UK could see temperatures of 46C or more in the future, Met Office says
And temperatures of 45C or more "may be possible" as the risk of extreme heat continues to rise with climate change, experts warned in a new study.
Temperatures first hit 40C in the UK during a record-breaking heatwave in 2022, peaking at 40.3C in Coningsby in Lincolnshire on 19 July. The previous top temperature was 38.7C in Cambridge, recorded in 2019.
The extreme heat caused dozens of fires, which ripped through houses, schools, churches and farmland, with fire brigades in London, Leicestershire and South Yorkshire declaring major incidents at the time.
There was also widespread disruption to transport and power systems.
More than 3,000 heat-related deaths were recorded in England over summer 2022, including more than 1,000 excess deaths among older people around the four-day peak of the heatwave.
The risk of 40C temperatures in the UK has been rapidly increasing, according to analysis by the Met Office using global models to create a large number of climate outcomes in current conditions.
The chance of temperatures hitting 40C is now 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s, and the odds have almost tripled since 2000.
Temperatures soaring to a maximum of 46.6C is also considered "plausible".
There is a 50:50 chance of temperatures hitting 40C again in the next 12 years as climate change pushes up temperatures, the Met Office said in the study published in Weather Journal.
"Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance [of exceeding 40C] to keep rising," Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the Met Office, and lead author of the study, said.
Heatwaves could also go on for a month or more in the future, with a climate model showing up to two-thirds of summer days could be above the heatwave threshold of 28C.
Twelve consecutive days above 35C is also possible, according to the study.
Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office science fellow and co-author of the study, said the findings showed the UK needed to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures to "better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat".
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