Trading Direct Talks for Nuclear Exclusivity?
This Saturday, American and Iranian delegations head to the Sultanate of Oman to begin negotiations. While the Americans insist the talks will be direct, the Iranians maintain they remain indirect. The U.S. National Security Advisor has stated that the negotiations will address Iran's missile program, but Tehran firmly asserts that it will only discuss the nuclear file, specifically its peaceful nature, and will offer guarantees sufficient to restore confidence in that regard.
As of last night, U.S. President Donald Trump was still speaking of a military solution if diplomacy fails. But he knows that military action, if ever effective, would only be so before negotiations, not after, and that its exclusion is not a gesture of goodwill, but a calculation of risks, consequences, and potential returns.
According to Benjamin Netanyahu, the objective is the dismantling and destruction of Iran's nuclear programs by American hands. Some U.S. officials also demand that Iran fully halt uranium enrichment. Meanwhile, all messaging from Washington continues to emphasise Iran's agreement to end its support for resistance movements, what they call its 'regional proxies.'
Iran, however, speaks in firm and unequivocal terms: there will be no negotiations beyond the nuclear file and the guarantees required to instill trust. Its senior military commanders also declare openly that any attack or threat will be met with decisive and forceful retaliation.
Given the long and hostile history between the two nations, it is unlikely either side would enter talks merely to 'see where they lead.' Serious, detailed exchanges, through Omani mediation, have already been ongoing for months. Each side has likely mapped out the limits the other is willing to reach. Without this groundwork, entering negotiations with the risk of failure would be worse than not negotiating at all.
A potential trade-off may emerge during this first indirect round: Iran may agree to move toward direct negotiations, while the U.S. agrees to limit the talks strictly to the nuclear issue. If a deal is eventually reached, it could open the door for further coordination, communication, and preparation for a separate set of parallel negotiations addressing the broader unresolved issues.
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