Threat of Iranian-Israeli escalation - World - Al-Ahram Weekly

Al-Ahram Weekly

27-02-2025

Iran is aiming its missiles at Israel, and the US and Israel are aiming their planes and bombs at Iran, raising the risk of significant escalation
Last Friday, a high-ranking officer in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Major-General Ebrahim Jabbari, gave a speech during a training exercise in Birjand in Iran. He said that 'Operation True Promise 3 will be carried out at the right time, with precision, and on a scale sufficient to destroy Israel and raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground.'
Two days later, IRGC Deputy Chief Commander Ali Fadavi, Deputy Al-Quds Force Commander Mohamed Jalal Maab, and Deputy Iranian Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi attended the funeral of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah at the Camille Chamoun Stadium in Beirut in Lebanon.
The world's media were filming this event when suddenly a formation of four Israeli F-15 Raam and F-35 Adir aircraft penetrated Lebanese airspace, the same aircraft that had been responsible for Nasrallah's assassination last year. The planes flew at low altitude and medium speed over the funeral, allowing Iranian officials to see them clearly and constituting a strong message from the Israeli side.
Israeli Defence Minister Katz said that 'Israeli Air Force jets flying over Beirut during Hassan Nasrallah's funeral are sending a clear message: those who threaten and attack Israel will meet the same fate.'
'You focus on funerals. We focus on victories,' he added.
In fact, the Israeli message is not new for the Iranian side, because the Israeli Air Force attacked Iran directly in April last year. A second attack in October was larger and included the destruction of most of the country's long-range air defences capable of securing Iranian airspace from afar.
Some 20 heavy mixers of rocket fuel, each costing $2 million, according to Israeli estimates, were destroyed, and this will hinder the production of missiles by Iran for at least two years.
However, the attacks did not deter the Iranian side, which is trying to rearm in a way that will restore its damaged image among its supporters and defeated militias in the Middle East.
According to the UK newspaper the Financial Times, citing intelligence from security officials in two Western countries, 'the Iranian-flagged ships the Golbon and the Jairan are expected to carry more than 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate, which is used to make ammonium perchlorate, the main ingredient for solid propellant for missiles.'
'The sodium perchlorate could produce 960 tons of ammonium perchlorate, which makes up 70 per cent of the propellant for solid-fuel missiles. That amount of ammonium perchlorate could produce 1,300 tons of propellant, enough to fuel 260 mid-range Iranian missiles such as the Kheibar Shekan or Haj Qassem,' the newspaper added.
Some 250 missiles are hardly comparable to the number used in Iran's True Promise 2 Operation, which was shocking to Israel at the time. These missiles exceed the speed of sound by more than five times when attacked, and their manoeuverability can challenge air defences.
Israel was forced to call in the US Air Defence battery THAAD, which also proved effective in repelling Houthi hypersonic ballistic missiles.
Nevertheless, even with the THAAD system, any future Israeli defence operation against an expanded Iranian missile attack will be difficult and expensive. Only the US THAAD system and the Israeli Arrow system are assigned to lead interception operations for this category of Iranian missiles.
They are designed to be inexpensive and are used by the Iranians for successive attacks using various models, including older versions to distract air defences. The most effective and heavier missiles are deployed for the actual attack after the distracting missiles have been fired.
This tactic of depleting the stockpile of Israeli Air Defence missiles at an accelerated rate will result in serious material losses. It may prompt the Israeli Air Force to carry out a blitzkrieg to destroy the Iranian nuclear programme in cooperation with the US, which supports the Israeli government in all its current actions.
This is what the Iranian authorities fear.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi said in an interview with Iraq's Al-Ahed news website last Saturday that 'Tehran is pursuing a very clear policy and strategy that bans the development of nuclear weapons,' adding that the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has forbidden the production of such arms.
'The threats from the US and the Zionist regime are nothing new, but they are aware of Iran's real power,' Ravanchi said.
The statements came two days after the US sent two B-52 bombers to the region on two flights in two consecutive days for the first time. US CENTCOM Commander Michael Erik Kurilla said that the 'Bomber Task Force missions demonstrate US power projection capability, commitment to regional security, and ability to respond to any state or non-state actor seeking to broaden or escalate conflict in the CENTCOM region.'
The B-52s are strategic bombers that can carry GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, or MOPs, massive 30,000 pound bombs that can destroy deeply buried bunkers up to 200 feet below the surface before exploding.
These bombers carrying out two missions in just two hours show the efficiency and high combat readiness of the aircraft and their crews. There are also squadrons of US fighters, such as the F-15 and F-16, that can accompany and protect them while they are carrying out their supposed offensive missions.
The latter can neutralise air defences and conduct concentrated attacks deep inside Iranian or its militias' defences. This capability was demonstrated when an American F-16 effectively evaded Houthi surface-to-air missiles in Yemen earlier this week.
If the Iranians are aiming their missiles at Israel, US and Israeli planes and bombers are also aimed at them. The question will be who will fire the first shot. If the Iranians do, they will inevitably be attacked in turn. The current calm in Gaza and Lebanon, even if thanks to a fragile ceasefire, could push the Israelis to attack Iran in a similar way to their attack on Hizbullah, aiming to neutralise its arsenal of weapons and depriving it of the opportunity to retaliate.
According to the US network CNN, 'US intelligence agencies recently warned both the Biden and Trump administrations that Israel will likely attempt to strike facilities key to Iran's nuclear programme this year.'
At least one US intelligence report produced by the Pentagon in recent weeks suggests Israel's intention is to destroy both Iran's nuclear facilities as well as its ballistic missile capability and that Israel's ultimate goal remains taking down the Iranian regime, two sources familiar with the intelligence said.
If Iran carries out its True Promise 3 Operation, it threatens to cause fall out across the Middle East. The same would be the case if the Israeli government is able to convince the US to allow and participate in its attack on Iran.
Such actions could prompt Iranian militias, such as the Houthis and Iraqi groups, to carry out attacks against US forces in the region. This would require US intervention to protect its bases.
The only way to avoid this escalation is if all the parties deal rationally and realistically with the current crisis and find diplomatic solutions to ensure stability in the region.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 27 February, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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