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Business News Wales
an hour ago
- Business News Wales
Strongest Rise in Welsh New Business Since March 2023
Welsh businesses saw a further rise in output during June, according to the latest Cymru Growth Tracker data from NatWest, but growth in activity slowed despite a sharper upturn in new sales. At 50.5 in June, the headline Wales Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region's manufacturing and service sectors – fell from 51.5 in May, to signal only a slight expansion in output at Welsh private sector firms. Meanwhile, the rate of increase in new orders accelerated to the sharpest in over two years. Despite more favourable demand conditions, firms were less confident in the outlook for output over the coming year and registered another strong fall in employment. On the price front, input costs and output charges increased at softer rates in June. Although still historically elevated, output prices rose at the weakest pace since October 2024. Sebastian Burnside, Chief Economist of NatWest Group, summarised the report's findings for Business News Wales: Jessica Shipman, Chair, NatWest Cymru Regional Board, said: 'Business conditions appear to be improving for Welsh firms, as new order growth accelerated to the fastest in over two years and companies raised their output levels in turn. That said, the rise in activity was only slight. At the same time, previous hikes to the Minimum Wage and National Insurance contributions continued to weigh on business decisions as employment contracted again and confidence in the outlook was dampened amid concerns regarding client spending, and efforts to control costs. 'Inflationary pressures eased further from the recent highs seen in April, meanwhile. In a bid to drive sales, selling prices rose at the weakest rate since last October, as firms noted prioritising competitiveness over protecting their margins. In fact, of the 12 monitored UK nations and areas, only Yorkshire & Humber recorded a slower uptick in charges.' Performance in relation to UK The rate of output growth was slower than the UK average. Anecdotal evidence suggested that stronger demand conditions supported the upturn, however. Private sector firms in Wales signalled a second successive monthly expansion in new orders during June. The pace of growth quickened notably to the steepest in over two years. Moreover, the rise in new sales was the second-fastest of the 12 monitored UK nations and regions (behind the East of England). As well as being below the long-run series average, the level of optimism was the second-weakest of the 12 monitored UK nations and areas, ahead of only the North East. Surveyed firms stated that customer uncertainty and reduced client spending weighed on positive sentiment. A higher cost to employ staff following hikes to the Minimum Wage and National Insurance contributions reportedly led to cost-cutting initiatives and a reduction in headcounts. Of the 12 monitored UK nations and areas, Welsh firms recorded one of the sharpest drops in employment. The pace of job shedding eased, however, to the slowest since last November. Despite a rise in new orders, firms were able to continue working through their backlogs during June. The rate of depletion was among the slowest in over a year, having softened from that seen in May. Nonetheless, the pace of decline was strong overall and quicker than the UK average. Panellists mentioned that greater prices for raw materials and higher transportation fees coincided with the further impact of hikes in wage bills and labour costs on balance sheets. That said, the pace of input price inflation eased to the slowest in 2025 to date and was weaker than the UK average. At the same time, the rate of increase in output charges softened as firms opted to remain competitive and drive new sales rather than protect margins. The pace of inflation was the least marked since October 2024. Moreover, of the 12 monitored UK nations and areas, only Yorkshire & Humber recorded a slower hike in output charges.
Business News Wales
an hour ago
- Business News Wales
New Rules Aim to Ensure Crypto Owners Pay the Right Amount of Tax
From January 2026, people who own crypto – like Bitcoin, Ethereum or Dogecoin – must give personal details to every crypto service provider they use to make sure they are paying the right tax. Those who don't comply risk a £300 fine from HMRC. Once data is received from service providers, HMRC will be able to identify those who haven't been correctly paying tax on their crypto profits. HMRC says this is estimated to raise up to £315 million by April 2030 in tax revenue – the same amount needed to fund more than 10,000 newly-qualified nurses for a year. It's part of a major drive by HMRC to tackle non-compliance including the small minority who are deliberately evading tax due on their profits from crypto. Service providers will begin collecting data on users' activities from January 2026. Any service provider that fails to report this information, or submits inaccurate or incomplete reports, could also be charged a penalty of up to £300 per user by HMRC. The new rules mean crypto service providers must collect and report: Your name, address, and date of birth Your tax residence Your National Insurance number or tax reference A summary of your crypto transactions James Murray MP, Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, said: 'By ensuring everyone pays their fair share, the new crypto reporting rules will make sure tax dodgers have nowhere to hide, helping raise the revenue needed to fund our nurses, police and other vital public services.' Jonathan Athow, HMRC's Director General for Customer Strategy and Tax Design, said: 'Importantly, this isn't a new tax – if you make a profit when you sell, swap or transfer your crypto, tax may already be due. 'These new reporting requirements will give us the information to help people get their tax affairs right. 'I urge all cryptoasset users to check the details you will need to give your provider. Taking action now and having this information to hand will help you avoid penalties in the future.' The new rules – known as the Cryptoasset Reporting Framework – will help HMRC identify those who need to pay tax on their crypto transactions. They will also bring the UK into line with the international standard developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), enabling tax authorities to share information across participating countries. Crypto users should already include any crypto gains or income in their Self Assessment tax returns. HMRC has introduced new dedicated sections to the capital gain pages to be completed from the 2024 to 2025 tax year. Capital Gains Tax may be due when selling or exchanging crypto, while Income Tax and National Insurance could apply to crypto received from employment, mining, staking or lending activities. Anyone unsure about their tax obligations can check if they need to pay tax when they receive or sell crypto on They can also tell HMRC about unpaid tax on crypto using the cryptoasset disclosure service.
The Herald Scotland
2 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Ian Blackford: SNP must offer Scots a bold economic plan
Mr Blackford warned that the dire state of the UK's public finances would have direct consequences for Holyrood, whose budget is heavily dependent on decisions taken at Westminster. Read more: 'For the SNP Government, whose budget is largely based on Barnett consequentials, it means an ongoing squeeze on real-terms spending,' he wrote. 'The 2026 election will largely focus on devolved responsibilities, but the capacity to deliver over the next Parliament will be constrained by the UK financial settlement.' Mr Blackford said the scale of the UK's fiscal challenge was stark. The tax burden continues to rise, with the UK Government's own forecasts suggesting the tax-to-GDP ratio will hit 37.7% by 2027–28 — the highest level seen in peacetime Britain. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said this could rise to 38% later in the decade. Yet despite the record tax take, the UK Government is still struggling to balance the books. Public sector net debt now stands at £2.87 trillion — around 96.4% of GDP — the highest May debt-to-GDP ratio in modern times. Servicing that debt costs more than £100 billion a year, or roughly 3.9% of GDP. All of this is adding to the pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who has committed to not borrowing to fund day-to-day public spending, and to get debt falling as a share of GDP by 2029–30. She has limited choices following last week's U-turn on the welfare bill, which wiped out a projected £5bn saving. Labour has insisted it will keep its election promises not to increase income tax, National Insurance or VAT, but Ms Reeves has reportedly told Cabinet colleagues further hike may now be necessary in the Autumn Budget. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Chancellor may ultimately need to find an additional £25bn to £30bn by 2028 to avoid imposing deep cuts to public spending. Mr Blackford said there little chance of Ms Reeves scrapping her fiscal rules, and borrowing more. 'The financial markets will punish the Chancellor if she tries to increase borrowing, and she knows this,' he wrote. 'Put simply, the financial markets will largely determine the fate of the Chancellor and our fiscal future.' The prospect of a new Chancellor who might change the borrowing rules has already spooked the markets. When Ms Reeves was seen crying in the Commons at Prime Minister's Questions — after Sir Keir Starmer refused to back her — the pound fell against the dollar and the euro, while gilt yields soared. Rachel Reeves wipes away a tear during PMQsMr Blackford, a former investment banker, said: 'International comparisons make clear that investors impose a risk premium on UK debt. The current 10-year UK Government gilt yield is 4.5%. In Germany, it is 2.6%. In Switzerland, a modest 0.4%. Our neighbour Ireland has a rate of 2.8%. 'We are paying a price for the perception of investors of a lack of financial competence. We make jokes about Liz Truss and her cataclysmic approach to financial management, but her predecessors and successors hardly earn an A-plus.' Mr Blackford said the result would be a period of sustained pressure on public services across the UK, including in Scotland. 'For the public, the catastrophic failure to deliver an economic policy that supports sustainable growth has meant declining living standards,' he wrote. 'The last Westminster Parliament was the first in the post-war period during which living standards fell. I would not bet on this Parliament delivering a different outcome.' He also warned of the UK's limited ability to cope with any future economic shocks. 'Heaven help us if we face another external shock, given UK PLC's balance sheet. I shudder to think how the UK could finance another Covid-style crisis.' However, the bleak picture, he said, presented the SNP with an opportunity. 'Politics ought to be about hope. The SNP can seize the opportunity to paint a landscape showing how things could be different in Scotland,' he wrote. 'I have previously argued for the establishment of an industrial council. It is much needed. Or, if one is not to be established, the SNP at the very least needs to set out how it will drive a step change in investment, jobs and growth. 'We have the opportunity to drive economic opportunity from our massive potential in green energy — not green energy in itself, but using that power to create a sustainable green industrial future, building on our strategic opportunity to create a competitive advantage from affordable green energy. 'Doing our bit for net zero while creating the circumstances for a sustainable increase in economic growth.' Ian Blackford called on the SNP to look at establishing an Industrial CouncilMr Blackford argued that Scotland's ability to achieve this economic renewal was inextricably linked to the case for independence. 'When we talk about independence, it is not about an abstract concept. It is about transforming life chances. More of the same within the UK — low growth and public services under pressure — can be broken. 'The SNP needs to spell out how it can change the landscape and unlock economic growth by harnessing our natural resources and, of course, our human capital. There is a better way. It is up to our leaders to chart it.' Read more: Currently, around one-third of Scotland's budget comes via the Barnett formula, meaning UK Government spending decisions directly influence Holyrood's funding envelope. Last month, Ms Reeves set out her spending plans for the next three years, with the Scottish Government due to see a £9.1bn increase in funding during that period. A breakdown of the spending, released yesterday by the UK Government, showed that included a £5.8bn rise in health spending. Education consequentials were worth £2.1bn, while justice spending added £451m, housing and local government £380m, and transport £807m. Scottish Secretary Ian Murray hailed the increase, saying: 'The UK Government's Plan for Change has delivered the largest real terms settlement for the Scottish Government since devolution began in 1999, and ensured a definitive end to austerity in Scotland with £9.1bn more for the Scottish Government until the end of the decade. 'That's £9.1bn over and above record real terms budgets. 'That's more money than ever before for the Scottish Government to invest in Scottish public services like our NHS, police, housing and schools. 'It is for the Scottish Government to determine how it spends this money. 'It is notable, however, that almost £6bn of additional funding has been generated by health spending, and over £2bn has been generated by spending on education. 'Many Scots will expect to see better outcomes in their schools and hospitals given this record funding.' However, Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison said the settlement still left Scotland short-changed. 'The UK Spending Review document sets out in black and white that our funding for day-to-day spending is set to grow by only 0.8% over the next three years, compared with 1.2% average growth for UK Government departments,' she said. 'This will short-change us by £1.1bn. 'What's more, we face an estimated £400m shortfall from the UK Government's failure to fully fund their employer National Insurance increase.'
