
Beijing ready with fresh tactics if Manila launches new South China Sea case: expert
The Philippines is considering another legal challenge against Beijing over the disputed waterway.
One option is for the Philippines to sue China for the alleged extraction of giant clams and substantial ecological harm to coral reefs within Manila's exclusive economic zone.
Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.
In an interview with the South China Morning Post, Wu Shicun, the founder of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said Beijing could take strong countermeasures to show its resolve and escalate costs for Manila in response to its initiation of legal proceedings.
"The very fact that the Philippines is pursuing a legal challenge suggests that it benefited from the first case and sees the attempt as a worthwhile endeavour," Wu said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on the weekend.
"To counter this, China must ensure that the costs for the Philippines outweigh the gains, making its actions a futile effort."
An effective countermeasure could involve Beijing imposing a deadline for Manila to remove the BRP Sierra Madre - a World War II-era tank landing ship intentionally stationed on Second Thomas Shoal - Wu suggested. Should Manila fail to comply with the deadline, Beijing could assume responsibility for towing the vessel away, he added.
Developing infrastructure on Scarborough Shoal - including a coastguard law enforcement base, logistical support installations, marine environmental research institutions and lighthouses - would also be feasible to fortify Chinese control.
"Furthermore, China's reaction may also act as a cautionary signal to other countries regarding the repercussions of undertaking similar measures," Wu said.
Scarborough Shoal, known as Panatag in the Philippines and Huangyan Island in China, is a triangular cluster of small, low-lying rocky islets within Manila's 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone. Since 2012, China has maintained control over this area, despite competing claims from Manila.
In 2016, the Philippines secured a victory at the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which determined that China's extensive territorial claims in the South China Sea were unfounded under international law.
China adhered to its "four noes" policy in the case - no acceptance, no participation, no recognition and no implementation - but Wu hinted that China's response "might not be that simple" this time.
The South China Sea has increasingly become a source of international tension. Last week, Australia and China traded barbs over their mid-air encounter in the Paracel Islands, known as the Xisha Islands in China and the Hoang Sa Islands in Vietnam. The archipelago is the subject of a long-standing and contentious maritime dispute between Beijing and Hanoi.
Canberra said a Chinese J-16 fighter jet released flares within 30 metres (98 feet) of an Australian surveillance plane over the area and called the incident an "unsafe and dangerous" manoeuvre. Beijing defended its action and accused Australia of violating its sovereignty and entering its airspace.
The mid-air incident marks the latest in a series of episodes between China and external countries or claimants within the increasingly disputed airspace and maritime routes of Asia.
Referring to the recent development, Wu foresaw more foreign military involvement in the waterway and said the expanded presence of foreign military activities in the South China Sea represented a pressing new challenge that China must confront.
"These military operations may extend beyond conventional naval and aerial manoeuvres, poised to broaden into the spheres of unmanned equipment and undersea activities," he said.
Wu, who is chairman of the Huayang Centre for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance in Hainan, has emphasised the urgent need for crisis-management mechanisms and legally binding rules to govern military interactions in the air and at sea, to prevent collisions.
US President Donald Trump has yet to articulate a clear US position or strategy on the South China Sea issues. According to Wu, this is because Trump is occupied with domestic issues, and the maritime dispute is not his priority.
"At this juncture, forecasting the future policy direction of the United States in the South China Sea is challenging, particularly in terms of the level of US military support extended to the Philippines. It may take from six months to a year to fully discern how Washington's policy in the region will evolve," he said.
The Trump administration may re-evaluate the value of the US-Philippine military alliance and the military support offered to the Philippines throughout the years, according to Wu.
"In a sense, the provocative encouragement by Washington is unlikely to exceed what occurred during the Biden era," he said.
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the New York-based Eurasia Group, also said Trump would be more focused on bilateral trade unless Chinese action or a sudden conflict drew his attention to the South China Sea.
"But short of that, I don't think this is a policy priority for him," he told the Post on the sidelines of the Munich conference.
During a panel discussion about the waterway during the conference, former Chinese deputy foreign minister Fu Ying expressed concern that "the shadow of the US" behind the claimant's actions was alarming to China.
Ng Eng Hen, Singapore's defence minister, indicated in the panel discussion that the conflict extended beyond mere territorial claims, with major global powers influencing the dynamics of the region.
"China's actions in the South China Sea, if we are frank about it, are a response to US containment strategy ... Now China is saddled with two conflicting goals. While it needs to show strength and power to the US and its allies, China also needs to manage its relations with its smaller neighbours in Asean," Ng said.
"You either accept that there is strategic rivalry, the great game, is going on in the South China Sea or you don't. And whether there are mechanisms to reduce conflict, whether external powers are needed, those are all self-evident questions with self-evident answers."
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright (c) 2025. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


American Military News
19 minutes ago
- American Military News
Zelenskyy Vows More Attacks Inside Russia As Civilian Casualties Mount In Eastern Ukraine
Civilian deaths mounted as Russia continued to press its offensive in eastern Ukraine, claiming to have captured two more villages, as Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed to retaliate with further attacks inside Russia. Ukraine did not immediately comment directly on claims by the Russian Defense Ministry that its forces had on July 26 captured Zeleniy Hai in the Donetsk region and the village of Malyivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Zelenskyy did acknowledge heavy fighting along the frontlines in Ukraine's eastern regions, but he also spoke of 'successful actions by our units' in the embattled Sumy region and said his forces were 'eliminating the occupiers in the border areas.' Reports from both sides could not immediately be verified. Zelenskyy also said the focal point of Russian assaults remained near the important logistics hub of Pokrovsk, a city with a prewar population of more than 60,000 but which now is mostly in ruins from Russian air strikes. In his nightly video address, Zelenskyy said Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskiy identified Pokrovsk as an area requiring 'special attention' amid constant Russian attacks. Military spokesman Viktor Trehubov told Ukrainian TV that Russian forces were attacking Pokrovsk in 'a small torrent…that simply does not stop' The violence comes three days after Ukrainian and Russian officials held a third direct meeting in Istanbul amid efforts to end the conflict, which ignited into a full-blown war following Russia's invasion of February 2022. Those talks made progress on further swaps of prisoners and the remains of fallen soldiers, but no breakthroughs were apparent on efforts to reach a cease-fire. US President Donald Trump, showing frustration at Russian leader Vladimir Putin's refusal to agree to a cease-fire, in mid-July threatened to impose new sanctions on Moscow if it doesn't reach a deal with Kyiv by early September. In an interview with Fox News broadcast on July 26, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Trump is becoming 'increasingly frustrated' that despite having good interactions with Putin during phone calls, 'it never leads anywhere.' Trump is 'losing his patience. He's losing his willingness to continue to wait for the Russian side to do something here, to bring an end to this war,' Rubio said, adding that there was 'no way that Putin could have sustained this war without Chinese support, particularly buying his oil.' Zelenskyy has said Russia's latest attacks were a 'response' to Kyiv's proposal of an immediate cease-fire during the peace talks. Zelenskyy vowed to retaliate with further attacks on military sites inside Russia after civilian deaths mounted on July 26 in multiple Ukrainian regions under the fire of Russian artillery and drone strikes. 'Today, unfortunately, there were numerous Russian strikes on our cities and our communities: Sumy – including Ukrainian energy infrastructure, as well as Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kherson region, and Donetsk region,' Zelenskyy said in his July 26 video address. 'Such strikes certainly cannot be left without response, and Ukrainian long-range drones ensure one,' he posted separately on X. 'Russian military enterprises, Russian logistics, and Russian airfields must see that Russia's own war is now hitting them back with real consequences,' Zelenskyy posted. Zelenskyy said he instructed officials to be more active in attracting external funding for drones. 'I also instructed government officials and the defense minister to more actively review all our agreements we have with our partners — the ones we must implement fully, but which, unfortunately, are currently still only partially being carried out,' he added without being specific. Zelenskyy has announced that his country had secured funding for three US-made Patriot missile defense systems and is negotiating for seven more of the air-defense systems, part of a new agreement that enables European allies to buy US weaponry for Kyiv. Following Zelenskyy's latest remarks, Russian authorities reported attacks inside the country. Aleksandr Khinshtein, governor of Russia's Kursk region, on July 26 claimed that a Ukranian drone had killed one person in the village of Obesta, about 5 kilometers from the border. And authorities in the Volgograd region said falling debris from destroyed Ukrainian drones disrupted railway power supply near the border area. Traffic at the city's airport was also disrupted, officials said. Civilian Casualties Mount Following Russia's large-scale overnight attacks on Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions — which left multiple people dead and injured — the head of the regional military administration, Serhiy Lysak, said the Russian military attacked the Nikopol and Synelnykove districts of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Lysak said a 66-year-old man died in the Nikopol region, while three people were injured in the Synelnykove district. Serhiy Gorbunov, military administrator of the strategic frontline city of Kostyantynivka, wrote on social media that a civilian was killed as the result of a drone attack and urged residents to evacuate away from oncoming Russian forces. 'We urge all residents to take care of themselves and their loved ones! Do not ignore the threat — evacuate to safer regions in a timely manner,' he wrote. Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov said five people — including three emergency workers — were injured while responding to an earlier strike. Sumy military Governor Oleh Hryhorov said three people were hurt in air attacks in the northeast Ukrainian region. Russia denies targeting civilian areas despite widespread evidence of such attacks.


Bloomberg
20 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
US and China Are Expected to Extend Trade Truce by 90 Days, SCMP Says
US and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by another three months, the South China Morning Post reported, citing unnamed sources. The two countries will not impose additional tariffs on each other during the extension, one of the sources told the newspaper. The current pause was to end Aug. 12.


Business Insider
an hour ago
- Business Insider
China Calls for Global AI Rules as U.S. Escalates Tech Fight – What Investors Should Watch
China is proposing to lead the creation of a new international body to shape the future of artificial intelligence. Speaking at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, Premier Li Qiang called for a World AI Cooperation Organization, aiming to make AI development more inclusive and to prevent it from being dominated by a handful of nations or companies. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. The proposal comes as the global AI race accelerates. Premier Li cited the need for shared governance to address the risks tied to AI, from job losses to security concerns. Former Google (GOOG) chief executive Eric Schmidt backed the idea of global collaboration, saying the U.S. and China should work together to maintain stability and ensure human control over powerful AI systems. Tensions Rise as China Courts Allies and the U.S. Doubles Down However, turning that vision into a working framework will not be easy, as the U.S. is taking a different path. Just days before the conference, President Donald Trump signed new executive orders to ease regulations and boost energy access for AI infrastructure, including data centers. These moves are designed to strengthen companies like OpenAI and Google while reinforcing America's lead in advanced AI. In the meantime, geopolitical friction remains high. U.S. restrictions on Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) chips continue to limit China's access to high-end semiconductors. Premier Li acknowledged these supply chain issues and reaffirmed China's goal to reduce its reliance on foreign technology. That includes support for homegrown companies like DeepSeek, which has gained attention for scaling up open-sourced models and AI agents. China's strategy also includes outreach to the Global South, including partnerships with Brazil and African nations. However, international trust remains a hurdle. Western companies and governments are hesitant to align with a governance model led by Beijing, especially regarding concerns around data access, intellectual property, and dual-use technologies. Takeaway for Investors For investors, the gap between cooperation and competition is clear. Chinese firms are racing to set their own benchmarks, while U.S. players double down on domestic infrastructure and AI regulation. The idea of a global AI framework may gain traction diplomatically, but market dynamics suggest a more fragmented path forward. Whether this initiative reshapes AI development or becomes another diplomatic flashpoint will depend on how governments and companies balance access, risk, and control in the months ahead. Using TipRanks' Comparison Tool, we've analyzed several leading AI stocks that could be influenced by geopolitical tensions, shifting regulations, and broader market dynamics.