Hurricane season warning signs pile up. Brace for a dangerous August.

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The hurricane map in the Atlantic Ocean may be nearly blank now, but forecasters say that may not last much longer, as several signs point to an uptick in activity across the basin.
"The tropical environment should become more conducive for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next few weeks," said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach in a July 24 email to USA TODAY.
WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry agreed with this prediction, telling USA TODAY that "we're already seeing longer-range forecast models start to perk up... The deep Atlantic tropical waves coming from Africa have been peppier this week, and July 24's long-range forecast models jumped from a generally quiet next 15 days to a much busier look for the first part of August."
Has it been a slow start to season?
With three named tropical storms (Andrea, Barry and Chantal) so far, the number of storms is actually above average for this time of year. "Currently, we're above-normal for named storms but below normal for all other metrics," Klotzbach said.
One of those metrics is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a key measurement of the severity of a hurricane season. ACE measures the total wind energy produced by a season of tropical storms and hurricanes. It measures the intensity and duration of storms, and gives a better indication of overall activity than simply counting the number of storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
By that measurement, this is the slowest start to an Atlantic season since 2009, as the three storms that formed were all rather weak, though Chantal did cause some deadly flooding in North Carolina.
'Approaching a pivot point'
The season is about to heat up, Lowry said, as August is the month when activity usually ramps up.
Lowry said that "despite the slow start we're approaching a pivot point in the Atlantic. Hurricanes aren't common in June and July. They happen, of course, but there are usually tall hurdles to overcome to get there."
However, he added "that's not the case in August, September, and the first part of October. Those hurdles are a lot shorter so the right window can get you a big hurricane in a hurry," he said.
What does the rest of July look like for development in the Atlantic?
"Things look pretty quiet overall," Andy Hazelton, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, told USA TODAY in an e-mail. "There are some stronger waves starting to show up in the Central Atlantic, but right now, dry and sinking air is making development tough. There's another wave coming off (Africa) that may have a slight chance of development in about a week or so near the Caribbean Islands," he said.
A slow July isn't unusual: "The season is usually pretty quiet through July," Klotzbach noted. "On average, we've got over 95% of major hurricane activity left to go and still about 93% of ACE left to go. On average, our first hurricane forms in the Atlantic on August 11."
What's the forecast for the first couple weeks of August?
Hazelton explained that "large-scale conditions should become a little more favorable as a Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse crosses the Pacific and moves into the Atlantic, enhancing large-scale rising motion and reducing shear. Conditions should especially become more favorable the 2nd-3rd week of August, which aligns pretty well with the long-term climatology of when the Atlantic starts to become more active."
Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse: The 2025 hurricane season is off to a perplexing start
"So in short, July should end with little fanfare, but we'll need to watch for an uptick in activity come the first and second week of August," Lowry said.
What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation?
Something to be watching over the next few weeks is the passage of the rising branch of the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO, largely a nonplayer so far this hurricane season, Lowry explained to USA TODAY.
The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, noted Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Jon Gottschalck in an online report. The MJO influences tropical cyclone activity in both the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins during the Northern Hemisphere summer.
"As we head into early August, the Madden-Julian Oscillation should be moving into more favorable phases for Atlantic hurricane activity as well," Klotzbach said. "Typically phases 1-3 are when the Atlantic really ramps up." He said the latest European model forecast has the MJO moving into phase 1 the first week in August.
Are waters warm enough for hurricanes to develop?
Hurricanes need warm water to form, preferably 79 degrees or above, and water temperatures in a key section of the Atlantic are starting to warm up:
"One of the biggest changes I've observed in recent weeks is a considerable warming of the so-called Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic above its seasonal averages," Lowry said. "To open the hurricane season in June, waters across this bellwether part of the Atlantic where most of our strongest hurricanes get their start were running average to even below average."
He said that during this past week, MDR water temperatures have surged to the 7th warmest in the satellite record (back to 1981), running only slightly cooler than 2017 and 2005 at this point in the season. At the same time, he said the belt of water just north of the tropics has cooled since the start of the season, creating a more conducive orientation that favors rising air and storminess in the tropical Atlantic.
"The central MDR looks reasonably primed for development," noted Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in a Substack post.
What's the status of Saharan Dust? How about the Bermuda High?
Dust billowing out of the Sahara Desert in Africa can impact Atlantic hurricanes. According to the University of Miami, the Saharan Air Layer – a mass of dry, hot, and dust-laden air that forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer, and early fall, and moves over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean – can suppress tropical cyclone formation.
"As far as the Saharan dust, it's been the lowest on record so far this hurricane season. This could actually be a symptom of less robust tropical waves that transport the dust across the Atlantic, but over the past week, the waves have been noticeably stronger," Lowry said.
"Dust seasonally drops off quickly in August, so, except for sporadic outbreaks, Saharan dust becomes less of a factor in August and September," he added.
As for the Bermuda High, a strong area of high pressure in the Atlantic, Hazelton said, "the stronger Bermuda High that has been present this summer (and brought a lot of the moisture into the U.S. that has enhanced the flooding) can also bring down more dry air from near Europe into the Atlantic, suppressing hurricane formation. We'll see if that pattern changes as we head into mid August."
Rough hurricane season still expected
The 2025 season is still expected to have 13 to 19 named storms, and six to 10 of those will become hurricanes, according to a preseason forecast from NOAA. The agency's website underscores the importance of being prepared regardless of the hurricane season forecast.
The ultimate preparedness checklist: How to prepare your house for a hurricane
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season 2025 is about to heat up, forecast says