France: When defense imperatives meet budgetary realities
As befits the only European nuclear power alongside the United Kingdom, France intends to play its part in this rearmament. Macron highlighted the leadership Paris has shown in recent initiatives to confront the Russian threat, notably alongside London, including in the area of nuclear deterrence. He also strongly emphasized the need for a European dimension to this essential defense effort, arguing for a European pillar within NATO. Facing "an American ally signaling its disengagement," as he acknowledged, "we Europeans now have to ensure our security on our own."
Yet, if "to be free, you must be feared," Macron also affirmed that "to be feared, you must be powerful." And power comes at a cost. This is the fundamental limitation of the exercise Macron has pursued since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. His assessment of geostrategic threats is entirely accurate, and his determination to organize France's defense within a European framework is unquestionable. However, France's excessive debt is a clear obstacle to the ambitions he has laid out.
Fuse position
Even with the significant increase Macron announced Sunday, which will raise the military budget to €64 billion by 2027, France remains well short of the €100 billion figure that Lecornu described in March as the "ideal fighting weight" for meeting new challenges by 2030.
For some, the additional €6.5 billion announced for the next two years is not enough. For others, it represents a heavy burden. Prime Minister François Bayrou must take this into account as he finalizes the adjustment plan, which he will present to the press on Tuesday, aiming to reduce the public deficit from 5.8% of gross domestic product this year to 4.6% by 2026. To prevent the appearance of civilian spending sacrificed in favor of defense, the French presidency and prime minister's office jointly stated that the increases in military spending will be funded by "more activity and more production."
In addition to predictable cuts in state spending, social security and local government budgets, Bayrou's announcements are expected to include new reforms affecting unemployment insurance and the labor market, with no guarantee they will be any better received than previous budget-saving measures. Every adjustment made in the name of "working more" has been vigorously contested so far.
In his address on March 5, Macron warned that facing the world's brutality demanded "reforms" and "courage." Despite growing public awareness, his warning has had little effect on the country's various political forces so far. Cast in the uncomfortable position of a fuse, Bayrou will learn after his announcements on Tuesday whether elected officials have changed their stance, or whether a gap remains between what is happening on the international stage and what is unfolding on the domestic scene.
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