MLB Home Run Derby predictions: Picks, odds, favorites for Monday's contest

USA Today

a day ago

The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby, one of baseball's marquee events and an annual appetizer ahead of the All-Star Game, is here again and this year the intriguing field of participants includes the league's current home run leader, one of the youngest sluggers in the sport and the player with the hardest hit homer of the season.
The format, according to MLB, once again will be a test of power and endurance with three rounds of hitting for the two players that make it to the final. Each batter in the first round hits for up to three minutes or up to 40 balls, whichever comes first. At the end of the timed round, each hitter will receive a minimum of three bonus outs, and a fourth bonus out may be achieved by hitting a home run of at least 425 feet during the bonus swings.
The top four home run totals will advance to a seeded and bracketed semifinal matchup (3 vs. 2; 4 vs. 1) in which each hitter will bat for up to two minutes or up to 27 balls. The two semifinal winners will meet in the final round, which will also last for up to two minutes or up to 27 balls. The same bonus rules will apply for all three rounds and hitters will also be given one time out per round.
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, who has an MLB-best 38 home runs through 96 games heading into the All-Star break, is the favorite to win for the first time. But Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz and Washington Nationals outfielder James Wood are top contenders as well. Matt Olson recently replaced Braves teammate Ronald Acuna Jr. in this year's home run derby.
Here's a look at the complete odds for the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby, as well as experts' predictions and picks for Monday night's competition in Atlanta:
When is 2025 MLB Home Run Derby: Start time, date
The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby is scheduled to take place on Monday, July 14 at Truist Park in Atlanta. The competition is slated to begin at 8 p.m. ET.
MLB Home Run Derby 2025 odds: Favorites, best bets
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, who leads the majors in homers with 38 this season, is the favorite to win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby.
BetMGM odds for Home Run Derby winner as of Monday, July 14 at 11 a.m. ET
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2025 Home Run Derby picks, predictions
"Even though Cal Raleigh is the chalk, he is still a strong play. The current MLB home run leader hit one in March (5 games), nine in April (25 games), 12 in May (27 games) and 11 in June (26 games). He didn't slow down in July, hitting five in just 11 games. This is Raleigh's first time visiting Truist Park since May 2023, and he didn't have any homers in his 4 at-bats across 2 games. However, things have changed dramatically, as Raleigh has been a beast lately."
"The 22-year-old has put up MVP-level numbers, ranking among MLB's top 10 by WAR and showing prodigious, downright terrifying all-fields power. ... This is the biggest stage Wood has been on so far in his young career."
Only two of ESPN's five MLB experts had the same pick to win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby, with Braves first baseman Matt Olson receiving two votes. Cal Raleigh, James Wood and ONeil Cruz were also predicted winners.
"He's second in the field in slugging percentage this season at .574, with Raleigh being the only participant sporting a higher mark. He has already hit 21 home runs in 78 games this season, and he has the athleticism and endurance that Raleigh may lack."
Watch the Home Run Derby with Fubo
How to watch 2025 Home Run Derby: TV channel, live streaming
The 2025 Home Run Derby will be broadcast live on ESPN and ESPN2, with live streaming available via the WatchESPN app and Fubo beginning at 8 p.m. ET