Don't assume further rate cuts from the Bank of Canada, Poloz warns
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'Inflation has been kind of firming lately, using the core measures the Bank of Canada pays attention to,' said Poloz, now special adviser to Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP, during a webinar on Tuesday. 'And the counter tariffs that the government has put in place will start boosting inflation in the next couple of months.'
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On June 4, the Bank of Canada decided to hold its policy rate for the second straight time at 2.75 per cent, as it assesses how tariffs are affecting the Canadian economy.
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Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said it was too early to see the impact of retaliatory tariffs on the published CPI data but expects to see those effects in the coming months. The Government of Canada imposed 25 per cent tariffs on almost $60 billion worth of United States goods in response to U.S. tariffs, although certain exemptions apply. Carney has also signalled further potential retaliatory tariffs.
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Poloz said the central bank had to learn a hard lesson during the post-pandemic era, when inflation unexpectedly jumped higher than expected. At the time, Macklem said inflation would be 'transitory.'
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'The central bank said, 'Don't worry, that's a transitory thing.' Well, transitory turned out to be two years,' said Poloz. 'Having learned that lesson the hard way, I think central banks are going to be much more preoccupied with inflation risks.'
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The Canadian economy grew by 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year, mainly as the result of a rise of exports, as businesses pulled forward their inventory to get ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff announcements. Macklem said he expects growth in the second quarter to be considerably weaker, while many economists are forecasting a recession this year.
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The unemployment rate also hit seven per cent in May, as tariff uncertainty continued to slow hiring demand and the manufacturing sector showed significant job losses in the last few months.
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Poloz said the deterioration in the labour market is a 'recessionary indicator' and he expects further layoffs as the result of tariffs in the coming months. This will be a point of concern for the Bank of Canada but Poloz noted that governments have shown a willingness to use fiscal policy to address the economic damage brought on by tariffs, while the central bank can remain focused on price stability.
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You've probably never heard of Con Jones. But he was once a household name in Vancouver, a fixture in local newspapers and sports pages in the 1910s and '20s. Jones owned a chain of tobacco shops called Don't Argue, which featured early Vancouver's most unforgettable logo: a guy in a bowler hat shoving another guy in the face. He also ran several pool rooms and a bowling alley. However, the real source of his wealth was probably gambling, which was illegal but tolerated by the police. With his profits, he founded a professional lacrosse team, and even built his own sports stadium by the PNE, Con Jones Park. Get top headlines and gossip from the world of celebrity and entertainment. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sun Spots will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. For all the notoriety he received, the details of his background seemed a bit fuzzy. Jones was Australian, but his life Down Under was a mystery. So John Fuller set out to unravel it. It took a decade, but Fuller has just released a Jones bio, Fatigue, Fortune and Fear: The Rise and Fall of Con Jones (Tellwell). It's subtitled 'Australian fugitive, Canadian sports mogul.' It turns out that Con Jones wasn't his real name. It was Thomas Shortel. He changed it after he fled Australia when his betting shop didn't have the money to pay out to customers after the Melbourne Cup, a big horse race. Essentially, he bet the favourites would lose, and he wouldn't have to pay out the money. 'The first two favourites came in first and second,' relates Fuller, 68, a former copy editor at The Province. 'He gambled and lost, and had to take off. 'If the favourites lose, that's great, I'm legit, I've got this money. And if the favourites win, I'm just taking the money (and skipping town).' That's the game.' He sailed to Vancouver with his brother, arriving in November 1903 with the money he didn't pay to bettors. Most people on the lam would have stayed out of the public eye, but Tom Shortel was a showman, with a penchant for the limelight. So he became Con Jones, opened a pool hall with card tables and started promoting special events, like smokers, through amateur sports clubs. 'In those days, the cities had what they called a 10-cent rule,' explains Fuller, who was born in London, England, grew up in South Africa and immigrated to Canada in the 1980s. 'The city inspectors would tolerate gambling as long as nobody could lose more than 10 cents at a time, and Con just milked that to the max. He would have all sorts of different little games going on in his building that the guys could play.' When the authorities tried to put a stop to all the gambling going on, Jones hired the best lawyers. 'He managed to keep himself on the right side of the law through high-powered legal muscle,' said Fuller, who is selling his book online through Amazon and Chapters/Indigo. 'His little trick was he never participated ever in the stakes of any game. He would have a little slot on the side of the table, (and) before each hand got dealt, you had to drop a penny in the slot. 'It's amazing, (his) wealth was built up sort of a penny at a time.' Jones spent a fortune enticing star lacrosse players to play for a team he began in Vancouver. Some were also hockey stars. Jones paid Newsy Lalonde $5,000 to play for his lacrosse team, at a time when Lalonde made $1,300 per season to play for the Montreal Canadiens. It worked. Jones' lacrosse team won the Minto Cup over the archrival New Westminster Salmonbellies in 1911. His finances also grew with the Don't Argue chain, which included 20 East Hastings St., longtime home of The Only seafood restaurant. But behind the scenes there always seemed to be turmoil. Fuller believes Shortel/Jones may have been blackmailed in Australia by a ruthless newspaper owner named Norton. In Australia, Shortel/Jones also left behind an illegitimate daughter, Victoria Johnson, who reconnected with him when she was 17 and was constantly causing a kerfuffle. Victoria had a knack for conning wealthy men out of their money, which eventually landed her in an Australian jail. –OPTIONAL TRIM FOR PRINT– 'She was a real talent, in a criminal sense,' said Fuller. 'It was breathtaking, the scope of it. She would pretend to be someone really wealthy who had this huge inheritance coming, and then once she got to know somebody, she would borrow money from them, usually quite a big sum. And then disappear.' –END OPTIONAL TRIM– Jones and his family still managed to remain quite respectable in the public eye, building a handsome mansion in Shaughnessy in 1922 that was adorned with the latest rage, a King Tut-themed chandelier. Jones also put a $1,000 down payment on a site in east Vancouver to build Con Jones park in 1920, which was a major venue for lacrosse, soccer and baseball for decades. It's now known as Callister Park, after the man who had sold it to Jones, who had never paid off the mortgage on the land. Fuller discovered all this through his grandmother Margaret, whose second marriage was to one of Con Jones' sons, Dill. When his grandmother died in 2002, she left behind boxes of the Jones archive, including diaries, metal token/coins that were used at the Don't Argue, and a couple of dazzling scrapbooks featuring newspaper clippings, photos and illustrations. Sadly, the health of Jones declined in the 1920s after decades of alcoholism. He died on June 3, 1929, at only 59 years old. jmackie@
