How Barack Obama Planned to Destroy North Korea's Weapons of Mass Destruction
What analysts haven't pointed out is that serious planning for a first strike against North Korea's arsenal was initiated by then-President Barack Obama almost five years before Trump's 'fire and fury' threats, and those plans came up short.
Obama and Trump met for the first – and only – time days after the Republican candidate had won the presidential election. Obama had decided to personally take on the task of making sure an uninformed Trump, who didn't even know there were two Koreas, understood that Pyongyang's nuclear weapons would soon be able to devastate American cities.
Obama warned Trump that Kim Jong Un was about to cross a technological Rubicon. Obama often told his advisors that a future president might have to attack North Korea before it launched its weapons. While Obama informed Trump that he had ordered the Pentagon to figure out how to do that, their plan still fell short of achieving the objective.
Obama's warning may have been too successful. It certainly left an impression on the president-to-be. An astounded Trump repeatedly asked his advisers how past presidents could have left him with this mess. He would also ask everyone, including the musician Kid Rock, what to do.
Trump would later claim in public that Obama was about to start a war with North Korea, but all Obama was trying to do was to arm future presidents with a plan to prevent the destruction of American cities.
Trump also claimed that Obama has been 'begging for a meeting' with Kim Jong Un. Susan Rice, Obama's national security adviser, called Trump's accusation 'horseshit,' but like many of Donald Trump's pronouncements, there was a grain of truth in what he said.
The North Korean arsenal grew to alarming proportions during Obama's two terms in office. In 2009, intelligence estimates predicted the threat of a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was still a decade off. But in January 2011, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates made headlines when he announced that North Korea could attack U.S. cities in five to ten years.
It turned out Pyongyang's long-range missile program had been hiding in plain sight. Suspicious purchases of 'large off-road vehicles,' perfect for transporting a new mobile ICBM, were announced on a Chinese company's website starting in October 2010. Deliveries started 8 months later.
In April 2012, those transporters appeared carrying a new missile dubbed the KN-08 in a massive Pyongyang parade celebrating Kim Il Sung's birth. The missile was a potential game-changer for the Pentagon, since a stationary missile could be destroyed before launch. Mobile missiles were likely to survive an attack. Some experts argued the paraded missiles were only mockups and a hoax. The Pentagon, however, believed they were intended to help build a new weapon.
The KN-08 confirmed the worst fears of a handful of Defense Department officials. James 'Jim' Miller, the third ranking civilian official at the Pentagon, had initially supported the majority view that the real North Korea threat was short-range missiles aimed at U.S. troops and allies – South Korea and Japan – in Northeast Asia. However, the more Miller and an aide, Tom Ehrhard, a former Air Force officer who didn't engage in wishful thinking, talked to intelligence analysts, the more they realized the ICBM danger was real.
The two were joined by four-star Admiral James 'Sandy' Winnefeld, Jr., then the newly appointed vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Tasked to protect the continental United States from attack in his last job, Winnefeld's wife had complained that Pyongyang ruined their holidays by launching rockets. He assured her he would take care of the problem. The admiral feared that North Korea would eventually be able to obliterate cities on the United States' West Coast.
The April 2012 parade also set off alarm bells in the White House. Obama had been concerned about the North Korean threat. His daily brief, featuring the KN-08's appearance, concluded that the missile wouldn't be operational until it was successfully tested. But Obama sent an unequivocal message to the Pentagon. 'I have to defend this country. I want you to take this seriously,' a senior military officer recalled the president as saying.
A successful North Korean satellite launch in December using a large rocket was a 'big wake up call,' according to a Pentagon official. Then, Pyongyang's nuclear detonation in February 2013, which it claimed helped develop nuclear warheads small enough to place on top of a rocket, proved to be the last straw.
Miller and Winnefeld won their fight. In March, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel announced a $1 billion initiative to buy 14 more Ground Based Interceptors, or GBIs, to add to the existing stockpile. They would protect the United States from Pyongyang's 'irresponsible and reckless provocations.'
However, complacency soon set in again. The Pentagon's attitude was, 'We've got it,' according to one Defense Department official, even though it became clear that a modest upgrade in U.S. missile defenses wouldn't be able to cope with more than a handful of KN-08s. Officials reasoned, 'If they launch a nuclear weapon at San Francisco, we will nuke them.'
That view wasn't shared by everyone. A policy review ordered by Obama confirmed that Hagel's GBI upgrade could easily be overwhelmed by a growing missile arsenal. The president ordered the Pentagon to consider the new North Korean ICBM operational even if it hadn't been tested and to develop a plan to take 'those missiles out' before they could be launched, according to a senior U.S. military officer. Obama didn't want the military to 'bring him another rock.'
The fight to find a solution to the growing North Korean threat was joined by a new important ally. Robert 'Bob' Work, a Marine veteran who was appointed deputy secretary of defense, quickly focused on the danger, with the aid of Ehrhard, who had remained behind when Miller left the Pentagon.
History had proved that destroying mobile missiles is hard. The Allies only managed to stop one German V-1 rocket during World War II. None was destroyed during the 1991 'Great SCUD hunt' for Saddam Hussein's mobile rockets.
However, technology had advanced. Missiles could be tracked more precisely, data could be transmitted more quickly, and more accurate weapons could destroy the missiles before they moved. Moreover, exotic 'left of launch' technologies, such as cyberstrikes against computers that controlled the weapons, might destroy or disable missiles before they left the ground.
Both Work and Winnefeld had their own expert groups examining this new toolkit. While much of the Pentagon was fixated on the exotic to the exclusion of the pragmatic, those technologies were only '1 percent of the answer,' according to a senior Pentagon official. There was no substitute for old-fashioned detective work, tracking and blowing up North Korea's missiles.
Ehrhard had experienced that drudgery as a young Air Force captain assigned the job of figuring out how to destroy mobile Russian missiles. The U.S. intelligence community had been monitoring Pyongyang's weapons. but there was still much more work that remained to be done, tracking their daily movements and operations.
The Pentagon missed White House deadlines twice to come up with an ICBM-busting plan. When it did deliver, the proposals were bounced back. 'It's not good enough, I want another version,' Rice commented after seeing the first report. 'Is that enough? What else can you do?' White House officials asked during briefings.
In May 2015, the Joint Chiefs of Staff organized a half-day long secret war game to review how much progress had been made. The answers fell far short of what Obama wanted. According to one White House aide, the Pentagon's bottom line – 'We are just not sure we can catch everything' – was disappointing.
Moreover, North Korea's response to a strike could devastate South Korea and Japan. Past presidents going back to Richard Nixon, who considered attacking the North after it shot down an American spy plane in 1969, had faced the same dilemma. Seoul, a city with millions of inhabitants, is only 22 kilometers from the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).
Still, Obama reminded his advisers that the United States had found Osama Bin Laden. Why couldn't it find North Korea's mobile missiles? 'You've got to be working harder,' an aide heard him argue.
After Pyongyang's hydrogen bomb test in September 2016, Obama asked again if it was possible to launch a preemptive strike supported by cyber operations.
It's unlikely that the Obama administration ever succeeded in formulating a plan for an attack on North Korea. One administration official recalled that on a scale of one to ten, it rated a five on the priority list. By the end of Obama's administration, North Korea was well on the way to building a nuclear arsenal that could withstand a U.S. first strike.
Eight years later, Trump's options for such a strike would be even more constrained.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Asahi Shimbun
2 hours ago
- Asahi Shimbun
INTERVIEW/ Kaoru Hasuike: In his new book, abductee comes clean on life in North Korea
Kaoru Hasuike in Kashiwazaki, Niigata Prefecture, in May. He is one of the five Japanese citizens that North Korea released after abducting them in 1978. (Ryuichi Kitano) Kaoru Hasuike is finally fully opening up about his long ordeal after being abducted by North Korean agents in 1978, including a plan to train Japanese abductees as secret operatives. Hasuike returned home to Japan in 2002, around a quarter-century after he was snatched from his native city in Niigata Prefecture facing the Japan Sea. Since his return, he has published several books on his experiences in North Korea, but had rarely touched on sensitive topics. His most recent book, 'Nihonjin Rachi' (The abductions of Japanese citizens), published in May by Iwanami Shoten, Publishers, differs from his other books, offering detailed descriptions of the North Korean organization running covert operations as well as the status of Japanese victims in the reclusive country. In an interview with The Asahi Shimbun in May, Hasuike, 67, said he felt compelled to speak up publicly to break the long impasse, seeing the little progress made toward resolving the issue over the past 23 years. The whereabouts of at least 12 other abductees identified by the Japanese government have yet to be ascertained. Hasuike is keenly aware that time is running out as parents of the abductees who had waged a tireless campaign to get their loved ones returned have passed away in succession in recent years. He hopes that his book and sharing the complete story publicly will help mobilize public support for the long-overdue resolution of the prickly issue. Excerpts from the interview follow. *** Question: You were abducted by North Korean agents on July 31, 1978, when you were on a date with your future wife, Yukiko Okudo, on the beach in Kashiwazaki, Niigata Prefecture. In your new book, you recount your life in North Korea in great detail. Hasuike: The Workers' Party of Korea's External Investigations and Intelligence Department is the culprit behind the abductions scheme. Shortly after we were taken to North Korea, Kang Hae Ryong, a close aide to Kim Jong Il and the deputy head of the department, appeared before us. Kang said, 'Our nation is a great nation. You can become an outstanding revolutionary by learning various things' from North Korea. Choe Sun Chol, who was placed on the international wanted list by Japanese police as the perpetrator of the abductions, said, 'Why don't you go back to Japan and do a big thing after attaining a high position in this country? You can learn in North Korea how to do that.' Q: What do a 'great revolutionary' and a 'big thing' mean? A: I presume that they intended to train the abductees to be secret agents. We were made to study the Korean language first. I was paired with Yasushi Chimura, who is now 70 and who was abducted around the same time as I was. We underwent ideological education in which we were demanded to pledge loyalty to North Korea and instilled in us a sense of guilt over Japan's colonization of the Korean Peninsula. On special occasions like the birthdays of Kim Il Sung, who is revered as the founding father of North Korea, and of his son, Jong Il, we had to swear an oath that we 'will sacrifice our lives to fight for the great leader.' The Japanese abductees, grouped into pairs, lived together at a facility in 'the invitation-only zone.' My wife was paired off with Rumiko Masumoto. Megumi Yokota was initially with Hitomi Soga and later with Yaeko Taguchi. I believe that North Korea abducted many young women partly because they had planned to use them as future spies. Q: But the abductees were not turned into operatives, after all. A: We were anxious when we were told we were going to attend what is King Jong Il Political Military University today, an institution for training operatives. But after months, no order came for us to enroll in the university. The plan was eventually aborted. After returning to Japan, I learned about a string of incidents that women abducted from Macao or Lebanon attempted to flee in around 1978 and 1979 when they were sent overseas as North Korea's operatives. These cases, I suspect today, led the North Korean authorities to end the deployment of abductees for covert operations because of the risks involved. Q: Wasn't there a danger that abductees would have been 'disposed' of if they could not serve as operatives? A: It did not happen and the reason for that, I speculate, is that the abductions were carried out at the behest of Jong Il. The organization involved in it would have lost face if its project had been assessed as futile. So, North Korean officials came up with a new assignment for us to justify the abductions, which was to teach Japanese to train North Korean spies. Q: You elaborated on your students in your latest book, including their names and personal characteristics. A: I taught Japanese to 12 individuals from late 1979 to 1989. I had had no prior experience in teaching, but officials demanded an impossible task such as teaching them Japanese so that they could pass as Japanese citizens. I had no choice but to obey. Most of the individuals I taught did not have a strong interest in learning Japanese or lacked language skills. Ten of the 12 were subsequently removed from the front lines of the operations before they became fully involved in clandestine activities. But I was relieved. I had been hoping that my students would play no part in evil operations. Q: Ending the program to teach Japanese was prompted by the 1987 bombing of a Korean Air flight by two North Korean agents, who disguised themselves as Japanese citizens with forged Japanese passports. A: One of the suspects, Kim Hyon Hui, told South Korea's investigators that a Japanese woman named Lee Un Hae, who was abducted by North Korea, tutored her in Japanese. I gathered that Kim was talking about Taguchi, whose Korean name was Ko Hye Oku. Q: Later, you and other Japanese abductees were tasked with translating Japanese newspapers and broadcasts into Korean. A: Yes. It was through a Japanese newspaper article that I learned about the establishment of the Association of Families of Victims Kidnapped by North Korea by Japanese abductees' relatives. Prior to Deputy Prime Minister Shin Kanemaru's visit to Pyongyang in 1990, we were ordered to translate reference materials about Takeda Shingen, a feudal warlord from the 16th century, whom the politician held in great respect. In the summer of 2000, the deputy head of the External Investigations and Intelligence Department instructed me to memorize a fabricated story about how I wound up in North Korea. It was, 'We went out to sea and got lost, but we were rescued by a North Korean vessel.' But after Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's 2002 visit to North Korea was finalized, a North Korean senior official said that I no longer needed to stick to that fictional account. In a sweeping reversal of Pyongyang's official stance, Jong Il admitted North Korea's abductions of Japanese citizens for the first time and apologized during the Sept. 17 summit with Koizumi. Q: What facilitated the change in policy? A: The primary factor behind the shift must be a Japanese woman's testimony in a trial in Tokyo in March 2002. The woman, who was formerly married to a member of a group of perpetrators who defected to North Korea by hijacking a Japan Airlines plane in 1970, testified about her involvement in the abduction of Arimoto in Europe in 1983. The North Korean authorities had vehemently denied the allegation of abducting Japanese as a 'hoax' over the years. That is why I was stunned when Pyongyang did not protest and made an announcement that indirectly admitted to the abductions. North Korea apparently concluded that it had no other option but to come clean so as not to derail diplomatic talks with Japan. Q: Since you, your wife and three other abductees returned 23 years ago, you have privately shared with Japanese government officials and relatives of the victims what you had witnessed and heard about the abductees. But you have chosen not to share this with the public. In an Asahi interview three years ago, you also refused to discuss the issue, citing 'concerns about the safety of the victims and implications for bilateral talks.' A: I knew that I must address the subject publicly someday. Arimoto's father, Akihiro, passed away in February. That makes Sakie, mother of Yokota, the only living parent of abductees identified by the Japanese government as victims. There is nothing I should hold back today as time is running out. I want to appeal to the Japanese public by sharing my and others victims' accounts with hopes of preventing North Korea from repeating the claim that 'the abductions issue has been resolved.' Q: What do you want to emphasize the most? A: Pyongyang's claim that Yokota, Taguchi and six other Japanese are dead is utterly unacceptable, given the absence of evidence and contradictions in its explanations. Some argue that the two countries can enter into negotiations after first normalizing their relations. But even if Tokyo proceeds with normalizing bilateral ties by shelving the abductees issue, Pyongyang would stick to its stance that the issue has been resolved. I fear that such a development could end up effectively abandoning the remaining abductees.
Japan Today
3 hours ago
- Japan Today
El Salvador to send detained Venezuelans home in swap for Americans, sources say
FILE PHOTO: Family members of Venezuelan migrants, who the U.S. alleged were members of the Tren de Aragua gang and sent to the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) prison in El Salvador, hold signs and pictures of their loved ones, during a protest outside the United Nations building, in Caracas, Venezuela April 22, 2025. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo By Aram Roston and Ted Hesson El Salvador's government will send detained Venezuelans home in exchange for Americans held in Venezuela, two U.S. government officials told Reuters on Friday, as Venezuela announced the return of seven migrant children who had been separated from their families. One of the officials said El Salvador would send 238 Venezuelans held in its maximum security CECOT prison to Caracas and that the Venezuelan government would release five U.S. citizens and five U.S. permanent residents to American custody. The second official confirmed the exchange was taking place and said the figures appeared to be close to what was expected. Some family members of migrants held at CECOT said they received calls from the Venezuelan government to come to Caracas. Venezuela's Communications Ministry and El Salvador's presidency did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the possible exchange. Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and First Lady Cilia Flores said seven migrant children who had been separated from their families and kept in U.S. care had been sent home on a deportation flight that brought more than 200 migrants from Texas to Maiquetia airport near Caracas. Cabello said the children had been "rescued" and cheered their return, after saying earlier there were 32 migrant children in the U.S. who had been separated from their families. There would be "more movement" later in the afternoon and other arrivals, Cabello added, without providing more details. The U.S. State Department declined to comment. The White House and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The Venezuelans were sent to El Salvador in March after President Donald Trump invoked the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to swiftly deport alleged members of the Tren de Aragua gang without going through normal immigration procedures. Family members of many of the Venezuelans and their lawyers deny they had gang ties, and say they were not given a chance to contest the Trump administration's allegations in court. Venezuela's government has always decried the CECOT detention of its citizens as a violation of human rights and international law. But the government's critics say the country holds activists and opposition figures in similar conditions in Venezuela. The return of Americans held in Venezuela is a priority, Richard Grenell, a Trump envoy, has said. Grenell visited Caracas in January, returning with six Americans who had been held in Venezuela, and in May flew back to the U.S. from the Caribbean island of Antigua with Joseph St. Clair, who had also been detained in Venezuela. © Thomson Reuters 2025.
Japan Today
3 hours ago
- Japan Today
U.S. Treasury chief sure of 'good' tariff deal with Japan: Ishiba
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, center, shakes hands with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent before their meeting at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Friday. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Friday quoted U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as saying he believes the two countries can reach a "good" deal in the ongoing tariff negotiations. Bessent's comment came after Ishiba asked him to "vigorously" advance the talks at the ministerial level with Japan's negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, according to the prime minister, who spoke to reporters after his meeting with U.S. officials at his office in Tokyo. The roughly 30-minute meeting took place amid stalled bilateral negotiations, with the Aug 1 deadline for U.S. President Donald Trump's so-called country-specific reciprocal tariffs fast approaching. "Secretary Bessent said there will definitely be a good agreement," Ishiba said, adding they did not discuss the Trump administration's plan to impose a 25 percent tariff on goods from Japan. Ishiba also expressed his willingness to hold direct talks with Trump if necessary to defend Japan's national interests, although he said no specific date has been set. Bessent, the U.S. point man on tariff talks, is in Japan to lead a presidential delegation for the World Exposition in Osaka and attend his country's "national day" event on Saturday. Following the meeting, Bessent thanked Ishiba and Akazawa for "their warm welcome" to Japan in a post on X. "A good deal is more important than a rushed deal, and a mutually beneficial trade agreement between the United States and Japan remains within the realm of possibility," Bessent said, adding that he looks forward to continuing formal talks between the two countries in the future. Hours later, Akazawa, Japan's minister for economic revitalization, reacted to Bessent's view on the social platform, writing in English, "I fully agree with get it done." Bessent's first visit to Japan since Trump returned to the White House in January came as the key U.S. ally entered the final days of campaigning for Sunday's House of Councillors election. Ishiba, who leads the Liberal Democratic Party, has ruled out rushing a deal at the expense of national interests. Akazawa, who has held multiple rounds of negotiations with Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, is scheduled to host the U.S. delegation at the expo on Saturday. Earlier this week, Trump suggested that reaching an agreement with Japan before the Aug. 1 deadline would be difficult. Among the tariff measures already implemented by Trump, a 25 percent levy on U.S.-bound cars is seen as a heavy blow to Japan's economy, in which the auto sector is a major driver of growth. The auto duty is among the sticking points in the bilateral negotiations. The United States has also imposed higher tariffs on steel, aluminum and auto parts, along with a baseline 10 percent rate as part of country-specific tariffs. Trump's tariff measures have complicated an otherwise strong alliance with Japan. Ishiba told the U.S. delegation that bilateral cooperation is necessary, as the security of Asia, the Middle East and Ukraine is "intertwined." He said economic security is an area where the longtime allies can work more closely together. As Trump has been urging NATO nations to ramp up their defense spending, concerns have grown in Japan that he may also pressure Tokyo to shoulder more of the cost of its defense. "I said we will take the initiative and proactively strengthen our defense capabilities for the peace and security of our country," Ishiba said. © KYODO
