August-September rainfall likely to be ‘above normal' forecasts IMD, new initiative launched to provide real-time rainfall data for 7,200 blocks
Individually, Aug is expected to receive 'normal' rainfall whereas Sept may get 'above normal' rainfall, bringing the total quantitative rainfall to more than 106% of the long period average (LPA). The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during Aug-Sept, based on historical data from 1971 to 2020, is 422.8 mm.
'Many parts of northeast and adjoining areas of east India, some isolated regions of central India and south western parts of peninsular India may, however, get 'below normal' rainfall during Aug-Sept,' said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra while referring to the regional exceptions.
Releasing the outlook for rainfall during the second half of the southwest (summer) monsoon, Mohapatra also announced the launching of a new initiative, block-wise rainfall monitoring scheme (BRMS), that will provide 'real-time rainfall data' for 7,200 administrative blocks across the country.
The new scheme will increase the spatial resolution of the forecast by tenfold, greatly enhancing the granularity and usefulness of rainfall data.
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Earlier, only district-wise data was available.
The key applications of BRMS include agricultural planning, disaster management, water resource management, model validation, policy making and more specific inputs for schemes like crop insurance scheme and MGNREGA.
India received 'above normal' rainfall during the first half of the monsoon season (June-July). So far, the country recorded 6% more than normal cumulative rainfall during June 1 to July 31 period with central India recording the highest around 23% more than normal rainfall followed by northwest India at 21% above normal rainfall.
On the other hand, east & northeast India recorded 22% deficit rainfall in the first two months of monsoon. The south peninsula also recorded a deficit of 2% during the period. Rainfall over east & northeast India was, in fact, seventh lowest since 1901 and fourth lowest since 2001.
'In northeast India, this is the fifth consecutive year of 'below normal' rainfall. Over the last 30 years, a declining trend in rainfall activity has been observed in the northeastern states,' said Mohapatra.
Data show that 76 weather stations reported 'extremely heavy' rainfall events and 624 stations reported 'very heavy' rainfall events in July (most active month of the monsoon season) this year compared to 193 and 1,030 stations, respectively, in 2024.
July this year has not seen widespread flooding in many parts like what the country witnessed last year. Except Himachal Pradesh that faced flash floods and landslides, no other states witnessed big rain-linked disasters in July.
Good rainfall, so far, in most parts of the country also supported the ongoing Kharif (summer crops) sowing operations quite well, increasing the acreage by 4% till July 28 compared to the corresponding period last year.
As far as temperature is concerned, the IMD said the monthly average maximum (day) temperatures are expected to remain "normal to below normal" in many regions in August.
On the other hand, the monthly average minimum (night) temperatures are expected to be "normal to above normal" over most parts of the country in the month. "However, below normal minimum temperatures are likely over some parts of northwest India," it said.
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