Minister wants to persuade EU to avoid ‘emission fines', but experts say threat of €26bn penalty is real
The colossal figure is at the upper end of estimates jointly published earlier this year by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and Climate Change Advisory Council.
Ireland has already had to buy tens of millions of euro worth of credits from other states to make up for missing 2020 targets, but the advisory bodies warned that the cost would escalate rapidly by 2030 if the country does not make dramatic emissions cuts.
The minister insisted there was no specific mechanism in place in Europe to deal with breaches in 2030.
'There's no formula published and there's no informal formula as to what measures would be taken by the commission in relation to states that do not meet their target so it's just speculative,' he said.
'This is something I have discussed with the commission myself,' he said.
'Should there be financial impositions, I think the better thing to do would be to instruct and direct states to invest further in their own climate measures such as renewables.'
He said other EU states shared that view, as they were also likely to miss their targets.
Figures released yesterday show emissions fell by only 2pc last year – nowhere near the scale needed.
Marie Donnelly, chair of the Climate Change Advisory Council, said the reduction was 'disappointing'.
'By delaying investment to deliver these reductions, the Government is increasing the risk and costs required to comply with targets that have already been agreed,' she said.
'It is better to make the investments now for households, communities and businesses, rather than paying large fines in a few years.'
Friends of the Earth spokesman Seán McLoughlin said: 'A 2pc reduction, when we need to be making deep emissions cuts year-on-year, shows that the Government is still stuck in climate go-slow mode. We are falling further and further behind on our climate commitments, while the world continues to warm at terrifying speed.'
Environmental NGO An Taisce said: 'The emissions inventories now published signal yet another year of climate action drift by the Irish State, and an ongoing failure of policy to address the climate emergency.'
Social Democrats climate spokesperson Jennifer Whitmore said Mr O'Brien's attitude to potential fines was 'blasé'.
'The Government is delusional if it does not accept that severe financial consequences are now a very real threat,' she said.
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