear weapons are foundational to adversaries' strategies."
But the price tag is ever rising.
"The Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program has encountered significant cost growth in recent years," the report states. "The full extent and timing of that growth remains uncertain, as the Department of Defense is currently restructuring the program."
In July, the Department of Defense estimated the program would cost 81%, or approximately $63 billion, more than the department expected five years ago. The department concluded, however, that despite the major cost increases the program should continue.
The system will include a piece of New Mexico. In October, the Department of Energy "diamond-stamped" the first plutonium pit produced by LANL as part of a recent push to update the nation's nuclear stockpile. That pit is destined for the W87-1 warhead, which will in turn become part of the Sentinel system.
Los Alamos Study Group executive director and anti-nuclear activist Greg Mello urged Congress and the White House to ditch the "troubled" program, anticipating further cost increases and challenges.
"The buzzards are circling," Mello said in a statement. "The coming year will bring more revelations about Sentinel and they won't be good. The White House and Congress should pull the plug on Sentinel now, however difficult that would be."
The Congressional Budget Office is expecting that $193 billion will be spent in the next 10 years at the nation's nuclear weapons laboratories.
Along with increased costs for intercontinental ballistic missiles, the Department of Defense is facing higher price tags for ballistic missile submarines and upgrades to communications and early warning systems. The Department of Energy is primarily looking at increased costs to revamp production facilities.
Aging infrastructure has been a concern at Los Alamos National Laboratory; in 2019, the lab received $5 billion to upgrade facilities over the next five years. At the time, about 40% of the facilities were built before 1970.
As the nuclear program grows in cost, however, Mello believes LANL could be facing a more competition for defense dollars.
"As CBO notes, most nuclear weapons costs are incurred by modernizing the arsenal and its production facilities, not by deploying and maintaining existing weapons," Mello said.
The Congressional Budget Office report comes as President Donald Trump's administration attempts to slash costs across the federal government, including everything from terminating leases on federal buildings to cutting staffing levels at several agencies. In February, Trump said the country "already [has] so many" nuclear weapons and signaled an interest in cutting the nation's defense budget in half as part of arms control negotiations with China and Russia.
Earlier this month, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced $5.1 billion in department contracts had been cut.
But Sunday, the House and Senate Armed Services Committees announced legislation developed "in close conjunction with the White House" that included a $150 billion boost to defense spending, including $1.5 billion in risk reduction for Sentinel and $540 million for "deferred maintenance and repair" needs for the National Nuclear Security Administration.