EV launches may stall as China chokes magnet supply: Crisil sounds alarm for auto sector
Rare earth magnets, although accounting for less than 5 per cent of a vehicle's cost, are essential for
permanent magnet synchronous motors
(PMSMs) widely used in EVs and hybrids, as well as in components like electric power steering in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
In April 2025, China imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and finished magnets, requiring detailed end-use declarations and client confirmations, including that the materials would not be used for defence purposes or re-exported to the US. The revised rules have led to approval delays of at least 45 days, creating a backlog and tightening global supply chains.
India sourced over 80 per cent of its ~540 tonne rare earth magnet imports from China in the last fiscal. Crisil Ratings flagged that a disruption lasting more than a month could impact EV launches and stall production schedules. 'The supply squeeze comes just as the auto sector is preparing for aggressive EV rollouts. Over a dozen new electric models are planned for launch, most built on PMSM platforms,' said Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, Crisil Ratings.
According to Crisil, most automakers currently have 4-6 weeks of inventory. If the situation is not resolved, EV model launches could be deferred or rescheduled starting July 2025. While the immediate risk is to the EV segment, ICE passenger vehicles and two-wheelers could also be affected if the supply crunch extends.
In FY26, domestic passenger vehicle volumes are expected to grow 2-4%, while electric PVs could rise 35-40 per cent on a low base. Electric two-wheelers may see ~27 per cent growth, compared with overall 2W growth of 8-10%. But sustained supply tightness may slow this momentum, particularly for EVs.
'Despite contributing less than 5 per cent of a vehicle's cost, these magnets are indispensable for EV motors and electric steering systems,' said Poonam Upadhyay, Director, Crisil Ratings. 'Automakers are actively engaging with alternative suppliers in Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Australia, and the US, while also optimising existing inventories.'
The report added that during the pandemic, rare earth magnet supplies remained stable, unlike semiconductors, reinforcing reliance on just-in-time inventories. However, unlike semiconductors which have a diversified supply base, over 90 per cent of rare earth magnet processing is concentrated in China, with limited short-term alternatives.
Crisil Ratings said that automakers and the government are addressing the risk through two approaches: building strategic inventories and sourcing from alternate suppliers in the short term; and reducing import dependence via exploration, domestic production, and recycling in the long term.
The pace of China's export approvals remains the immediate monitorable, Crisil said, as the sector braces for possible disruption ahead of a key EV launch cycle.
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