Rising US fiscal risk signals dollar weakness and yield spike ahead: Jahangir Aziz

Economic Times

6 days ago

So, with the increase in fiscal deficit and reduced foreign borrowing, the US might experience higher yields and a weaker dollar, as the government's actions increase the risk premium on the country. This is how I see the dollar and US yields moving.
Synopsis JPMorgan's Jahangir Aziz highlights the potential impact of a July 31st court ruling on existing tariffs, overshadowing the August 1st deadline. The court's decision on IEEPA could invalidate current trade deals and lead to prolonged uncertainty. Despite market resilience, the delayed impact of tariffs on inflation and ongoing negotiations with India remain key concerns. "So, while August 1st is a key deadline, July 31st—just the day before—could have a meaningful and material impact on what we wake up to on August 1st or 2nd," says Jahangir Aziz, JPMorgan.
ADVERTISEMENT Help us analyze and understand what the key talking points for market participants are right now. The 9th July deadline has already passed, and we're now waiting for the 1st of August. However, there haven't been any major announcements so far, and many tariff deals are still pending. How do you think market participants will interpret this, especially since the markets have shown resilience recently?
Jahangir Aziz: The markets are clearly showing resilience and are shrugging off the new or recent set of tariffs that have been announced. However, let me make two points. First, August 1st is after July 31st, and the market has somewhat forgotten that amidst all the talk about new tariffs and the Fed. On July 31st, the federal appeals court will begin hearing the case of the appeal made by the government regarding a case they lost in the US Court of International Trade. The court ruled that all tariffs imposed under IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act), which includes universal tariffs and reciprocal tariffs, are inadmissible. Depending on what the appeals court does on July 31st, or maybe in a couple of days (since it is an appeals court), these tariffs could become moot. This is because IEEPA, the act on which both the tariffs and the reciprocal tariffs are based, could no longer be used. In that case, we could face more months of uncertainty, as the US government may then shift away from IEEPA tariffs to tariffs based on other sections of the trade act, such as Section 301, Section 232, etc. So, while August 1st is a key deadline, July 31st—just the day before—could have a meaningful and material impact on what we wake up to on August 1st or 2nd.
Also, we'd like to get your view on developments regarding the Fed chair. With US inflation seeming to be under control, if there is no rate cut as the market expects, do you think this could lead to a change in leadership at the Fed?
Jahangir Aziz: That's a completely different issue, and it's hard to speculate on it. But let me start with your first point. You mentioned that inflation is under control. Well, if you look at goods inflation last month and exclude autos (which have dampened due to price cuts by Japanese auto manufacturers selling to their subsidiaries), goods inflation in the US was running at around 5.5%. Even though there has been a significant shift away from China to countries with lower tariffs, like ASEAN, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, etc., and many firms are absorbing tariff increases on their profit margins for now, goods inflation—excluding autos—still stands at 5.5%. The tariff impact is taking longer than expected. As we had anticipated, it would take 2 to 4 months for the tariff effects to hit inflation. Just because it isn't showing up in the data now doesn't mean it won't later. The Fed is aware of this and will be watching for signs of this pass-through and also keeping an eye on non-farm payrolls. Although the most recent non-farm payrolls report showed a surprise number of 147,000, the private sector non-farm payrolls stood at just 74,000—one of the lowest in the past two years.
I want to talk about India. The only missing piece seems to be what happens with tariffs, while India is holding ground. There doesn't seem to be a consensus yet on how much tariffs India will face. Where do you think this situation is headed?
Jahangir Aziz: My guess is that since India hasn't received a letter yet, at least negotiations are still ongoing, which is a very good sign. Unlike countries like Japan or Korea, which have already received letters and now have to scramble to start trade deals, India's negotiations are still in progress, and the US is not just saying, "Here's the deal, take it or leave it." So that's a positive sign. As for where the tariffs will settle, I don't have an insider perspective, but my guess is that India will likely try to protect its agricultural sector, as it should. India would probably be willing to compromise on other sectors. But suppose we have a trade deal tomorrow, and then the federal court rules that IEEPA tariffs are inadmissible, upholding the US CIT court's decision. Then, what happens to the trade deal? These deals are being made on the assumption that IEEPA tariffs will continue. But if the appeals court, or even the Supreme Court, rules otherwise, then none of these trade deals would make sense. What kind of deal are you cutting under those circumstances?
The way markets are digesting tariff news seems a little different this time. We aren't seeing a surge in gold prices or the dollar index, and emerging market sentiment is holding up relatively well. How do you see the dollar moving from these levels, particularly with regard to its impact on emerging market sentiment?
Jahangir Aziz: I look at the US dollar and 10-year treasury yields through the lens of my experience working with emerging market countries. I'm not suggesting the US is an emerging market—far from it. The US probably has the best private sector in the world. However, looking at it from this perspective, consider this: the US fiscal deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be around 6.2%, and for 2026, it could be around 7.2%. At the same time, the US is seeking to impose tariffs to address its trade balance, which is expected to decrease from 4% to about 3.5% due to tariffs. Here's the situation: the US is increasing its fiscal deficit by 1% while also reducing its current account deficit by 0.5%, meaning its foreign borrowing will decrease. To make up for this, the US needs to find 1.5% of GDP in increased domestic savings. If this were an emerging market country, we'd expect bond yields to rise and the exchange rate to depreciate. So, with the increase in fiscal deficit and reduced foreign borrowing, the US might experience higher yields and a weaker dollar, as the government's actions increase the risk premium on the country. This is how I see the dollar and US yields moving.
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