Mitch Cohen, Shayne O'Cass tips and analysis for Royal Randwick on Saturday

News.com.au

3 days ago

Racing writers Mitch Cohen and Shayne O'Cass present their race-by-race tips and analysis for the 10-race meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
MITCH'S BEST BET
Race 10 No.6 PUNTIN
MITCH'S BEST VALUE
Race 8 No.7 THE BLACK CLOUD
SHAYNO'S BEST BET
Race 8 No.4 CIGAR FLICK
SHAYNO'S BEST VALUE
Race 9 No.10 RANTAN
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Shayne O'Cass: We should start by pointing out the rail placement for the day; 11m out from the 1000m to the winning post; 8m the remainder. What effect that has, if any at all, will become evident pretty early on. For the record in the first I am eager to see how NAZWAH (7) makes the transition from Gosford to Randwick. Nazwah is out of a very good filly who has turned into a very good broodmare namely Najoom who has already thrown stakes-winners Charm Stone and Najmaty and the way this filly might get to black-type herself.
Mitch Cohen: On speed could be the place to be with the rail where it is but we will wait a couple of races to see how it plays out. I am with NAZWAH (7) too. Interesting to hear Peter Snowden say her debut win took him a bit by surprise. It was a very impressive performance and I doubt she will be getting under anyone's guard on the weekend. SHAGGY (1) has to be a chance if he can replicate his early two-year-old form. It wasn't so long ago that he was a hot favourite in the Group 2 Skyline Stakes and a genuine Golden Slipper prospect.
Wow, look at Nazwah go! 😮
An impressive win to the @SnowdenRacing1 - trained filly at @gosford_races with @tomo_sherry in the saddle! ðŸ'¨ @EmiratesPark pic.twitter.com/4eniVFjH8d
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 10, 2025
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Shayno: KINGSTON CHARM (2) is indeed a member of David Hains' epic family that delivered the fastest Melbourne Cup winner ever, Kingston Rule. As for Kingston Charm, she is much more a miler than a two-miler; and make that a 'Randwick Miler' Nosey Parker is known for getting back and charging late mostly in 1200m races but he actually ran a pretty respectable race at Wyong at his only 1600m run when Willie Pike rode him. CALLISTEMON (9) is the obvious, SUNSOURCE (8) might be the value at $7 the place.
Mitch: We are in agreement again. I thought KINGSTON CHARM (2) was desperately unlucky not to win the other day and she finds herself in a very similar race here. She's ready for a peak performance third-up. CALLISTEMON (9) is another one that didn't have a lot go her way the other day. She's a chance but the outside draw could make things ugly. FORECASTER (3) is drawn to get every possible on speed.
Charmed!
Kingston Charm takes out the opener at Randwick today! @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/EdM9HwQbVu
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) March 9, 2024
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Shayno: Typhoon Tracy relation IN SUMMER (6) has three wins, three seconds and a third from eight starts. She was third last start in a Highway here but was, IMHO, the moral victor. The two that beat her had all the favours whereas he had none. A lot of that goes for RED RAGS TO BULLS (7) too who was fifth in that on-pace Highway. How could those two NOT run 1800m? OFF THE SCALE (8) has already won over 'the Tchaikovsky distance' (1812m) by four then won at Scone by three over 1700m.
Mitch: IN SUMMER (6) went straight in the blackbook following her strong third in a Highway race at a mile last time. She has never been tried at the 1800m but off that last run you'd expect her to lap it up. RED RAGS TO BULLS (7) is a descendant of an SA Oaks runner-up so the 1800m could prove right up her alley too. Matt Dunn can never be discounted in a Highway either so FULL OF SINCERITY (2) deserves respect. He's dropping back 430m in trip but this is significantly easier than a Grafton Cup.
• Big Dance lure not enough to sway Pfieffer
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Shayno: CODETTA (1) has been most unlucky this preparation Mitchy, You could make a sane case to argue that this half-sister to Riff Rocket could have won any or all of her three starts this time in but for wide barriers and track bias and so on. Barrier 4 this time, 2kgs off, even luck she wins IMHO. Could it be the same trifecta as the July 5 race here with GOLDEN STRAAND (8) (runner-up that day) and DIDDLE DUMPLING (2) (who won) both fronting up again? Sure can. Outside of those, one has to acknowledge that SIGNOR TORTONI (3) is on a hat-trick.
Mitch: GLORIOUS MOMENTS (6) has been given a month to get over his excellent first-up success at Canterbury. The smart son of Brutal hadn't raced for 59 weeks heading into that and should be advantaged by the added break between runs. He's untapped. STARDEEL (4) deserves consideration on the strength of his consistent preparation. The 1300m looks ideal for him now. SIGNOR TORTONI (3) is going through his grades nicely and should be competitive again.
“I think he is the best horse we've had for a long while.�
Co-trainer Greg Lee believes Glorious Moments can deliver on that high opinion when he turns out on home turf at Royal Randwick on Saturday. Story: @MitchRWCohen ðŸ'‡ https://t.co/MXL4RTLqfG
— Racenet (@RacenetTweets) July 24, 2025
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Shayno: In case you forgot Mitchy, I was declaring RUBY FLYER (1) first-up in the Winter Stakes but the fact that he was $41 to $51 suggested that she would need the run. The long and short of it was that he was 11th of 13 but only beaten six-lengths and I thought he ran through the line with purpose. Loves the 1600m and loves Randwick. One has to be (totally) forgiving of Big Dance placegetter SUPER HELPFUL (2) first-up given he bombed the start. OH DIAMOND LIL (4) is bombproof.
Mitch: No one could doubt your loyalty Shayno! I found it impossible to go around OH DIAMOND LIL (4). I know David Pfieffer was considering the Coffs Harbour Cup but with the rail out, this looks like an ideal race for her. She will settle close to the speed and I am tipping she will be too hard to run down. ABERLOUR (9) is another one that will find herself on speed and was good doing it from out in front over 1800m last time. RUBY FLYER (1) is best of the rest.
She's back on the winners list! ðŸ'�
Jason Collett lifts Oh Diamond Lil over the line to take out race 8 at Randwick! @DavidPfieffer pic.twitter.com/IzhFK0xK2C
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 12, 2025
• Thompson has strong hand to cap off outstanding season
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Shayno: Tasmanian Oaks runner-up VERY SEWREEL (9) was my Black Booker from the July 12 meeting here even though she ran ninth of 13. That was her first run for Bjorn Baker but she is familiar with HQ given she came from Waterhouse/Bott. Terrible bias on the day, she has to be marked 'up' for what was an already honourable return over 1400m; 1800m this time. Boom. SHE'S UNUSUAL (5) is a last start track/distance winner. Nettoyer's little (half) sister CHANGING COLOURS (7) had no chance with the bias here two weeks back.
Mitch: SHE'S UNUSUAL (5) won't get the same luxury out in front that she was afforded last start but she can win again. She gets a great draw to settle close to the speed and only has to carry a kilo more after Ben Osmond's 2kg claim. PIGGYBACK (8) has been a tad frustrating in recent starts but hasn't had a lot of luck either. She is at peak fitness and will be in the mix again. BRIGHT RED (10) is a consistent mare but doesn't win all the often.
She's nice... unusual!
She's Unusual wins in style for @JohnOSheaRacing with @TommyBerry21 in the saddle! 🤩 @aus_turf_club @OTIRacing pic.twitter.com/I6zeg8TBBo
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 21, 2025
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Shayno: Not sure if GENTLY ROLLED (7) turns up on Saturday or is saved for another day given the wide draw and the rail placement. The brief version from last start is 'beaten by the bias'. UNSTOPABULL (6) 's trainer Chris Waller mastered the art of the back-up a long time ago Mitchy. The stats say he has an 18.2 per cent winning strike-rate with horses backing up within 7 days and that increases to 46.6 per cent when placings are added. One more thing, Unstopabull had no luck last weekend.
Mitch: SACRED ROCKS (4) would be odds on if she drew a gate. She's the clear class runner and only needs to overcome another wide draw here. I am convinced she is a stakes quality mare and she's unlucky not to be three from three this preparation. DRIFT NET (9) is drawn to get on speed favours from barrier one. She is going to be the one the favourite needs to catch. UNSTOPABULL (6) will run his typical race and be the best of the closers.
Sacred Rocks storms home on the outside to win the last at Rosehill! 🚀 @CMaherRacing @djgibbons22 pic.twitter.com/Cb4nSBxURl
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 14, 2025
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Shayno: We all use the term 'unlucky' a lot, sometimes too much Mitchy but seriously, how unlucky was CIGAR FLICK (4) the other day! I know she is not everyone's cup of tea, for some she is poison, but honestly and truly, if the best Cigar Flick shows up, she has to be in the finish. STORM THE RAMPARTS (1) is '211212' this preparation, and I'm tipping Cigar Flick! The world's gone mad! But one last time and if she gets rolled this time with no good reason, it's goodbye.
Mitch: I think THE BLACK CLOUD (7), albeit it not a huge price, still present some nice value around the $6 quote. She is a model of consistency with two close seconds already to her name this prep. If the rain hits Sydney, that's only going to help her cause. BUNDEENA (11) looked the winner a long way out first-up. He will be poised pounce from a good draw. STORM THE RAMPARTS (1) has to go in the quaddie. He's flying and has shown big weights are no concern.
The Black Cloud wins and wins well for punters in the last! @ProvenTbreds @PrideRacing pic.twitter.com/vUn7Lm4nmG
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) January 17, 2024
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Shayno: RANTAN (10) has been incredibly unlucky (there's that word again) this whole three start campaign. Unless this rail placement spoils it for backmarkers, I am working on the wide barrier being favourable, or at very least, not disadvantageous to her winning prospects. APACHE BREEZE (18) is $9 the place which is an inviting price about a horse in form and nearing a win. Like him at Randwick with its big straight.
Mitch: I went looking for a different angle away from the favourites and landed on RANTAN (10) too. She will need the likes of ZOURIPPER (15) and REGIMENTAL COLOURS (12) to set a genuine tempo up front to get her chance but if she gets clear air late, she will be finishing strong. CASSIEL (3) is racing well and his racing pattern should help him negate the wide draw. He's got the form man Tom Sherry aboard too. LORDSTER (7) is a cheeky hope at double figures.
Rantan loops the field to win Race 4 at Warwick Farm for @RonQuinton! pic.twitter.com/phlAXsSroN
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) December 18, 2024
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Shayno: KING RATEL (9) is perhaps not a guaranteed starter given the draw, but he is on top for me if he comes otherwise it is as open as the Heads – like all good Get Out Stakes should be. Maybe MIRACLE SPIN (3)? Encouraged by the trial. TRAVOLTA (5) wants 1800m now, big time. PUNTIN (6) just keeps on running good races and is 'Bjorn in the last!'
Mitch: Saving the best to last Shayno and that's PUNTIN (6). This bloke couldn't run a bad race if he tried, running second, first and second this prep. He has been well prepared for a crack at 1800m here. Provided he avoids another slow getaway, I think he's going to take a power of beating. MIRACLE SPIN (3) is an interesting runner. Matt Smith has wasted no time, going first-up over 1800m. He's raced well and the same track and trip before. The Waller pair of PURE ALPHA (7) and KAZALARK (11) are in the mix.