Cyril must seize opportunity
Iran's vulnerabilities have been exposed and its confidence has been shaken.
The Israel-Iran war lasted only 12 days but its consequences will reshape global politics for years.
One positive is that the battering taken by South Africa's ally, Iran, could paradoxically greatly benefit this country, if President Cyril Ramaphosa had the wit and courage to seize the opportunity.
SA-Iran ties
The greatest impediment to a good relationship with the United States has been SA's support of Iran.
It is hardly surprising, then, that SA's increasing alignment with Iran's 'axis of resistance' and its self-appointed role as a spokesperson for the global south in siding with Russia and China against Western democracies, has caused the US steadily growing concern over the past dozen or so years.
This came to a head in February under the combative presidency of Donald Trump, who issued a punishing executive order against SA.
Despite these substantial economic costs caused by the order and Ramaphosa speaking fervently about the need to 'reset' ties with the US, the government seems paralysed.
It boils down to the fact that foreign policy is not determined by pragmatism and national interest, but by ideology and party interest.
The foundation of SA's post-1994 risky friendship with Iran stems from an anti-Western ideological outlook that the ANC has historically shared.
This has been amplified by a powerful Islamist clique within the department of international relations and cooperation that is strong enough within ANC party structures to dictate a harder line on Middle East matters than many in the Cabinet would choose.
ALSO READ: Iran voices 'serious doubts' over Israel commitment to ceasefire
Iran's vulnerabilities have been exposed
The drubbing that Iran took in the 12-day war changes everything. Iran's new precariousness as a functional state, its wavering status as a revolutionary beacon and its more circumscribed financial circumstances reduce Monday 10 30 June 2025 its usefulness to the ANC on all fronts.
Whether its nuclear programme has been destroyed or only set back months, Iran undoubtedly will have reduced capacity for mischief-making in the Middle East, while preoccupied with internal reconstruction.
Infrastructure has to be rebuilt, lost nuclear and military expertise replaced and weaponry stocks replenished, all while fretting whether the ayatollah's government might be toppled in a popular uprising.
Iran's vulnerabilities have been exposed and its confidence has been shaken.
Israel effortlessly thwarted its much-hyped missile barrages, while the US demonstrated decisively that it would not sit idle while Tehran lashed out.
The loop of perpetual Middle East conflict has been broken, or at least dramatically reset. Iran's terror proxies are isolated, vulnerable and on the back foot.
ALSO READ: Six Israelis detained for attacking soldiers in West Bank
Israel's upper hand and mending ties
For the first time in decades, the strategic initiative lies firmly with Israel.
Militarily, the Jewish state has never been stronger but it is being comprehensively bested on the battlefield of international public opinion over the conflict in Gaza.
With Iran down, for the moment, and Syria making noises, this is Israel's best window yet to resolve the Palestinian question; to trade restraint for recognition and to convert tactical dominance into a durable regional peace through a revitalised and expanded Abraham Accords.
South Africa faces its own fork in the road. It can continue acting as a megaphone for radical Islam and a cheerleader for rogue states or it, too, can seize the moment.
Re-establishing ties with Israel, mending its fractured relationship with Washington and offering itself as a credible, post-ideological broker in the Middle East would not only serve the national interest, it would rescue a South African foreign policy now adrift in ANC moral incoherence, under Ramaphosa's timorous captaincy.
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