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On Saturday, Niti Aayog announced India's become a $4tn economy, edging past Japan to take fourth place. And monsoon arrived in Kerala eight days early, beating IMD's Sunday forecast. This is the earliest monsoon has touched mainland India since 2009, and it bodes well for economic growth. An early monsoon, combined with IMD's projections of above-normal rainfall, would likely lead to a bumper kharif harvest, essential for keeping food prices and inflation in check. FY 2025-26 has anyway started with abundant grain stocks, so much so that GOI wants states to lift three months' rations of wheat and rice to clear warehouses for the incoming wheat crop.
Monsoon matters in all this because India's crop yields remain heavily rain-dependent. In MP, half of the acreage is rain-fed. Maharashtra's agriculture is 80% rain-fed. So, both quantum and distribution of rainfall are important. Last year, for example, monsoon ended with a rain surplus overall, but Punjab, UP, Bihar – major agrarian states – had a rain deficit. On the other hand, Rajasthan and Gujarat had a problem of plenty. While drought and flood can be averaged out on paper, that doesn't happen in the field. And any shortfall in production jeopardises schemes like PMGKAY, under which more than 81cr people are provided free grains. In 2022, Centre had to reduce wheat allocation under the scheme for two years, due to lower output.
Another sobering thought: early monsoons, like child prodigies, don't always live up to their promise. The 2009 season turned out to be India's third driest since 1901. Forecasting has improved since then, but still, a lot can happen between Sept and now. What's certain, though, is that good monsoon or bad, cities, where 35% of Indians live, will bear its brunt.
While below-average rain will leave taps dry, and plunge the water table further, leading to secondary effects like ground subsidence, the dangers of excessive rain are well-known. What Bengaluru went through last week – and last year, when it got 111mm of rain on June 2 – is partly a result of old infra that can't cope with the new pattern of torrential rain. But more than that, it's a sign of the complete abandonment of planning in urban extensions. So, it's time officials stop complaining about 'unseasonal' and 'excessive' rain – which is the new normal – and start building urban infra to cope with it.
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This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.
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