Bound for Beijing, E.U. leaders are in a fix between Trump and Xi

Washington Post

7 days ago

BRUSSELS — The European Union's top leaders are traveling to Beijing for a meeting on Thursday marking 50 years of diplomatic ties with China that at the moment are more a source of stress than celebration.
The relationship has soured further in recent weeks over a host of issues, including trade disputes and China's support for Russia. The E.U. traditionally could count on the United States as an ally in pressuring China, but now finds itself under threat of tariffs by President Donald Trump, leaving the 27-nation bloc confronting tensions with the world's two largest economies, which are also embroiled in their own tariff standoff.
'You've got this kind of two-front hit,' said Andrew Small, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund who has advised the E.U. on China policy. 'And it's a moment in which China could decide to squeeze even harder.'
The E.U. had hoped it could resolve some frictions with Beijing or clinch a tariff deal with Trump by now, strengthening its hand with China. 'The fact they have neither makes things more difficult,' Small said. 'You can see this already leading to a kind of mindset of 'you can't afford to look too weak.''
In Brussels, there is anger over China's partnership with Russia during its war in Ukraine and over the flow of cheaper Chinese goods into European markets. In Beijing, there is frustration over E.U. tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and over E.U. sanctions on Chinese banks accused of aiding Russia's war effort.
The E.U. was also unnerved by export controls that China imposed in April, as part of Beijing's trade fight with Trump, which restricted shipments of rare earth minerals and magnets that European companies depend on for manufacturing everything from cars and smartphones to weapons. In June, the United States and China reached a deal to lift the restrictions on some rare earths exports.
In this hostile climate, even organizing Thursday's meeting was a challenge. Originally planned for two days, it was shortened to just one. And expectations are low, with E.U. officials saying they do not expect the two sides to issue a joint declaration.
Nonetheless, China has confirmed that its leader, Xi Jinping, will meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa on Thursday. When they do, Trump's shadow will loom large.
E.U. officials maintain that they will chart their own path with China, though they often calibrate their approach based on the state of relations with their closest traditional ally, the United States. But with Trump threatening tariffs that could upend their own trade relations, Brussels cannot rely on Washington's muscle.
China, seeing Europe in Trump's crosshairs, seems more emboldened to stand up to E.U. scolding over relations with Russia and alleged unfair trade practices. China denies violating trade norms or engaging in human rights abuses.
Beijing is frustrated because 'even with that amount of pressure from America, Europe doesn't want to commit to China in a different way,' said Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese studies at King's College London and a former British diplomat in Beijing.
'China's main message to Europe will be: 'Look, who's your friend? America says it's your friend, and yet it's putting tariffs on you,'' he added.
Ahead of Thursday's meeting, the E.U. has adopted a stern tone, calling the summit an opportunity 'to underline the importance the E.U. attaches to a fair and balanced relationship.'
China, meanwhile, says it is a chance to deepen cooperation. 'China has always believed that after 50 years of development, China-E. U. relations … can navigate difficulties and challenges,' Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters this week.
When Trump's tariff blitz first hit U.S. foes and friends alike, some analysts predicted it could push Europe and China closer with the two eyeing each other as a buffer. That has yet to pan out. Instead, each side seems to be digging in.
In its latest round of sanctions against Russia, the E.U. for the first time targeted two Chinese banks. China's Foreign Ministry blasted the charges as fabricated and warned of 'a serious negative impact' on economic relations.
During a visit to Brussels earlier this month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had warned E.U. officials against the decision, according to an official familiar with the discussions, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.
The minister also suggested a Russian loss in Ukraine was not in Beijing's interest because the U.S. could then turn its full focus to Asia, the official said. That exchange was first reported by the South China Morning Post.
The E.U. countries — together the world's third-largest economy — have long had a complicated, distrustful relationship with China, which was exacerbated after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The relationship has also been strained by E.U. sanctions on China over human rights abuses in Xinjiang, repression of freedoms in Hong Kong, and security issues in the South China Sea.
Yet the E.U. countries have at times shown divisions over 'de-risking' ties with Beijing — an E.U. view of China posing as much peril as potential for profit — versus entirely 'decoupling' their economies from China.
As Trump's tariff threats roil global trade, European nations have sought to hedge their bets and accelerate free trade talks with others including India. E.U. officials have stressed the need to 'diversify' partnerships and frequently reiterate they can be a reliable partner in an unreliable world.
The E.U.'s leaders are on an Asia tour that will begin with a warmer reception in Japan, a Group of Seven ally, on Wednesday before heading to Beijing.
Just this month, von der Leyen, head of the E.U.'s executive branch, accused China of 'flooding global markets with cheap, subsidized goods to wipe out competitors.' Another spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry, Mao Ning, retorted that 'what needs rebalancing' is the E.U.'s 'mindset,' not its economic ties with China.
Some E.U. industries, such as German carmakers, are particularly reliant on the Chinese market.
The Europeans have tried offering the Trump administration a more united front against China, including to counter Chinese overcapacity. But trade talks with Washington are floundering and the E.U. is considering retaliation to Trump.
At the same time, officials say it is in the bloc's interest to set itself apart from the United States.
'I think this is something we really need from China, to not look at the E.U. through the lens of the U.S., but as their largest trading partner,' said an E.U. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss preparations ahead of the summit.
Europe, like the U.S., shoulders a massive trade imbalance with China that E.U. leaders want addressed. In particular, they want to curb the flow of cheap goods, such as those sold by e-commerce sites Shein and Temu.
The Europeans object to China allowing exports of dual-use products that end up in weapons used on the battlefield in Ukraine. Beijing says it is not a party to the war and that it wants peace.
China is also keeping channels open, even as it flexes its muscles. Simona Grano, a China expert at the University of Zurich, said Beijing wants to avoid more trade restrictions and maintain access to E.U. markets and technologies, especially as it faces U.S. levies.
'It's been sort of a growing tension,' she said. 'And now we are at the apex of the situation, which is even more difficult because Europe is in between these two superpowers.'
Kasulis Cho reported from Taipei, Taiwan. Lyric Li in Seoul contributed to this report.