logo
Varcoe: Oil prices 'to spike higher' as conflict in Middle East casts shadow over G7 energy security talks

Varcoe: Oil prices 'to spike higher' as conflict in Middle East casts shadow over G7 energy security talks

Calgary Herald16-06-2025
Article content
Energy markets will also be closely watching to see any signs of potential disruption to Iranian oil supplies, as the country exports about 1.5 million barrels per day.
Article content
'Until you really get time to look at the end game here, prices are likely to rise. I don't see it going above $100, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely,' Robert Johnston, senior director of research at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, said Sunday.
Article content
'The G7 was going to be more focused on Russia, and the U.S. trade agenda and other priorities. They will have to deal with the oil side now.'
Article content
Analysts say events will make the G7 countries look more intently at how to ensure there's ample access to energy if something disrupts the flow of oil or LNG exports from the countries in the Middle East.
Article content
Article content
'Even after the Russian invasion, we have not taken energy security seriously — as seriously as we need to,' said Richard Masson, an executive fellow with the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy.
Article content
'It's just one more indication that the world is a dangerous place and energy security matters.'
Article content
Article content
Even if Israel and Iran end hostilities within a few weeks, Tehran is unlikely to be a 'reliable supplier of oil to the world for a long time' and it may be difficult for oil shipping firms to obtain insurance to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz, said Masson, a former vice-president of risk management for Nexen Energy.
Article content
Heading into the summit, U.S. President Donald Trump frequently called on his domestic oil and gas industry to 'drill, baby, drill' and promoted the idea of energy dominance.
Article content
However, a U.S. EIA report last week — issued before the latest conflict — projected American oil production will dip slightly next year from record levels of 13.5 million bpd, due to expectations of excess supply and weakening prices.
Article content
Article content
The tricky part for the G7 will be to find common ground between the group on what energy security is and how to best reach it, because the idea 'means different things to different people,' said Robert Johnston, incoming director of energy and natural resources at the U of C's School of Public Policy.
Article content
'Can Carney put together a common view between the U.S., which sort of sees more supply growth as the answer to the energy security question, versus the Europeans, and to some extent, Canada and Japan, that want supply growth, but also more decarbonization?' he said.
Article content
And the biggest potential risk the markets will look for in the coming days is a possible attack on tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, damage to Iranian oil-exporting infrastructure, or an attack of onshore oil facilities, such as refining and petrochemical infrastructure in the region, Johnston added.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Australia to reduce U.S. beef import restrictions denounced by Trump as ban
Australia to reduce U.S. beef import restrictions denounced by Trump as ban

Toronto Sun

time2 hours ago

  • Toronto Sun

Australia to reduce U.S. beef import restrictions denounced by Trump as ban

The restrictions were designed to keep Australia free of mad cow disease Published Jul 24, 2025 • 4 minute read A price for beef is displayed on a shelf at a grocery store in Mount Prospect, Ill., Thursday, July 17, 2025. Photo by Nam Y. Huh / AP MELBOURNE, Australia — Australia announced it will reduce restrictions on U.S. beef imports in a move U.S. President Donald Trump's administration claimed as a major victory over 'non-scientific trade barriers.' This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account Agriculture Minister Julie Collins said Thursday that relaxing the restrictions designed to keep Australia free of mad cow disease, also known as bovine spongiform encephalopathy or BSE, would not compromise biosecurity. 'Australia stands for open and free trade — our cattle industry has significantly benefited from this,' Collins said in a statement. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins responded to Australia's announcement by congratulating Trump on a 'major trade breakthrough that gives greater access to U.S. beef producers selling to Australia.' She issued a statemeant under the leadline: Make Agriculture Great Again Trade Wins. 'American farmers and ranchers produce the safest, healthiest beef in the world. It's absurd that non-scientific trade barriers prevented our beef from being sold to consumers in Australia for the last 20 years,' Rollins said. Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. 'Gone are the days of putting American farmers on the sidelines. This is yet another example of the kind of market access the President negotiates to bring America into a new golden age of prosperity, with American agriculture leading the way,' she added. Australia has allowed imports of beef grown in the United States since 2019. But Australia has not allowed imports from the U.S. of beef sourced from Canada or Mexico because of the disease risk. But the U.S. has recently introduced additional movement controls that identify and trace all cattle from Mexico and Canada to their farms of origin. US cattle import controls satisfy Australian authorities Australian authorities were 'satisfied the strengthened control measures put in place by the U.S. effectively manage biosecurity risks,' Collins said. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The timing of the new, reduced restrictions has not been finalized. Trump attacked Australian import restrictions on U.S. beef when he announced in April that tariffs of at least 10% would be placed on Australian imports, with steel and aluminum facing a 50% tariff. 'Australia bans — and they're wonderful people, and wonderful everything — but they ban American beef,' Trump told reporters then. 'Yet we imported $3 billion of Australian beef from them just last year alone. They won't take any of our beef. They don't want it because they don't want it to affect their farmers and, you know, I don't blame them, but we're doing the same thing right now,' Trump added. Lawmaker fears appeasing Trump endangers Australian cattle industry This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Opposition lawmaker David Littleproud suspected the government was endangering Australia's cattle industry to appease Trump. 'I want to see the science and it should be predicated on science. I'm suspicious of the speed at which this has been done,' Littleproud told reporters. 'We need to give confidence to the industry, but also to you (the public): this is not just about animal welfare, this is about human welfare, this is about BSE potentially coming into this country and having a human impact, so I think it's important the government's very transparent about the science and I don't think it's even beyond the question to have an independent panel review that science to give confidence to everybody,' he added. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Around 70% of Australian beef is exported. Producers fear that export market would vanish overnight if diseases including mad cow or foot-and-mouth disease infected Australian cattle. Will Evans, chief executive of Cattle Australia who represents more than 52,000 grass-fed beef producers across the nation, said he was confident the agriculture department had taken a cautious approach toward U.S. imports. 'The department's undertaken a technical scientific assessment and we have to put faith in them. They've made this assessment themselves. They've said: 'We've looked at this, we've looked at the best science, this is a decision that we feel comfortable with,'' Evans said. 'When you have a $75 billion (Australian $50 billion) industry relying on them not making this mistake, I'm sure they've been very cautious in their decision-making,' he added. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. US beef prices rise because of drought and a domestic cattle shortage Beef prices have been rising in the U.S. due to factors that include drought and shrinking domestic herd numbers. The average price of a pound of ground beef in the U.S. rose to $6.12 in June, up nearly 12% from a year ago, according to U.S. government data. The average price of all uncooked beef steaks rose 8% to $11.49 per pound. Australian demand for U.S. beef is likely to remain low for reasons including a relatively weak Australian dollar. Australia's opposition to any U.S. tariffs will be high on the agenda when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese secures his first face-to-face meeting with Trump. Albanese and Trump were to hold a one-on-one meeting on the sidelines of a Group of Seven summit in Canada last month, but the U.S. president left early. Albanese expects the pair will meet this year, although no date has been announced. The two countries have had a bilateral free trade deal for 20 years and the U.S. has maintained a trade surplus with Australia for decades. Sports Golf Sunshine Girls Canada Canada

Zelenskyy promises safeguards after protests of anti-corruption law
Zelenskyy promises safeguards after protests of anti-corruption law

Global News

time2 hours ago

  • Global News

Zelenskyy promises safeguards after protests of anti-corruption law

Opponents of a new law they say strips Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdogs of their independence called for a third straight day of street protests across the country Thursday, despite President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's attempts to defuse the tension with promises of legislative safeguards. After meeting with the heads of Ukraine's key anti-corruption and security agencies, Zelenskyy promised to act on their recommendations by presenting a bill to Parliament that strengthens the rule of law. 'And very importantly: all the norms for the independence of anti-corruption institutions will be in place,' Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address late Wednesday. Zelenskyy acknowledged the controversy triggered by the new corruption law, which also drew rebukes from European Union officials and international rights groups. 'It's not falling on deaf ears,' Zelenskyy said of the complaints. 'We've analyzed all the concerns, all the aspects of what needs to be changed and what needs to be stepped up.' Story continues below advertisement However, he didn't promise to revoke the law that he approved. The legislation that was adopted this week, despite pleas for Zelenskyy to veto it, tightened government oversight of two key anti-corruption agencies. Critics said the step could significantly weaken the independence of those agencies and give Zelenskyy's circle greater influence over investigations. 1:53 Ukraine announces new Russia peace talks The protests haven't called for Zelenskyy's ouster. But the first major anti-government demonstrations since the war began come at a tough time for Ukraine in its three-year battle to thwart Russia's invasion. Get breaking National news For news impacting Canada and around the world, sign up for breaking news alerts delivered directly to you when they happen. Sign up for breaking National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy Russia's bigger army is accelerating its efforts to pierce Ukraine's front-line defenses and is escalating its bombardment of Ukrainian cities. Ukraine is also facing a question mark over whether the United States will provide more military aid and whether European commitments can take up the slack, with no end to the war in sight. Story continues below advertisement Delegations from Russia and Ukraine met in Istanbul for a third round of talks in as many months Wednesday. But once again the talks were brief and delivered no major breakthrough. Zelenskyy had insisted earlier Wednesday that the new legal framework was needed to crack down harder on corruption. Fighting entrenched corruption is crucial for Ukraine's aspirations to join the EU and maintain access to billions of dollars in Western aid in the war. 'Criminal cases should not drag on for years without verdicts, and those working against Ukraine must not feel comfortable or immune from punishment,' he said. Meanwhile, Russian planes dropped two powerful glide bombs on the center of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, on Thursday morning, regional Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said. At least 16 people were injured, including a 10-year-old girl who suffered an acute stress reaction, he said. The southern Ukrainian city of Odesa and Cherkasy in central Ukraine were also hit overnight, authorities said. The drone and missile strikes on the cities injured 11 people, including a 9-year-old, and damaged historic landmarks and residential buildings, officials said. Ukraine has sought to step up its own long-range drone attacks on Russia, using domestic technology and manufacturing. An overnight Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi killed two women and injured 11 other people, local authorities said Thursday. Story continues below advertisement An oil depot was hit, officials said, without offering details.

Opinion: From Taipei to Montreal: Ideas that can transform our city
Opinion: From Taipei to Montreal: Ideas that can transform our city

Montreal Gazette

time4 hours ago

  • Montreal Gazette

Opinion: From Taipei to Montreal: Ideas that can transform our city

Op Eds Montrealers know frustration by heart: a métro stalled between stations; a hospital queue that stretches late into the night; a complaint submitted to a public office, never acknowledged. Orange cones linger for months, and AI researchers worry a chip delay could halt their work. These bottlenecks sap productivity and erode public trust. Taiwan shows none of this is inevitable. As part of the 2025 Mosaic Taiwan Fellowship, organized by Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, we spent two weeks immersed in Taiwan's society and policy landscape. We joined 30 other Canadian and American participants for site visits, lectures and conversations with public officials, entrepreneurs and community builders. We saw how Taiwan's public services blend efficient infrastructure with thoughtful, user-centred design. These weren't theories. They were working systems. On time, on budget and built with care. Let's start with the chips. Montreal's tech ecosystem runs on silicon: Mila 's AI breakthroughs, CAE's flight simulators, university photonics and quantum labs. Today, roughly 90 per cent of the world's most advanced chips are fabricated in Taiwan. That makes our research economy vulnerable. Luckily, Bromont already hosts Canada's largest micro-electronics hub. Quebec should leverage that strength by attracting a mid-size Taiwanese design studio or packaging facility and launching a joint research chair on resilient supply chains. A strategic investment in long-term economic security. Taiwan's health care system offers another clear model. While Quebec's RAMQ card has limited functionality, Taiwan's National Health Insurance card stores a patient's recent prescriptions, visit summaries and insurance status in a secure chip. It settles claims instantly and links to a national electronic records system. The result? Shorter outpatient wait times, direct access to specialists, and a system that costs about half as much — roughly six per cent of GDP. As Quebec upgrades its digital infrastructure, a smart health card could cut paperwork, reduce errors, and deliver more dignity for patients and providers. And then there's the métro. In Taipei's transit system, platform screen doors prevent accidents and keep trains moving. Painted 'politeness lines' cue riders into quiet, orderly queues. Lights show where the doors will open; priority seats are respected. The effect is tangible: calm platforms, silent cars and a culture of respect. Montreal's REM shows platform doors work here too, yet the STM's Blue Line extension is being planned without them. Quebec should mandate barriers on all new builds and launch pilot campaigns with decals and courtesy messaging at stations like Berri-UQAM. This kind of design shapes how we move. Courtesy is engineered, not wished for. Taiwan also models new ways of listening to citizens. Through platforms like vTaiwan and Join, people can propose policies and collaborate on decisions, from Uber regulations to mask distribution. It's fast, transparent, and builds trust. Montreal's civic tech sector is growing, but often disconnected from public decision-making. A public innovation unit could test digital engagement tools and close that gap. Even construction felt different in Taiwan. Work sites were organized, timelines posted, detours sensible. Métro extensions advanced with visible co-ordination between utilities, transit agencies and contractors. In Quebec, the opposite often feels true. Requiring integrated project delivery models and publishing real-time dashboards would help projects move faster, building public trust. Taiwan's population may be smaller than Canada's, but its innovations in civic design and delivery are ready to be adapted, scaled and implemented in Montreal. With more provincial budgets to come, and the continuing expansion of the REM, our leaders have a chance to act. Mandating platform doors, piloting a digital health card, anchoring a chip partnership, testing digital engagement, and requiring smarter construction tools aren't moonshots. They're practical, proven steps aligned with global best practices. Montreal has the expertise and appetite for change. It just needs the policy to catch up. We saw what's possible in Taiwan. Why not in Montreal? Michael Lecchino is a marketing student at Concordia's John Molson School of Business and president of the Conseil jeunesse de LaSalle. Nicolas Bastien-Carignan studies political science at Université du Québec à Montréal. Patrick Girard is a master's candidate in public and international affairs at Université de Montréal.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store