Will Palantir Be a $1 Trillion Company by 2035?
The company could receive a significant boost from growing European demand for artificial intelligence (AI).
However, the stock's valuation has become excessively high.
10 stocks we like better than Palantir Technologies ›
Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) has been one of the top-performing stocks since the start of 2024, rising nearly 700%. It has also been a top performer in 2025, rising 80% so far. Palantir's business has been booming alongside the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race. With no signs of AI spending slowing down, investors are speculating that Palantir's stock could eventually reach a $1 trillion market capitalization.
Palantir's current valuation hovers around $320 billion, so the stock would need to more than triple to cross that threshold. But can that happen over the next decade?
Palantir offers AI-powered data analytics solutions that help decision makers make the best choice possible. Originally, Palantir began with government clients, but it has also expanded into the commercial sector over the past few years.
Although commercial revenue has grown significantly, government revenue still makes up the majority of Palantir's total revenue. In Q1, government revenue was $487 million, and on the commercial side, it was $397 million. Government revenue is also rapidly increasing, rising 45% year over year. The U.S. government increased at the same rate as international, indicating widespread adoption of Palantir's products worldwide.
However, that story is completely different on the commercial side. U.S. commercial revenue rose 71% year over year in Q1, while overall commercial revenue rose 33%. This indicates global AI adoption (specifically in Europe) lags the U.S., but that story could change over the next few years. That could rapidly accelerate and cause Palantir's impressive 39% growth rate to rise even further.
Palantir bulls point to this as a reason why the stock could reach a $1 trillion valuation by 2035. However, the bears have another key point to consider, and it could derail the entire investment thesis.
One thing that should raise a red flag for investors with Palantir's stock is its 700% rise alongside its 39% growth rate. Those two figures are completely mismatched, indicating that Palantir's stock might be overvalued.
After evaluating Palantir's price-to-sales valuation, this fact is confirmed.
Most software companies trade at a multiple of 10 to 20 times sales. The best companies with rapid growth rates can trade upwards of 30 times sales. However, Palantir's stock is more than three times that level. Achieving nearly 110 times sales is practically unheard of in the stock market, and if a stock ever reaches that valuation, it usually only does so when it's doubling or tripling its revenue year over year. Even then, some of those companies crash from a high valuation.
Even if Palantir gets a boost from rising European revenue, I don't think it's going to be enough to propel its stock to a reasonable level. Multiple years of revenue growth are already baked into the stock price. For Palantir to achieve a still very expensive but far more reasonable price tag of 30 times sales, it would require 363% revenue growth from today's levels.
As a result, I don't think Palantir can triple its stock price over the next decade because it's going to spend the first part of it growing into the extremely high valuation it has now. Investors need to be cautious because high expectations are already baked into the stock price; any misstep could cause the stock to tumble back to reality.
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Keithen Drury has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Will Palantir Be a $1 Trillion Company by 2035? was originally published by The Motley Fool
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Here's the thing, though: these are still incredible headphones with great noise canceling, comfort, features, and sound. You wouldn't want to pay full price, but buying the dip on some of the best wireless headphones ever is always a savvy move. —Ryan Waniata Google's Pixel Buds Pro 2 (9/10, WIRED Recommends) are essentially AirPods Pro for Android. They work amazingly well, with great noise canceling, good mics, and excellent sound quality. I like that they're a bit smaller other models, which makes them fit well in everybody's ears. —Parker Hall These affordable open earbuds from SoundPeats are utterly capable of everything that much more expensive options from Bose and Sony can do—play decent-sounding music while allowing you to hear the oncoming F150. Open earbuds will never be hi-fi. Just get a cheap pair like this. —Parker Hall It might shock you to hear from an A/V editor, but the Skullcandy Method 360 ANC (9/10, WIRED Recommends) are some of the best affordable headphones we've ever tested. They have Bose-powered noise canceling, great battery life, and a larger case with a clip that lets you attach it to bags. —Parker Hall Ultimate Ears is a serial contributor to our Best Bluetooth speakers list, and the Boom 4 (8/10, WIRED Recommends) is one of my favorites for its mix of smooth, balanced sound and excellent usability. From its extensive Bluetooth range to app features like a multi-band EQ and the ability to wake the speaker from rest, the Boom 4 is a stalwart companion that shrugs off dust, weather, and even serious drops without missing a beat. —Ryan Waniata These awesome, affordable AirPods Pro lookalikes come in Pikachu yellow with clear elephant trunks, and they nearly sound as good as the real deal. I love how comfortable the Nothing Ear (a) (8/10, WIRED Recommends) are thanks to silicone eartips, and the included charging case is also relatively stylish. —Parker Hall Sonos has been through some app-based tumult over the past year, but one product that has remained excellent is this Sonos Roam 2 Bluetooth speaker (9/10, WIRED Recommends). The little triangle sounds fantastic and takes a real beating. —Parker Hall JBL's Authentics 200 (9/10, WIRED Recommends) speaks both Google Assistant and Amazon Alexa so you can swap between the two for multiple tasks—especially handy if you have smart home devices from both brands. Its retro design and control knobs make it as easy on the eyes as it is to use, while its excellent sound stands with some of the best smart speakers we've tested. —Ryan Waniata The Bose Soundlink Mac (9/10, WIRED Recommends) is the ultimate modern boombox, thanks to huge dynamic drivers, massive bass, and an awesome ropelike carrying handle. It's about the size of a middle school lunchbox but packs much more power, with enough juice to last 20 hours on a single charge. —Parker Hall Getting the Wiim Amp on sale feels like double dipping on your taxes; the deal's almost too good. I tested both the original Amp and the Amp Pro (9/10, WIRED Recommends) with multiple bookshelf speaker pairs, and the performance differences are minor. Meanwhile, the standard Amp offers AirPlay while the Pro doesn't, adding to its cascade of streaming options, HDMI ARC support, and a potent power supply for a killer A/V entry point. —Ryan Waniata Jump to Section: Tech Deals, Apple, Amazon Devices, Phones, TVs, Headphones & Speakers, Kitchen, Home, Beauty & Grooming, Outdoor & Active, Travel Kitchen Deals on kitchen gear, including coffee machines, air fryers, and cookware. This is about the lowest price you can expect to find this year, or any future year, on what may be the top-selling espresso machine in the world. Breville's Barista Express is already the Goldilocks Breville when weighing cost and value among powerful, precise semiautomatic machines we recommend as the best in the game. It'll grind your beans, push out balanced shots, and froth your milk to boot, with few hitches and a long track record. —Matthew Korfhage This is the best grinder I know at this price range. It might not be your pick for espresso: the 15-grind setting doesn't offer fine enough distinctions. For that, get the Baratza ESP. But for Aeropress, drip, or French Press? This is the lowest-cost grinder that'll give you good extraction and an even grind, and it's even cheaper right now. —Matthew Korfhage The Instant Pot Pro Plus (8/10, WIRED Recommends), is a thoughtfully designed and capable multi-cooker, still our favorite multicooker WIRED has tested. Sure it's 'smart,' meaning it has an app. But it's also smart, filled with thoughtful touches like a flat bottom, interior handles, higher wattage, and preprogrammed pressure release. It's nice. And around 30 percent off. —Matthew Korfhage The Nama J2 Cold Press Juicer is my top-rated juicer. It felt revolutionary when it came out a couple years ago, and is still the best. Press the button and then forget about it. It's pretty and effective, chewing through carrots or spinach or soft berries to make nutrient-rich, tasty juice. It also makes sorbet. Slow juicers aren't cheap, but this is the cheapest I've seen this one. —Matthew Korfhage Jump to Section: Tech Deals, Apple, Amazon Devices, Phones, TVs, Headphones & Speakers, Kitchen, Home, Beauty & Grooming, Outdoor & Active, Travel Home Deals on vacuums, air purifiers, bedding, pets, smart locks, security cameras, home office furniture, and more. This is a solid, basic Dyson vacuum. It was Dyson's previous entry-level vacuum before the Digital Slim (our current budget pick), and while it's not the most recent model, it's still a great vacuum to get on a budget. It's still plenty powerful on carpet and hard flooring, and comes with three accessories and two power modes. —Nena Farrell The Qrevo S is our current Best Robot Vacuum for having a bewildering array of features—mopping and vacuuming, automatic bin emptying, and mop washing—combined with reliable navigation and a not-insane price tag. It doesn't have a camera, so it protects your privacy, and Roborock's SmartPlan also switches automatically between cleaning modes and floor surfaces in your house to clean more efficiently.—Adrienne So We like all of Tapo's other products, like security cameras, so it makes sense that we'd like the company's effective, affordable robot vacuums. The app connects easily and made a quick, accurate map of my children's bedrooms and bathroom. It also has an onboard dust bin, so you don't need to worry about the surprisingly-hard-to-find replacement dustbin bags for some of Tapo's other models. —Adrienne So This unassuming air purifier has been our top budget pick for a while, and for good reason. WIRED reviewer Lisa Wood Shapiro found it can clean a 361-square-foot room with an air exchange rate under five times an hour, its slim profile makes it easy to situate, and filter refills are both easy to find and inexpensive. —Kat Merck Perhaps the ideal outdoor security camera for Google households, the Nest Cam Outdoor has a handy magnetic mount and an expansive 130-degree field of view, and captures sharp 1080p video with HDR and night vision. It also sports a clear speaker and microphone. You only get three hours of free event history, but you can add a Nest Aware subscription ($8 a month, or $80 for the whole year) to get 30 days of event history and face recognition. —Simon Hill This two-camera kit comes with a home hub, and it's the upgrade pick for folks seeking a local, subscription-free system in our best outdoor security cameras guide. The EufyCam 3 (8/10, WIRED Recommends) has built-in solar, up to 4K video resolution, and 16 GB of local storage (expandable up to 16 TB) on the connected HomeBase 3 hub. You also get on-device people, pets, and vehicle recognition, and this system can even recognize familiar faces. —Simon Hill Offering everything you want, including crisp 2K video at 24 frames per second, two-way audio, and a compact design that includes a privacy shutter, this is the upgrade pick in our best indoor security cameras guide and it's no wonder. The Arlo app is swift to load, offers excellent notifications, and supports two-factor authentication, so you can log in with your fingerprint or face, phone permitting. We've seen discounts before but never this low. —Simon Hill Arlo ticks all the boxes with crisp 2K video, a wide 160-degree field of view, two-way audio, and direct Wi-Fi connection, and the Pro 5 (9/10, WIRED Recommends) tops our best outdoor security cameras guide. The Arlo app is swift to load, offers rich notifications, and supports two-factor authentication. The catch is a pricey subscription for subject recognition, smart alerts, and cloud storage. —Simon Hill This is my favorite budget smart lock now that there's a hub you can pair with it for a mere $20. Aqara's Smart Lock U50 (7/10, WIRED Recommends) is a great-looking lock that's affordable, high quality, and works well. Even when my hub disconnected, the U50 never faltered with remembering codes or auto-locking. I only gave it a 7 originally due to the expensive hub. —Nena Farrell Yale's Assure Lock 2 has been on my front door for about a month now, and my whole house has been pretty happy with it. I'm a fan of the fingerprint reader, which responds quickly to my touch, while my husband likes using the code entry. It's a full lock replacement that puts a keypad on the front of your door, and there are versions with and without a classic keyhole (and included key to match it). —Nena Farrell Are you a father? Do you like your father? This FLIR is WIRED's favorite thermal imaging camera. It's also the secret wish of every dad. It affixes to your phone, and it is a map to all the leaks in your life. Insulation leaks! Electrical leaks! Oh god, the possibilities. It's also a new toy, which is all that adult men ever really want. This is the best deal of the year on it.—Matthew Korfhage Why not upgrade your home with 100 feet of outdoor lighting, sporting 60 RGBIC LEDs, at a hefty discount? Like all our favorite Govee smart lights, you can choose colors, brightness, animated scenes, and automation in the jam-packed app. These IP67-rated lights are designed to be permanently attached to the outside of your home. —Simon Hill The Petkit PuraMax 2 is the automatic litter box that I recommend for most people. It's easy to use, compact, and actually smells great. This box actually smells good, with quadruple odor protection; plus, when it's time to refill with clean litter, the box rotates so the hole is on top for easier filling. At $370, this is an exceptional deal for an automatic litter box of this caliber, and it's the lowest price we'll see all year. —Molly Higgins It's no secret I love Petlibro's products, their automatic feeders and fountains are consistently my top picks. The RFID automatic feeder is a total game changer for pets in a multi-pet home. Using a pet collar tag, the feeder will only open for the specific pet wearing the collar—meaning Fido won't get the cat's food, or multiple cats will each get the exact same amount. Usually around $170, this is probably the lowest the price will drop until Black Friday. —Molly Higgins I just started testing this mini pet camera from Furbo, and I'm liking it a lot. It can be mounted, plus it has two-way audio, smart alerts, and video recaps. It also uses Furbo Nanny—an AI-powered system that watches over your pet with real-time alerts and smart insights, notifying when there's unusual activity or emergencies. At a ridiculously cheap price of $25, this is the lowest price we've ever seen for this smart pet cam. —Molly Higgins Jump to Section: Tech Deals, Apple, Amazon Devices, Phones, TVs, Headphones & Speakers, Kitchen, Home, Beauty & Grooming, Outdoor & Active, Travel Beauty & Grooming Deals on beauty tools like LED masks and electric toothbrushes. Fellow reviewer Nena Farrell is only a couple of weeks into testing HigherDose's red light mask and is already a fan. The triple-strap design doesn't squeeze the bananas out of your head (her words), and it beams red and near-infrared light (630 and 830 nanometers) that's designed to boost collagen and reduce inflammation. It's comfortable, cordless, and so far, the battery holds up. Normally $349, it's 20 percent off for Prime Day. —Boutayna Chokrane This old-school straightener is like the Honda Accord of hair tools. It's not sexy and will probably embarrass the teens in your house, but it's been around for years, it will continue to be around for years, and it will get you from point A to point B reliably and with a minimum of fuss. —Kat Merck The Philips Multigroom 7000 series is a versatile classic among the best beard trimmers— a beautiful beast with admirable heft and a broad set of guards for every season, face, and beard. The mix of close shave, durability, versatility, and simple, good construction makes it the one I turn to most often, when I'm not testing other trimmers. This is the durable titanium version, available at a nice 20 percent price break. —Matthew Korfhage The Oral-B Pro 1000 is my favorite toothbrush from the company, but at $60, the iO Series 3 is worth considering. The 14-day battery life surpasses that of the Pro 1000, and the motor is quieter and feels gentler on sensitive gums. Plus, the sleek finish looks way more modern on my counter. —Boutayna Chokrane This is the best vibrator for stimulating initial arousal. It's a flexible labia vibe that delivers sensation to the entire vulva rather than just the clitoris. There are four motors to increase arousal and lubrication to the entire region, and there's even an app for hands-free action. —Louryn Strampe You don't need to believe all of the wild health hype from shower filter makers. But here's what this Canopy will actually do: It's one of the minority of shower filters that actually removes chlorine compounds down to undetectable levels. (Yes, I tested.) This means no chlorine drying out your skin, or removing hair dye. It's also a nice-looking showerhead, on sale for nearly 30 percent off. —Matthew Korfhage Jump to Section: Tech Deals, Apple, Amazon Devices, Phones, TVs, Headphones & Speakers, Kitchen, Home, Beauty & Grooming, Outdoor & Active, Travel Outdoor & Active Deals on fitness trackers, smartwatches, and more. People ask me what fitness tracker to get all the time. Given their requirements, I have told people more often than not to just get the new Oura Ring 4. I wear mine almost every day; it's the tracker I use to check other fitness trackers. The battery life is longer than a wrist wearable and Oura frequently issues meaningful, interesting software updates. This is the first time it's gone on sale. —Adrienne So I personally persuaded many parents to buy the Fitbit Ace for their kids. The watch incentivizes kids to charge and wear their smartwatch with a gaming platform called Fitbit Arcade, and includes data in the very reasonable $10/month subscription plan. You can check your kids' location and you can send each other texts (or in my son's case, just a bunch of poop emojis).—Adrienne So It's been a few years since the Sense 2 came out; nevertheless, it's still the Fitbit that's best for serious health tracking and the one that was probably meant as a competitor to the Apple Watch. Like the Apple Watch, it has an ECG; it also has a sensor that monitors your stress to remind you to calm down on the spot. —Adrienne So The Instinct is one of Garmin's most popular lines because it offers full backcountry functionality for a cheaper price than the high-end Fenix line, with better battery life and a fun, chunky, retro aesthetic. The Instinct got updated this year, but Garmin's watches age very well and I like how tiny and slim this particular version is. —Adrienne So Amazfit's trackers have become so much more attractive and accurate over the past few years, and the Amazfit Balance looks pretty much like a Galaxy Watch6. Since I wrote my review, Amazfit has updated its privacy policy and made it actually available. —Adrienne So The Pixel Watch 3 is my favorite Android smartwatch right now, though a successor will likely arrive in a few months. It's gorgeous, and will work with any Android phone, There are two sizes to choose from, and the 45-mm variant is more worth your time largely because it delivers better battery life. You can eke out a little more than a day with it, all while meticulously tracking your health—even a loss of pulse event, which is something no other smartwatch can do. —Julian Chokkattu Samsung's flagship smartwatch for half the price? This one's a no-brainer if you're in Samsung's ecosystem and you don't mind the large size of the company's Galaxy Watch Ultra. The dual-band GPS is accurate, and the health and activity monitoring features are precise, plus the battery lasts a little more than two days. It has a titanium case and is rated to 10 ATM/IP68, so you don't have to baby the thing. —Julian Chokkattu Camping water, and outdoor water, is often gross water—sitting too long in the cooler with pine needles for some reason, running free in the outdoors but maybe unsafe, or pulled from spigots of unknown plumbing. This Lifestraw is a WIRED favorite. It makes water safer, and makes it taste better—and will purify up to a thousand gallons. It's half off. Buy two. —Matthew Korfhage Do you really need a satellite communicator? I've never used one, but if I were going to, this is the one I'd use. It's small, light (3.5 ounces), and the battery lasts a long time. It connects to the Iridium satellite network, so you can send messages and check in with loved ones from just about anywhere. There are also extra features like waypoints and interval tracking, and it integrates well with compatible Garmin watches. —Scott Gilbertson The DJI Action 4 camera (8/10, WIRED Recommends) was a fantastic action camera. The newer DJI Action 5 trumps it in a number of ways, but if you're on a budget, this is still a great choice and it integrates well into the DJI ecosystem. The magnetic mounting system remains the best we've tried, the menu system makes switching between modes a snap, and the resulting photos and video are great. —Scott Gilbertson Not only is this affordable little guy a top pick on Reddit, it's also our top pick for the Best Walking Pads. It feels comfortable underfoot, has a good weight capacity, and most important, is easy to assemble and sync with the companion app. —Adrienne So Need a way to get around town quickly? The E2 Pro is a nice entry-level scooter that cruises at 15 miles per hour, and its 41-pound weight is manageable. Don't expect a ton of range. There are turn signals, making it safer when you need to make turns at intersections, and it does an OK job on small slopes. —Julian Chokkattu I recently dropped this scooter lower on my list after testing the newer Max G3, but that's only because the Max G3 outpaces it in a few ways and costs nearly the same. But at this discounted price, the ZT3 Pro is a great buy. I got 16 miles of range, and you'll probably get much more than that if you're shorter than 6'4'. —Julian Chokkattu Jump to Section: Tech Deals, Apple, Amazon Devices, Phones, TVs, Headphones & Speakers, Kitchen, Home, Beauty & Grooming, Outdoor & Active, Travel Travel Deals on jump starters, power stations, and more. It only takes one mishap to turn yourself into a full jump-starter convert. Why were we ever OK waiting three hours in a dead car for some dude in jean shorts to just… pull one of these $100 jumpstarters out of his trunk? This Noco saved former WIRED reviewer Eric Ravenscraft on a road trip. A similar device got me out of a jam in Delaware. Don't get stuck in Delaware: Buy this on sale. —Matthew Korfhage DJI's debut power station puts out 2,200 watts (2,600 watts surge), has two USB-C PD 3.1 ports (140 watts), and boasts DJI's proprietary SDC ports. It charges small gadgets, appliances, or tools, and it's a great choice for folks with DJI drones, as it fast-charges most models. It gets noisy with a lot of gadgets charging, and cable and bag accessories cost extra, but it still claims a place in our best portable power stations guide. —Simon Hill
Bloomberg
22 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
China Wants 115,000 Nvidia Chips to Power Data Centers in the Desert
By Andy Lin Mackenzie Hawkins Colum Murphy James Mayger Graphics by Jin Wu Adrian Leung July 8, 2025 Yiwu Advanced Computing Cluster There's a construction boom under way on the edge of the Gobi desert in Xinjiang, where cranes are at work in fields of rock and the sound of jackhammers fills the air. Here in the modest county of Yiwu, China is building out its ambitions to lead the world in artificial intelligence. The futuristic structures are data centers that the operators seek to equip with high-end American semiconductors — chips that the US government doesn't want its geopolitical rival to obtain. A Bloomberg News analysis of investment approvals, tender documents and company filings shows that Chinese firms aim to install more than 115,000 Nvidia Corp. AI chips in some three dozen data centers across the country's western deserts. Operators in Xinjiang intend to house the lion's share of those processors in a single compound — which, if they can pull it off, could be used to train foundational large-language models like those of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek. The complex as envisioned would still be dwarfed by the scale of AI infrastructure in the US, but it would significantly boost China's computing prowess as President Xi Jinping pushes for technological breakthroughs. Such a project also would raise serious concerns for officials in Washington, who restricted leading-edge Nvidia chip sales to China in 2022 over worries that advanced AI could give Beijing a military edge. Yet the Chinese documents contain no explanation of how companies plan to acquire the chips, which cannot be legally purchased without licenses from the US government, permits that haven't been given. The companies listed in the filings, state officials and central government representatives in Beijing declined to comment when asked to explain. To gauge whether Chinese entities could realistically procure that quantity of restricted processors, Bloomberg News spoke with more than a dozen people who've been involved in or privy to US government investigations into the matter, as well as several people with direct knowledge of the black market in China. None of those familiar with the US probes said they previously knew of the data center buildout in Xinjiang. All said that while they believe there are indeed banned chips in China, they're not aware of an illicit trade network sophisticated enough to procure more than 100,000 such processors and direct that hardware to a centralized location. But the US government doesn't appear to have reached a consensus on the number of restricted Nvidia chips currently in the Asian country. Most of the people interviewed for this story said they were unaware of an agreed-upon estimate, while some offered rough numbers that differed by tens of thousands of processors. Two senior Biden administration officials said they believe there are around 25,000 banned Nvidia chips in China — a number that, one of them added, would not be terribly concerning. That volume of semiconductors, assuming they are integrated into servers and designated for the same facility, could power at most one mid-sized data center. The US Commerce Department — whose Bureau of Industry and Security, known as BIS, is tasked with implementing and enforcing chip trade restrictions — did not answer detailed questions for this story, including how many banned Nvidia chips the Trump administration believes are in China, nor whether Trump officials were previously aware of the projects in Xinjiang. 'Posting a web page asking about restricted products is not the same as successfully licensing, building, and operating a datacenter,' Nvidia said in an emailed response to questions about the Chinese companies' claims. 'Datacenters are massive and complex systems, making smuggling extremely difficult, and we do not provide any support or repairs for restricted products.' The California-based company also said that 'trying to cobble together a datacenter from smuggled, previous-generation products makes no business or engineering sense,' especially since chips and servers made by Huawei Technologies Co. are widely available in China. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's chief executive officer, made his position clear at a May conference in Taipei: 'There's no evidence of any AI chip diversion,' he said. Yet the head of BIS pointedly contradicted that assertion just weeks later, telling US lawmakers that there is clearly a problem with AI chip smuggling. 'It's happening,' said Commerce Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler. 'It's a fact.' Although Kessler didn't mention Nvidia by name, the company is by far the dominant provider of such semiconductors. Kessler also said that US efforts to restrict Huawei's chipmaking capabilities will keep China's output at just 200,000 AI processors this year — a number far short of domestic demand. To be sure, Bloomberg News has not found evidence that China has amassed, or can amass, 115,000 banned Nvidia chips — nor evidence that smaller volumes of restricted semiconductors that US officials believe are in the country have been directed to centralized locations. And yet in Yiwu, the construction goes on. Looming out of the desert, a tower the height of the Golden Gate Bridge radiates an intense light that pierces the surrounding dust clouds. Arrays of reflectors focus the sun's energy onto a receiver that allows the daytime heat of the arid plains to be stored, ensuring continuous power generation. It's one main reason for the choice of Yiwu, just to the south over a mountain pass. On the barren hill behind one new building stands a wall with a slogan picked out in red Chinese letters two meters high: 'Data-electricity fusion shows great promise.' Xinjiang, and especially the Hami region which includes Yiwu County, is rich in wind and solar energy, as well as abundant in coal, offering a ready source of affordable power. Local governments there are at the forefront of a state strategy to take advantage of those energy resources — along with cheap land and cool weather at altitude, helping counter the heat generated by racks of servers — to meet the AI computing-power demand of more economically developed regions such as Shanghai and Shenzhen. Xinjiang, China's Major Hub for Renewable Energy Rich in wind and solar energy resources, Hami in eastern Xinjiang has become one of China's largest renewable power bases On a midweek day in March, workers loaded windmill blades onto the back of trucks traveling the road between the prefectural capital of Hami City and Yiwu, over bleak terrain past occasional camels grazing, and through a new tunnel leading out to a plain with views of snow-capped mountains. The main road into town leads past the first data center, still under construction, with a man welding from his perch on metal scaffolding. Hami is best known for its sweet melons, and Yiwu claims to be the site of the last battle on the mainland of the Chinese civil war in 1949. There's a monument downtown dedicated to a horse that played a role in the final engagement between Communist forces and nationalists loyal to Chiang Kai-shek. The authorities in Xinjiang are particularly suspicious of foreigners due to Western allegations of human-rights abuses against ethnic Uyghurs. Interview requests sent to eight data center operators in Yiwu were ignored, rejected or agreed to and then cancelled at short notice. The Xinjiang government and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the central government ministry overseeing data center development, didn't reply to Bloomberg requests for comment. The most important part of a giant data center is relatively small. Nvidia dominates the market for so-called AI accelerators, highly coveted components that have propelled the chipmaker's valuation to nearly $4 trillion. The processors are connected together in giant arrays numbering tens of thousands and used to sift through mountains of data to create new computer code that can in many ways approximate human intelligence. The US barred China from importing Nvidia's best chips in October 2022, a month before OpenAI's ChatGPT debut roiled the tech industry and sparked a global race that now includes DeepSeek among its top players. Washington several times has ratcheted up those curbs, restricting sales to China of a variety of advanced semiconductors and the machines used to make them — with additional sanctions levied on specific Chinese tech companies. That sweeping effort, which dates back to Trump's first term, has become a primary source of tension with Beijing — one that Chinese officials repeatedly raised in recent trade talks with the US after the Trump administration imposed punitive tariffs. 'All the greatest chips in the world are American, right? So of course they want them,' Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC last month, speaking about China's position during negotiations in London. 'And of course we said 'absolutely not.'' The Xinjiang effort suggests that China's AI ambitions — which hinge in large part on locally produced chips from the likes of Huawei — still include some hope of accessing restricted Nvidia hardware too. Project approval documents show that in the fourth quarter of 2024, local governments in Xinjiang and in neighboring Qinghai province green-lit a total of 39 data centers that intend to use more than 115,000 Nvidia processors. All of the companies stated in their investment plans that they aim to obtain H100 or H200 chips, two Nvidia GPUs, or graphics processing units, that were the industrial standard for training large language models such as OpenAI's GPT4o and Google's Gemini through last year. Nvidia this year debuted a new, more advanced model — dubbed the Grace Blackwell — that is banned along with the H100 and H200 from export to China without a US government license. Seven Xinjiang projects that aim to use those processors had started construction or won open tenders for AI computing service as of June 2025, according to tender documents obtained by Bloomberg. One operator says it's already using advanced hardware facilities to support cloud access to DeepSeek's R1 model, according to local news reports. Still, the provincial projects' description of their intended computing capabilities may be somewhat aspirational: Local party officials try to signal to Beijing that they are working toward national priorities, but Chinese companies frequently launch initiatives that are never completed. One of the largest projects involves a company ultimately controlled by Nyocor Co., a Tianjin-based energy firm mainly engaged in solar and wind power. It proposes to build a data center powered by 625 H100 servers, one of the banned Nvidia models. It would start with 250 servers in the first phase. That's 2,000 H100 chips. Tender documents show the Nyocor project has started installing servers and other equipment at the data center building, and has asked China Bester Group, a Hubei-based IT company, to supply the hardware. Unlike the investment approval documents, which explicitly state the company wants to use H100s, the tenders don't specify whether the installed servers run on Nvidia chips or some alternative. The amount of the investment was not disclosed. Nyocor is selling its computing power to Infinigence AI, one of the largest AI infrastructure companies in China. The company has raised one billion yuan since creation. "Our goal is to turn computing service into facilities like water and gas, readily available when developers turn on the switch," said Infinigence's CEO in an interview with local media in September 2024. Bloomberg estimates that in order to complete all of the 39 projects as outlined, companies would need to figure out a way to purchase more than 14,000 data servers or 115,000 Nvidia H100 or H200 chips, both banned for China-based entities. Bloomberg estimates these chips would be worth billions of dollars based on black market prices in China. Nyocor declined to comment. China Bester and China Energy Investment didn't reply to requests for comment. Infinigence AI couldn't be reached for a response. Around 70% of computing power planned by the identified projects is in a single compound set up by the local government in Xinjiang. That makes the region — the epicenter of Western charges of Chinese rights abuses including forced labor and religious persecution — pivotal to China's efforts to seize the lead from the US in a sphere seen as key to future global technological, and geopolitical, dominance. Even if successful, the Xinjiang complex would only involve the number of Nvidia chips that one major hyperscaler — a term for massive data center operators like Microsoft Corp. and Amazon Web Services — deploys in a single week, according to data Nvidia provided on a recent earnings call. Still, Chinese companies like DeepSeek are beginning to show they can do more with less. 'The gap between leading US and Chinese AI labs is closing,' said Kevin Xu, a tech investor and founder of US-based Interconnected Capital, who put it at around three months. Players like DeepSeek, which says it trained its R1 model using less-advanced Nvidia chips, are 'very serious and sincere' about pursuing artificial general intelligence, Xu said. The fact that leading Chinese models are open source means they spread faster globally, he added, while noting that diffusion is hard to track: 'Beijing sees this trend as a source of technological soft power worth embracing.' DeepSeek and other Chinese AI startups have already expressed interest in collaborating with the data center projects in Xinjiang, according to an employee of one of the largest investors in the Yiwu sites. That employee, whose name has been withheld to protect their identity, said in a message exchange that their company will invest more than 5 billion yuan ($700 million) in data center projects there in 2025 and 2026. China's data center industry is expected to surpass 300 billion yuan in scale this year, according to the Securities Times. Chinese entities are collectively expected to invest nearly that amount on an annual basis by 2028, according to the China Communications Industry Association — a more than threefold increase from a half-decade prior. Xinjiang has already brought its first 'intelligent computing center' online, and constructed 24,000 petaflops of computing power for demand from the logistics hub of Chongqing, Chairman of the People's Government of Xinjiang Erkin Tuniyaz said in an annual government work report in January, without specifying the type of chips installed. The cited computing power is equivalent to roughly 12,000 server-integrated Nvidia H100s. Prospective investors in such projects are attracted with the promise of free electricity worth up to 20% of total power costs. Data center operators also can access government support ranging from one-off payments for construction to operation incentives for up to five years, depending on company size, according to local government documents reviewed by Bloomberg. Experts in 'green computing' areas are also eligible for favorable terms on accommodation, children's education and research funding. From a standing start, 'Xinjiang's intelligent computing has achieved a historic breakthrough,' Tuniyaz said in January. China's Planned Computing Power Corridors China's East Data West Computing initiative brings together AI data centers and computing power demands Policymakers in Washington for years have been aware that limiting China's access to US technology is not as simple as writing a regulation. Not two months after the chip restrictions took effect, Chinese officials caught a woman hiding forbidden hardware in a baby bump. The American AI company Anthropic recently said smugglers have packed GPUs next to live lobsters. Nvidia has dismissed both examples as 'tall tales' that ignore the complexity of building data centers, which require operational support to run properly — support that Nvidia does not provide for restricted products in China. Still, conversations with people privy to illicit semiconductor transactions, as well as media reports from a range of outlets, indicate that smuggling networks have gotten more sophisticated over time. Those stories — which have helped inform US investigations, people familiar with the matter said — have cited examples ranging from dozens of illicit processors to more than a thousand. Potential smuggling in Malaysia has become a big concern for the Trump administration, which plans to restrict Nvidia sales there to halt possible diversion to China, and also has asked Malaysian authorities to crack down on the issue — a request the government has said it'll heed. Officials in Singapore, meanwhile, are prosecuting three men for alleged fraud in exports to Malaysia of AI servers that likely contained advanced Nvidia processors — bound for an unknown final destination. In response to queries about Washington's export control plans, Malaysia's Ministry of Investment, Trade & Industry said the country will 'act firmly against any company or individual should there be strong evidence' of misuse or diversion of advanced tech. The ministry added that Malaysia welcomes a dialogue with the US and other nations to 'clarify any misunderstandings and to strengthen mutual trust.' Trump officials are separately investigating whether DeepSeek may have accessed restricted chips through intermediaries in Singapore, and a bipartisan congressional committee focused on China recently requested Nvidia's customer data for 11 Asian countries, related to concerns that DeepSeek may have circumvented US export controls. (None of the documents viewed or interviews conducted through the course of this investigation indicated any link between the Xinjiang projects and supply chains in Singapore or Malaysia. Nvidia is not accused of any wrongdoing in Singapore's probe or in the US investigation into DeepSeek.) Read More: Lutnick Urges Tougher Enforcement of Export Curbs on China Nvidia consistently has said it abides by all US rules, but Huang has made no secret that he doesn't like Washington's strategy. Years of curbs — including on crucial semiconductor manufacturing equipment — have 'failed' to contain Huawei's rise, he said at the May conference in Taipei. Nvidia now sees Huawei as a formidable competitor, and the company worries its Chinese rival will continue to improve and gain market share — unless the US government allows Nvidia to compete on Huawei's home turf. Washington isn't buying it. The Trump administration has already further limited the types of chips Nvidia can sell in China, at a $5.5 billion hit to the company. White House AI Advisor Sriram Krishnan, asked about Huang's urge to lift those curbs, said that 'there is still bipartisan and broad concern about what can happen to these GPUs once they're physically inside' the Asian country. Meanwhile, Chinese companies continue to build their data centers, a sign they expect to receive AI chips from somewhere. Two such construction projects were approved by the Qinghai government in December 2024, with a total investment of 13.5 billion yuan, documents from Qinghai's investment review website show. The companies applying for construction permits for both projects were founded that same month. China's company registry services show both entities can be traced by shareholding data to the same group of controlling companies: one real estate firm in Qinghai named Qinghai Borong Group and one AI tech company in Sichuan called Chengdu Qingshu Technology. They didn't respond to requests for comment. Neither is on Nvidia's official resellers list. Related tickers: NVDA:US (NVIDIA Corp) 40978Z:CH (Huawei Technologies Co Ltd) 600821:CH (NYOCOR Co Ltd) 603220:CH (China Bester Group Telecom Co Ltd) Additional reporting by Ian KingYuan GaoEdwin ChanJenny Leonard Edited by Alan CrawfordJane PongPeter Elstrom Photos edited by Yuki Tanaka Methodology Bloomberg News obtained the investment plan documents from Xinjiang and Qinghai's government websites exhibiting investment approvals, the description of which specify the investing company's name, date of approval and how many H100/200 servers are to be installed or the planned total computing power. Bloomberg cross-checked the company details in the documents with China's company registry information to identify their ultimate parents, and looked them up in the tender databases in China for announced procurement and tender information. Bloomberg reporters also found details of Yiwu's AI development project when conducting reporting in the town, with billboards showcasing the industrial park's master plan. Terms of Service Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information Trademarks Privacy Policy Careers Made in NYC Advertise Ad Choices Help ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved.
