How Shane Bieber reshapes the Blue Jays' starting rotation

New York Times

4 days ago

TORONTO — With a rotation built of consistent veterans and stable normalcy, the Toronto Blue Jays injected some real upside on Thursday morning.
Acquiring Shane Bieber ahead of the trade deadline adds a potential playoff starter to the Jays' rotation — a guy with a Cy Young on his mantle, an ERA title in his bag and three career postseason outings under his belt. However, that upside comes with risk.
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Bieber owns a 3.22 career ERA, but has made just two big-league starts since the start of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery. He's yet to appear in an MLB game this season, though he nears a return. It's a gamble the Jays were willing to make, hoping to enhance their starting group from one built to thrive in the regular season to one that can win in October.
Bieber remains at least two weeks away from a big-league return. He threw four innings of one-run ball in his latest rehab outing, striking out seven batters and reaching 59 pitches. The righty has progressed smoothly and his next scheduled start was set for Sunday, but there's always risk in the recovery from one of baseball's most significant surgeries, even in the final stages.
Weirdly, Bieber's delayed arrival may have added to Toronto's interest. He's certainly a better fit with the Jays than other teams in need of immediate rotation help. After navigating spot starts and bullpen games for the first two months of the 2025 season, manager John Schneider finally found a set starting five in June. Max Scherzer's thumb concerns have quieted and Eric Lauer has turned from temporary solution to permanent rotation fixture. Despite owning the 24th-ranked rotation ERA, there is no clear starting pitcher to bump out of the group at this point, and a long-term six-man rotation would be difficult with many off days in the next two months.
'I feel really good about them,' Schneider said of his rotation. 'You know what you're going to get. They're reliable, they're veteran, they're durable, knock on wood. But yeah, pretty happy with that group.'
So the Jays can afford patience with Bieber's recovery. If a rotation spot opens in August, Bieber should be able to step in. If the current group remains healthy, figuring out who to bump to the bullpen (or if a six-man is required) will be a future problem — and arguably a good one to have. Alek Manoah and prospects like Adam Macko, Kendrys Rojas and Trey Yesavage now become more luxury than necessary depth. As long as Bieber is healthy and effective by October, that's all that matters for a Toronto team currently sitting 6 ½ games up on the American League's final playoff spot.
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While Bieber didn't come cheap, the injury certainly impacted his value. The lone prospect traded to Cleveland, Khal Stephen, was highly regarded in Toronto's system with six different pitches, improving command and one of the lowest ERAs in minor-league baseball this year. Per Keith Law, Stephen entered the 2025 campaign as Toronto's ninth-ranked prospect, though he likely sits higher after a strong season.
However, the price tag still wasn't the multiple-prospect package needed to acquire one of the market's top rental starters, like Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly. Yet, if healthy and anything close to his prior form, Bieber could deliver comparable, or even better, results to those other rentals down the stretch. He has a lower career ERA than all three.
The former Cy Young winner comes with obvious risk. Can he stay healthy? Will he recover and return to the top-of-rotation production he flashed before injury? However, that recovery — and Bieber's current timeline — allows Toronto not to confront an immediate decision in the rotation. And with the Blue Jays setting eyes on October, he could bring the undeniable upside needed to win when it matters.
(Photo of Shane Bieber in March 2024: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)